I’ll start this time without the obligatory military analogy (don’t worry, it’s coming). I am scheduled to take the screaming baton from Katie on Tuesday (tomorrow!) on a permanent basis, inaugurating a long civil war. Okay, I’m ready for that. I mean I’m not, but I’m expecting 10 hours of fury and so I have ordered my mind such that he is not going to break me with an unimaginative frontal assault. Then on Friday I had a gout flare, and later that day a scratchy throat turned into a headache and a fever. Fine, I’ll smack down the gout flare with a 3mg colchicine blast and it’ll be gone by Monday. The other business will run its course or abate by Tuesday. Then the hard drive in my Mac died and I lost a year’s worth of data, analysis, rankings and original research, everything from my assessment of the greatest field generals in history to a twelve-year price history of more than 500 stocks to twenty years of print run and pricing data for modern age comic books. This is data that is not available anywhere, or not for less than $5000, and I can’t replace it or recreate it. The latter fact is especially crushing: the biggest reason why I can’t replace it is that I can’t even call to mind more than a fraction of what was lost. For months or years going forward, I will experience over and over again the sensation of wanting elusive information, then remembering that I had exactly what I want, but that it’s gone. Anyone who knows me, really knows me, is aware of how much of who I am is this making of lists and rankings, and the gathering and refinement of data to draw conclusions, some profound and some less so. It feels like I’ve lost functionality somehow, because what I see in the world is data and how to use it, and now I’m half blind. I don’t complain much in this forum. I understand that I could, because it’s my forum, but I don’t enjoy it, really. It’s no fun thinking about how bad things suck, and I would always rather think about what I’m going to do to win anyway. This has really got me, though, because it’s going to take so much time just to size up the loss that I can’t put myself past it. I have to dwell on it for a while so that I can try to remember everything that I had. I don’t know when I’ll get another FSX update done, for example, because I lost all the price history and the component weightings and the index average formulas when my market data spreadsheet vanished. I know I can create something serviceable, but I’m not sure I can recreate what I had and, worse, I’m having trouble getting motivated to redo all the things I’ve done. The gout and headache and sore throat and fever are partially to blame for that, of course, and maybe when I’m healthy I’ll have my creative drive restored as well. I went to the doctor today and the quick strep test was negative, but they’re sending off for a culture and I’m getting some Zithromax because it evidently really seems a lot like strep.
Taken together, this past weekend has felt like as comprehensive a personal defeat as I’ve suffered since my recovery (still nothing compared to that, of course). It probably sounds crazy for me to say that, considering my Mom died in May of last year, but as nasty as that was, I was able to take the full measure of the situation in a relatively short period of time and devise a plan to do what had to be done. And I’m okay with how I handled it all. My sister posted this weekend about some unresolved feelings of regret she has, and I understand what she’s saying, but be assured I feel nothing of the sort. Mom died that week in particular because of medical malpractice, and she put herself in the debased condition that precipitated her death. We could not have overridden her husband’s authority to take direct control of her affairs, and none of us could have unilaterally changed our relationships with her. She dominated those relationships, primarily through surprise and sabotage. I did what I could, and more than was required. I have the tactical and psychological underpinnings in place to get myself entirely beyond that tragedy. Am I going to have the occasional sobbing breakdown because my Mom is dead? Sure I am. I still have those moments when I think about my Dad and he’s been dead for 17 years. But this, this loss of a year of my work, could have been prevented by less sloppy data backup practices. It is my fault. Well, it’s the fault of Apple, whose products I can now happily boycott, but I could have taken steps to limit the carnage. And I didn’t.
In 1806, the mighty Prussian army marched forth from Berlin to sort out the upstart French Emperor, having been at peace with France since 1796, when Napoleon was a mere artillery commander in the Army of Italy. This was, after all, the army of Frederick the Great, the terror of 18th Century Europe, and the French should have been terrified. But Frederick had been dead for 20 years, and those years had not been kind to the institution he employed to such devastating effect. With astounding overconfidence they rushed to meet the Grande Armee without waiting to be enforced by Russia from the East. In the resulting Battles of Jena and Auerstadt the Prussians were annihilated and Napoleon marched triumphantly into Berlin. Upon visiting the grave of Frederick the Great, he remarked to his marshals that had Frederick still lived, they would not be in Berlin that day. He was right, and anyone who doubted the scale of the Prussians’ folly did so no longer when the 1807 Treaties of Tilsit stripped Prussia of half her territory and relegated her to a vassal of France. It was as shocking and swift a fall for a Great Power as has been seen before or since.
In 1905, the Russian Empire stood at the end of two centuries of expansion that had made it the world’s largest contiguous state–as it is today. Russia needed a warm-water port in the Pacific, it’s leaders reckoned, if it was to project naval power around the world. The Russians found themselves pitted against the upstart Empire of Japan for control of Port Arthur, in China, as well as for overall dominance in Far Eastern Asia. The Russians sent a powerful fleet around the world to China, and expected to easily defeat a people they believed to be technologically and racially inferior. But at the Battle of Tsushima Japanese Admiral Togo crossed the T of the Russian Fleet and delivered for Japan as complete a naval victory as could have been imagined. The Russians lost the war and the shock of the defeat convulsed Russian society, forcing the Tsar to accept a limited constitution.
Why do I mention these two undeniably atrocious defeats in the context of my major setback? Jena-Auerstadt shocked the Prussian establishment, but when it looked inward it found its intrinsic strength. Reformers held sway in the military thereafter, and by the time Napoleon’s army was broken in Russia in 1812, the Prussians were prepared to reassert themselves as a leading force in Europe. Blucher’s Prussians were a decisive factor in slamming the door on Napoleon once and for all at Waterloo. The reforms continued and Prussia was transformed into the most dynamic state in greater Germany, eclipsing Austria and finally installing Kaiser Wilhelm I on the throne of a German Empire in 1871, in the Hall of Mirrors in Versailles, no less. The power of the Prussian military machine was not finally broken until 1945, and even then it took the combined efforts of the world’s two superpowers to win through to absolute victory. Russia also looked inward after Tsushima, and it saw irreparable cracks in the foundation of Russian society. The absolutist monarchy was out of touch with the peasantry and unable to recruit and co-opt the educated, largely emigre intelligensia. When those men returned to Russia during the First World War, Social Democrats, Mensheviks and, of course, Bolsheviks, they came to destroy. The Tsarist government saw no long-term strength and salvation for itself, and sought only to hold the edifice together as long as possible–12 more years, as it happened.
I’m pretty busted up right now, and I don’t see clearly what I need to do first. But I am determined that this will be a Jena-Auerstadt moment in my work, and not my Tsushima.