Mr. Sensitive

May 31, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:53

No Fed news = no market move.  ‘Taper’ talk accelerating into the Friday close=Dow down 200 points.  Any questions?

The Family Stock Index outperformed the broader market despite joining in Friday’s selloff into the close.  The FSX held on to a weekly gain until the final ten minutes of trading only to close down 0.5% to 15,604.  Breadth was fairly tight, with decliners edging advancers 15 to 10.  The rally’s momentum has clearly stalled, but this hardly classifies as a reversal of the bullish trend—the FSX is just 3.2% below its all-time intraday high set last week.  We could easily break the 50-day SMA (15,387) without causing me any concern; the 15,000 level is more significant, as it represents both the 100-day moving average and a key psychological level.  More broadly, the bull trend remains intact so long as we stay above the 200-day SMA, and that’s still 1,600 points below the current level.  So there’s nothing to worry about—yet.  That being said, if we get a blowout jobs report next week and the 10-year Treasury yield pushes toward 2.5%, we could easily test that 15K level in the next two weeks.

Advancers

  • Lee (TGI) +3.5%.  I can relate to Ben Bernanke; what secondary-market Treasury and MBS purchases are to him, Effexor is to me.  If $20 billion a month isn’t enough, double it; if that’s still not enough, double it again.  I don’t think I’ll have to go as high as 85 billion, but when the alternative is deep depression—economic or otherwise—you can’t afford to be stingy with the stimulus.
  • Ruby (RJET +2.8%.) and Zondro (ZQK +1.4%).  Ruby and Zondro are locked in a vicious battle for the #1 ranking among FSX performers this year, with RJET leading ZQK +88.9% to +85.2%.  Zondro took the lead midweek, but Ruby caught him yet again, none of which should be surprising in light of how much the two combatants have in common.  Think about it: both are mammals, both live in states ending in ‘Carolina,’ both prefer to sleep at night rather than during the day—it’s uncanny, really.  I’m pulling for Ruby in this titanic struggle, even though everyone knows Reagan’s going to win in the end.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +2.1%.  The big news this week is that Charlotte’s going back to school, evidently to become a Plant Master.  The market sniffed this one out months ago—ICE was up 35% YTD prior to this week’s announcement—so the fact that investors didn’t sell the news after buying the rumor so aggressively is a strong endorsement of her decision.  Here’s what investors are buying:

atom1

I’m sold.

  • Justin (SCI) +1%.  Justin shelled out $1.1 billion this week to buy rival funeral services firm Stewart Enterprises as he drives consolidation in the death industry (that’s the Street’s take—I swear I didn’t make it up).  I’m not sure how he decided how much he should pay; I tend to think Death+Death=Death.  If Justin can get to Death3, well, then he’ll have something.

death3

Something bad.

Decliners

  • Brinkley (BCO) -1.5%.  Speaking of death, BCO has been dead money in 2013, down 5% while the S&P 500 has climbed 14%.  Not only that, but BCO recently formed a ‘death cross’ chart pattern, with the 200-day moving average crossing over the 50-day—a notoriously bearish technical indicator.  How can Brinky turn this around?  An improved approach to investor relations would be a good start—growling doesn’t make the best first impression.
  • Ed Winston (ED) -2.7%.  Neither does sharp, sudden barking.
  • Reagan (REGN) -3.4%.  This may not come as a surprise, but Reagan didn’t win the tug-of-war at Field Day today.  As slight as she is, Brinky might have made a stronger showing that Reagan could.
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) -4.2%.  Has Grandpa found time to work on his delts and his lats while he’s been house-sitting for Dustin and Lisa in Blacksburg?  Investors are clearly worried.  I don’t know precisely when Brinky will hit the beach this summer, but I know he’ll hit hard.  Also, the growling can be disorienting when you’re not expecting it.
Name Ticker 5/31/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.83 -0.40
Charlotte ICE $171.21 +3.55
Dustin DST $68.18 -0.01
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $24.56 -0.18
Icarus FAST $52.18 +0.27
Jenny JNY $14.57 -0.14
Jodi Ann JOY $54.08 -1.34
Justin SCI $17.98 +0.16
Katie CATY $20.29 -0.08
Lee TGI $77.65 +2.64
Lisa LNCE $25.92 -0.51
Lucas LEI $1.34 +0.02
Lulu LULU $77.81 -1.08
Marcus MCS $12.85 -0.38
Mario T.E. MGEE $53.37 -2.33
Mario T.Y. MAR $42.01 -0.76
Namilita NL $11.68 -0.03
Nicole E. NICE $36.90 +0.33
Nicole M. COLM $60.22 +0.97
Reagan REGN $241.88 -8.43
Ruby RJET $10.73 +0.29
Wilson WILC $6.83 -0.12
Winston ED $57.07 -1.59
Zero ZAGG $5.05 +0.03
Zondro ZQK $7.87 +0.11

 

May 24, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:40

It’s all about the Fed right now.  All.  About.  The Fed.  Anyone who says otherwise is full of crap, and suffice it to say that there are a lot of very vocal crap-sacks making the rounds.  Too bad for them that market isn’t listening.  These two paragraphs from Yahoo! Finance’s Market Update on Tuesday capture it perfectly:

The major averages rallied to their highs as Ben Bernanke’s prepared comments made the rounds. During his remarks, the Fed Chairman said premature tightening of monetary policy could stall the pace of recovery.

However, Mr. Bernanke did say the Fed could cut the pace of purchases in the next few meetings. This caveat resonated with the market as equities slipped from their early highs while Treasury yields jumped to fresh highs.

So the Fed giveth, and the Fed taketh away.  The reaction on Wednesday was even more pronounced, as renewed talk of the Fed ‘tapering’ bond purchases knocked the Dow down 300 points from its intraday highs.  I am sick and tired of the bulls’ oblivious argument that tapering or terminating QE won’t be a problem for the market because the Fed won’t consider tightening policy until economic growth has produced significant, sustained employment growth.  This is wrong and dumb, and the market itself is doing everything it can to tell you that tapering will be a huge problem, albeit perhaps only in the short-term.  What the bulls are doing is lumping financial asset prices and economic activity into one basket and declaring that if one’s great, so’s the other.  Asset prices are driven by sentiment, and the Fed has been the guarantor of bullish sentiment since the market bottomed in March 2009.  The bulls want you to believe that the market will make the instant, painless leap from ‘In Fed We Trust’ to relying on the economy alone to support asset prices.  That is, again, wrong and dumb.  The market can make the leap—don’t get me wrong—but it will be neither instant nor painless.  When the Fed decides to reduce its presence in the bond market, the stock market will correct sharply.  The market is making that crystal clear with its behavior this week and throughout the 2013 bull run, and investors ignore its warnings at their peril.  In fact, not all investors are ignoring the risk.  The VIX has been rising, however slowly, even as stocks have continued to climb steadily.  Why?  Investors are buying puts under the market while volatility is still cheap.  That means they aren’t selling their long positions—they believe in the market long-term—but they are buying derivative protection in anticipation of a short-term price shock.

The Family Stock Index reached a new all-time intraday high of 16,119 on Wednesday only to subsequently plunge 500 points in the next two trading sessions.  The FSX recovered slightly from its worst levels of the Friday session, closing down 1.8% on the week to 15,675.  It may seem strange, but this week’s action actually leaves me feeling more positive than last week’s series of record closes did.  It was real ugly this morning, with only three stocks up for the week, but as the day wore on more and more of us flipped from red to green.  Breadth was still lousy—18 decliners to 7 advancers—but it had been atrocious.  Friday afternoon reversals in Brinky, Nicole E., and even my own TGI provided unexpected boosts to the FSX, and Justin stole the show with a three percent pop in a flat market.  It looked for all the world like the FSX wanted to roll over this morning, so this afternoon’s relative strength was a pleasant surprise.

Advancers

  • Lucas (LEI) +3.9%.  Lucas was up 14% through yesterday as investors piled into LEI in celebration of the impending end of middle school.  Then the market remembered that only in Wytheville are they crazy enough to send kids to high school in eighth grade, so Lucas has to spend yet another year in the no-man’s-land of the educational process.
  • Justin (SCI) 3.2%.  Speaking of the educational process, isn’t it about time for Justin to go back to school to get another degree in a completely different discipline?  Why not try something meaty this time, maybe pick up a trade?  I’m thinking welding.
  • Icarus (FAST +1.6%), Zondro (ZQK +1.0%), and Wilson (WILC +0.3%).  When we discussed the bull market in dogs, Katie suggested I re-write Don Henley’s “Boys of Summer” as “Dogs of Summer,” which I agreed that I could totally do if not for needing to re-write several chapters of the Worst Book Ever for the umpteenth time.  Then Charlotte should do it, Katie argued.  Charlotte should write “Dogs of Summer,” record it, make a video of it featuring Zero and the cats, and YouTube that sucker.  Championship.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +0.9%.  Brinky’s decided to bypass talking and go directly to reading.  Earlier this week I asked him to bring me a book, and he actually found a book and brought it to me.  Maybe you think that’s not a singular performance for a two-year-old, but this particular two-year-old typically doesn’t do requests.  Later in the week Katie found him sitting on his mattress reading a volume of the collected works of William Blake he’d taken off the bookshelf.  If it were me, I’d probably start with Mother Goose and work my way up to Blake, but what do I know?
  • Lee (TGI) +0.7%.  I don’t know anything about anything is what.

Decliners

  • Jenny (JNY) -2.7%.  Jenny knows all too well how generally useless I am as a font of relevant knowledge.  Now that she’s reading Fellowship of the Ring she’s discovered that there is one thing on which I am extremely well-versed, and that’s the history of Middle-Earth.  I suspect she may already be regretting her discovery.
  • Dustin (DST) -4.4%.  They say that once you golf in Hawaii, you never go back.  Except then they also say you have to go back because you have a non-refundable plane ticket and you live in Blacksburg, not Hawaii.  So that sucks.
  • Ed Winston (ED) -3.5%.  They say once you wake up a sleeping baby by yelping or yipping for no good reason, you never go back.  Also you get the tar kicked out of you.
  • Ruby (RJET) -4.7%.  They say once you lift Brinky, you never go back to being able to stand up all the way.  By they, in this case, I mean me.
  • Charlotte (ICE) -5.5%.  Better get to work on that “Dogs of Summer” video, Sis.  Zero’s not getting any younger.
  • Marcus (MCS) -5.8%.  Once school’s over, do you think Jodi Ann will make Marcus dress like a butler and serve her croissants and chilled water every time she rings a bell?  If not, why not?
  • Reagan (REGN) -6.2%.  Do you know anyone who needs a checklist just to remember to flush the toilet?  Nope, me neither.
Name Ticker 5/24/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.23 +0.25
Charlotte ICE $167.66 -9.75
Dustin DST $68.19 -3.17
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $24.74 -0.59
Icarus FAST $51.91 +0.81
Jenny JNY $14.71 -0.41
Jodi Ann JOY $55.42 -1.32
Justin SCI $17.82 +0.55
Katie CATY $20.37 -0.26
Lee TGI $75.01 +0.49
Lisa LNCE $26.43 -0.29
Lucas LEI $1.32 +0.05
Lulu LULU $78.89 -2.16
Marcus MCS $13.23 -0.81
Mario T.E. MGEE $55.70 -1.03
Mario T.Y. MAR $42.77 -0.96
Namilita NL $11.71 -0.15
Nicole E. NICE $36.57 -0.06
Nicole M. COLM $59.25 -1.24
Reagan REGN $250.31 -16.66
Ruby RJET $10.44 -0.52
Wilson WILC $6.95 +0.02
Winston ED $58.66 -2.13
Zero ZAGG $5.02 -0.01
Zondro ZQK $7.76 +0.08

Did You Unbutton Your Shirt, Or Was It The Mer-men?

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:57

adventure409

Does Geoff’s shirt even have buttons?

So, Supergirl.  I like the hair, but that is probably the worst costume ever, including the time that you started dressing like an extra in Olivia Newton-John’s “Physical” video.

supergirl20

But what about Satan Girl?  She looks pretty cute, right?

satangirl

Do you think a girl like that and a guy like me…?  No?  Is it because I’m a happily-married man and she’s a tiny head on the front of a comic book printed six years before I was born?

Then, yeah, that’s a good point.

 

The Holocaust of Today

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:39

redwolf9

Not exactly how I imagined it.  There should be wolves, yes, but also spiders and probably flying sharks.

Looks Like No

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:34

ourarmyatwar199

Although that thing looks more like an anteater to me.  Leave it to Hitler to weaponize anteaters.

Words Are Like Weapons

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:29

They wound sometimes.

teentitans21

To be fair to both Roy and Hank, this sort of thing might not keep happening if Donna would just put some pants on.

May 17, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:47

Another week, another parade of new highs for the major stock market averages.  I don’t know when this rally will end, but I know it will end badly when it does.  The economy may be improving—and I believe it is—and stock valuations may not be nearly as stretched as they were at previous market tops, but it won’t matter.  The Federal Reserve is driving this equity bull market, period.  The Fed is spending $85 billion a month buying bonds; thus there is always a bid in the bond market regardless of the piddling rates bonds now pay; thus the Fed is crowding out any and all investors who want to buy bonds for the interest income; thus investors looking for returns (i.e., everyone) have no place to go but equities.  What else can you do?  You have to have large amounts of excess capital to buy real estate, so that’s off the table for most folks.  Commodities—another option—are in a grinding bear market and don’t provide interest or dividend income to cushion the price declines.  It’s stocks or nothing, so as long as the Fed is distorting the bond market, stocks will rally.  This is the reason stocks are rallying, and once the Fed slows the rate of bond-buying, the S&P 500 will drop ten to twenty percent, no matter what the economy is doing.  If the Fed shuts down quantitative easing altogether, it’ll be more like 30 percent.  If the Fed actually gets worried about inflation and raises short-term rates, we’re looking at a 50% drop.  I’m not saying that investors won’t rediscover fundamentals after the rout is over, or that stocks won’t subsequently regain much of the ground they lose—that will depend on the state of the economy and the effect the rout has on investor psychology.  But make no mistake: there will be a rout.  Bernanke’s grand plan to stimulate the economy may work, and it may not; if it works, the labor market will improve and GDP will rise—and the market will crash anyway.  Maybe Bernanke accepts a crash in financial asset prices as the cost of reviving the real economy—that seems possible.  If that’s his thinking, he certainly can’t say so.  It would be nice if he could get some help from our elected officials, but I doubt he’s holding his breath.  In fact, if the Republicans make gains in next year’s midterms, that $85 billion a month is more likely to go to $185 billion than to $0.

Wait…isn’t that exactly what I wrote last week?  Why, yes, it is.  Stocks turned in yet another week of steady gains (S&P +2%) for no real reason other than why not?  When the market gives me something—anything—new to write about, I’ll be happy to write about it.  Every single word I wrote last week about stocks, bonds, fiscal policy and monetary policy is true to the exact same extent that it was (meaning if you thought that analysis was crap, this is crap to the exact same extent).

Does Europe even still exist?  Someone should check.

The Family Stock Index broke through 16,000 for the first time on Thursday, with this latest milestone coming just two months after our first close above 15,000.  Internals were favorable (19 advancers to 6 decliners) and the number of new 52-week highs within the index—a whopping ten—is the largest I remember seeing in a single week.  How far have we run?  Consider this: the FSX could suffer a greater than six percent correction right now and still hold above the 15,000 level—a level we only reached for the first time two months ago.  Is there any reason to be concerned we’re nearing a top?  Reagan did hit a new all-time high on Tuesday before rolling over and closing down on the week, but that’s it, and that’s not much.  True, we need a boatload of awesomeness to come through for us in the back half of the year to justify this six-month rally, but with this kind of momentum, you’d be crazy to short the FSX here.

Katie’s handling the advancers & decliners this week (with my comments in parentheses) because I’m very busy listening to ‘Heart Attack’ on repeat.

Advancers

  • Jenny (JNY) +5.4%. – Because, you know, unexpected Great Wolf Lodge trip? What more could a Jenny want? Not much. Except for some music.
  • Zondro (ZQK) +4.3%. – Maybe he’s planning to go hang out with the Fig dogs while they’re gone. I think he’d like some new friends. Wilson isn’t exactly the most playful friend a dog could have.
  • Marcus (MCS) +3.8%. – Generation X is the best.  (Mr. Sensitive: Because of the chromium cover?)

generation-x-1-a

  • Charlotte (ICE) +3.1%. – Only about three more weeks of school, and then the girls will be ready for summer visits at Aunt Charlotte’s. Hopefully Charlotte’s ready too.  Really she’s up because she knows how good Grey’s Anatomy and Nashville were this week.
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) +3.1%. – Because we’re finally into summer weather. Dad likes it, and Mom apparently only really likes it when it’s hot.  And if mom’s happier, dad’s happier.
  • Katie (CATY) +3.0%. – I’m taking a day of vacation on Monday to hang out with my family and that seems like (Mr. S: seems like?) cause for celebration.  (Mr. S: And she’s going to a blogging conference on Saturday—I kid you not.)
  • Justin (SCI) +1.9%. – He’s hoping he can get back to this look: http://www.flickr.com/photos/catori_inteus/8731314699/in/photostream If he can, he’s definitely a winner. It would require a little more chub than he has these days though.  (Mr. S: Did you not see how fat Justin’s gotten when he was here two weeks ago?  He left dents in the kitchen floor when he was walking through.  Unless that was Brinky.)

Decliners

  • Ed Winston (ED) -1.3%. – Mario and Nicole are entering a phase of being perhaps a little distracted and less into the life of Ed Winston than they have been up until now.
  • Reagan (REGN) -2.4%. – No Great Wolf Lodge. And if we didn’t remind her, no good grades because she can’t remember to walk out the door with things like major projects she just set down on the table five minutes ago in order to pick up her backpack and then completely forgot.
  • Zero (ZAGG) -4.0%. – Life as a blonde isn’t as great as expected, I guess. I think it looks good though.   (Mr. S:  What?)
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -5.0%. – You know what the heat of summer means in Jodi Ann’s condition? Swelling. More swelling than you can ever imagine. I hope you remember to take off your wedding ring before it’s stuck forever.  (Mr. S: You can always get another wedding ring; I think I’m on my fourth.)

 

Name Ticker 5/17/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.98 +0.28
Charlotte ICE $177.41 +5.31
Dustin DST $71.36 +1.27
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $25.33 +0.35
Icarus FAST $51.10 +0.32
Jenny JNY $15.12 +0.78
Jodi Ann JOY $56.74 -2.97
Justin SCI $17.27 +0.32
Katie CATY $20.63 +0.60
Lee TGI $74.52 +0.69
Lisa LNCE $26.72 +0.04
Lucas LEI $1.27 +0.01
Lulu LULU $81.05 +0.64
Marcus MCS $14.04 +0.52
Mario T.E. MGEE $56.73 +1.71
Mario T.Y. MAR $43.73 -0.24
Namilita NL $11.86 +0.32
Nicole E. NICE $36.63 +0.17
Nicole M. COLM $60.49 +0.97
Reagan REGN $266.97 -6.53
Ruby RJET $10.96 -0.04
Wilson WILC $6.93 +0.08
Winston ED $60.79 -0.78
Zero ZAGG $5.03 -0.21
Zondro ZQK $7.68 +0.32

I’m Sorry, Demi Lovato

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:16

Demi, my wife tells me that I heard your song ‘Heart Attack’ several weeks ago and I said that it was “boring.”  I don’t believe her lies, but in the event I did say something that stupid, I am so, so sorry.  I should have known that several years of questionable hair and makeup decisions didn’t mean the girl who gave the world ‘This Is Me’ from Camp Rock was gone forever.  ‘Heart Attack’ is just wonderful, and I love you again.

Know that however much I may have offended you, I’m the one who truly suffered.  After all, you have been able to listen to ‘Heart Attack’ on repeat all day for months, whereas my life has been empty that entire time.  Completely empty.

You are, of course, crazy, but aren’t we all, really?   I blame Joe Jonas.

May 13, 2013

Joel Stein Is Right About the Millennials

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 13:53

So here’s the cover of Time

millennials

which does a terrible disservice to Joel Stein’s article.  I say that Stein is right in his conclusion about the so-called Millennials for the simple reason that he doesn’t really come to a definitive conclusion.  The cover hints at some degree of balance in the assessment–lazy narcissists, yes, but they’ll save us?–but it skews negative, whereas the article itself is shockingly (to me) positive.  I came out of it feeling much better about the generation that’s following my own, and that’s not at all what I expected.  I understand that the purpose of the cover is to be provocative and arresting, but I also think it might be a test; a great deal of of the criticism of the article floating around the Internet is clearly based on the cover alone.  Doesn’t Stein realize every generation has complained about the morals of younger people, the Internet laments?  Yes, and he even includes a nice, big graphic about exactly that straddling pages 30 and 31.  Shouldn’t he try to appreciate the positive qualities of Millennials?  In fact, he tries a lot harder to appreciate them than I do, and he largely succeeds.  I highly recommend reading this article, if you haven’t.  Alas, it’s pretty long by Internet standards, which brings me to something which really concerns me: the pervasive inability and unwillingness to read, absorb, and process arguments and analyses of any significant length and complexity on the part of pretty much everyone.  The criticism of the Stein article itself reflects that problem, as there are obviously plenty of folks who read the cover and maybe the first few paragraphs (in which Stein reiterates negative stereotypes, setting up a subsequent reversal) and stopped there.  This state of serial distraction isn’t a Millennial problem–it’s an information technology problem.  The problem is that technology provides us with far more information than we can process productively and we haven’t–as a civilization–developed the discipline to judiciously slow the flow.  Ah, but we didn’t have traffic lights once upon a time–we’ll figure this out, too.

What is really amazing to me about the article is how eerily accurate the seemingly arbitrary line between Generation X and the Millennials seems to be in the context of my own family.  According to Stein’s article, the Millennials were born after 1980 and before 2000, meaning that my siblings and I straddle the line between generations.  If Stein is right, Marcus (’80) and I (’77) belong in Generation X, while Charlotte (’82) and Justin (’85) are Millennials.  (Yes, Marcus could go either way; I say he’s an X-man).  I’ll be damned if I don’t think that’s absolutely right.  It’s not as simple as Justin and Charlotte are Facebook people whereas Marcus and I are not…except it really is that simple.  Of course there are other significant differences between the four of us: the timing of our dad’s death (1993) meant that we grew up in (sometimes drastically) different circumstances; also Charlotte is a girl and girls are weird.  Nevertheless, Charlotte and Justin clearly have a different relationship with the outside world than Marcus and I do, and it didn’t occur to me before that some of that may be generational.  I’m not being critical, just making an observation.

I mean I absolutely am being critical, because that’s apparently something my people do.  Another takeaway from the Stein article: he doesn’t think much of Generation X.  He belongs to that generation, as do I, so we know lots of other Gen X people, and, in fact, we do mostly suck.

 

 

May 10, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:49

Another week, another parade of new highs for the major stock market averages.  I don’t know when this rally will end, but I know it will end badly when it does.  The economy may be improving—and I believe it is—and stock valuations may not be nearly as stretched as they were at previous market tops, but it won’t matter.  The Federal Reserve is driving this equity bull market, period.  The Fed is spending $85 billion a month buying bonds; thus there is always a bid in the bond market regardless of the piddling rates bonds now pay; thus the Fed is crowding out any and all investors who want to buy bonds for the interest income; thus investors looking for returns (i.e., everyone) have no place to go but equities.  What else can you do?  You have to have large amounts of excess capital to buy real estate, so that’s off the table for most folks.  Commodities—another option—are in a grinding bear market and don’t provide interest or dividend income to cushion the price declines.  It’s stocks or nothing, so as long as the Fed is distorting the bond market, stocks will rally.  This is the reason stocks are rallying, and once the Fed slows the rate of bond-buying, the S&P 500 will drop ten to twenty percent, no matter what the economy is doing.  If the Fed shuts down quantitative easing altogether, it’ll be more like 30 percent.  If the Fed actually gets worried about inflation and raises short-term rates, we’re looking at a 50% drop.  I’m not saying that investors won’t rediscover fundamentals after the rout is over, or that stocks won’t subsequently regain much of the ground they lose—that will depend on the state of the economy and the effect the rout has on investor psychology.  But make no mistake: there will be a rout.  Bernanke’s grand plan to stimulate the economy may work, and it may not; if it works, the labor market will improve and GDP will rise—and the market will crash anyway.  Maybe Bernanke accepts a crash in financial asset prices as the cost of reviving the real economy—that seems possible.  If that’s his thinking, he certainly can’t say so.  It would be nice if he could get some help from our elected officials, but I doubt he’s holding his breath.  In fact, if the Republicans make gains in next year’s midterms, that $85 billion a month is more likely to go to $185 billion than to $0.

The Family Stock Index lagged the broader market this week…at least until Jenny and Reagan decided they’d had enough of the shameful lollygagging and subsequently drove us to a new all-time high within sight of 16,000.  For the week, the FSX added 2% to close at 15,812, with more than half of those gains coming on Friday.  Internals were much improved: advancers outnumbered decliners by a 4-to-1 margin and five FSX members notched fresh 52-week highs.  Should we be trading at 20 times forward earnings?  Heavens, no.  So either earnings estimates are too low (yay!) or stock prices are too high (boo!), and I believe we’ll know which it is by the end of next month.

Advancers

  • Zondro (ZQK +9.7%) and Icarus (FAST+6.1%).  In the broader market we’re beginning to see a rotation out of the rally’s early-stage leaders (pharma, consumer staples) and into sectors that have thus far lagged (industrials, tech, financials).  Could we be on the verge of a similar rotation out of fast dogs and into slow dogs?  Looks like investors aren’t selling speed this week, so it’ll take new money to move the less-athletic canines of the FSX.
  • Jenny (JNY +5.6%.) and Reagan (REGN +2.8%).  Last night we watched old YouTube videos of Reagan and Jenny performing Rilo Kiley, Cheetah Girls, and High School Musical songs, circa 2008.  I’m not sure how that came about, but it did remind me of something my daughters sometimes forget: they’re best friends, and they have been since Reagan was born.  It’s pretty awesome.
  • LULU +5.3%.  Lulu was the worst performer in the FSX last quarter, but a furious six-week rally has taken her from -18% on the year to +6%.  I should be happy for her.  I’m not.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +5.2%.  Lisa’s going to Hawaii, and that’s the sort of thing that people really enjoy, or so I’m told.  As for me, I’d like to visit the U.S.S. Arizona memorial, absolutely, but that’s about it, and there are a lot of sharks between here and there.
  • Marcus (MCS +3.8%) and Jodi Ann (JOY +3.6%).  That first ultrasound image of your baby is exciting, sure, but one day you’ll look at the calendar and realize you’ve only got a year left to finish the basement you promised her she could move into when she turns thirteen.  What will you do then, I wonder?  Seriously, if you’ve got any idea, I’m listening.

Decliners

  • Mario the Elder (MGEE -0.8%).  Grandpa’s hitting the gym, trying to get ready for Brinky’s first visit to Hilton Head.  It won’t be enough.
  • Ruby (RJET) -3%.  Boo-boo’s planning to go to Brinky’s gymnastics class tomorrow, so she’ll find out what drove Grandpa to try and up his reps on the bench press: Brinky’s a lot stronger than he looks, and he looks pretty darn strong.
  • Winston (ED -3.3%) and Wilson (WILC  +0.1%).  Nope, no new money here.  The slow-dog sector of the FSX still has a lot of catching up to do.

 

Name Ticker 5/10/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.70 +0.26
Charlotte ICE $172.10 +0.08
Dustin DST $70.09 +0.73
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $24.98 +1.10
Icarus FAST $50.78 +2.92
Jenny JNY $14.34 +0.76
Jodi Ann JOY $59.71 +2.08
Justin SCI $16.95 +0.21
Katie CATY $20.03 +0.26
Lee TGI $73.83 +2.44
Lisa LNCE $26.68 +1.31
Lucas LEI $1.26 -0.04
Lulu LULU $80.41 +4.05
Marcus MCS $13.52 +0.50
Mario T.E. MGEE $55.02 -0.47
Mario T.Y. MAR $43.97 +0.96
Namilita NL $11.54 +0.13
Nicole E. NICE $36.46 +0.41
Nicole M. COLM $59.52 -0.73
Reagan REGN $273.50 +7.34
Ruby RJET $11.00 -0.34
Wilson WILC $6.85 +0.01
Winston ED $61.57 -2.09
Zero ZAGG $5.24 +0.24
Zondro ZQK $7.36 +0.65
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