Mr. Sensitive

October 29, 2010

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:08

Nothing happening in the markets apart from determined ambling toward monetary apocalypse; the S&P was unchanged today and for the week.  The FSX was likewise mired in poopy nothingness for most of that time, and was down slightly heading into the close.  Then Zero happened.  Thanks to him, we finished the week at 1058.29, up 2.6% and within two points of a new high.  All this despite my best efforts to ruin everything, for everyone, again.

Advancers

  • Zero (FRZ) +62%.  The Department of Justice announced that Zero is not an illegal monopoly, and even if he is, the government isn’t planning to do anything about it.  Zero is officially, legally, unstoppable.  Boom.  FRZ was averaging 34 thousand shares traded daily; today it did 3.4 MILLION shares.  Zero added 28 points to the FSX by himself, in a few minutes today.  Thank him if you see him.
  • Lisa (LSI) +11.7%.  I don’t want to sound like a fortune cookie, but it seems that a long contest of wills between Lisa and Dustin was settled this week in her favor.  Maybe he started making sure to leave the toilet seat down, I don’t know.
  • Katie (CATY) +5.7%.  Less than two months to the due date, but I think we’re looking at a fifteen-pound baby if it goes that long.

Decliners

  • Reagan (REGN) -4.6%.  Reagan is going back to the guidance counselor, this time for death obsession and being really sad (what they call depression if you’re a kid).  The death thing is my mother’s fault.  The thinking-too-much thing is my fault.  And also a little bit my mother’s fault.
  • Dustin (DST) -6.1%.  It doesn’t make sense to put down the toilet seat.  You’re done, so in your mind you’re already on your way out.  You’ve moved on from the toilet.  Why is that so hard for the ladies to understand?
  • LEE -13%.  That’s right, I did it again.  Three straight weeks in the unpole position, three straight double-digit down weeks, and an astounding 15 consecutive trading days without a single one positive (two flat, 13 down).  It’s so amazing, I almost don’t want it to end.  It’s like Joey says, “If you’re gonna do something wrong…do it right.”

Name 10/29/10 Change
Charlotte $14.43 +0.08
Dustin $43.27 -2.80
Icarus $10.54 -0.23
Jenny $14.51 -0.31
Justin $2.35 +0.15
Katie $13.60 +0.73
Lee $1.84 -0.27
Lisa $5.24 +0.55
Lucas $1.99 +0.01
Lulu $44.32 -0.44
Marcus $12.80 -0.16
Mario T.E. $11.69 -0.15
Mario T.Y. ¥20,850 -640
Marisa $20.30 -1.54
Nicole B. $17.31 -0.40
Nicole L. $60.51 -0.88
Reagan $26.11 -1.26
Ruby $3.68 +0.18
Wilson $6.51 -0.14
Zero $3.49 +1.31
Zondro $5.20 -0.02

October 28, 2010

Kitchen Perimeter Captured

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 14:31

I have taken the counters along the north-east perimeter of the kitchen, evacuating worthy appliances and instruments and slaughtering the filthy and infirm.  The counter-tile joints are recaulked and I have withdrawn to allow the application to set.  I have laid siege to both the stove and the sink.  There is little more I can do until the silicone is dry; I shall shred bedsheets until the children arrive.

Battle Plan – Blitz Day Four

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 09:31

Hard to see, but the idea is basic.  I am attacking in the north of the kitchen, attempting to clear and clean the counters and wall tiles for grouting purposes.  I have a single army, which I can spread somewhat along a line of battle to the north of the kitchen, but from which it is not practical to detach a corps or even a division.  I have three divisions in reserve, fewer than the standard four reserve divisions.  I have taken the laundry room and reduced the fastness of the refrigerator, so the enemy will receive no succor from those places.  I have some concerns about the narrow defile between the neutral far counter and the extremely hostile fish tank; any reserves and supplies must be funneled through there.  I have created a supply depot in the laundry room but I’m not the best when it comes to logistics for forward operations.  I will have another two full armies at my disposal tomorrow, but the fighting quality of those units is dubious and they tend toward undisciplined pillaging of the countryside if not strictly managed.  Better to do what I can today with the forces I have under my direct control.

October 27, 2010

Rat Skull Free

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 15:22

We lost too many good rags today, but the battle is won.  I will need to rehabilitate the surrounding area and so I don’t expect to take up any major operations for the remainder of the day.  Also my hands are splitting open in a few spots owing to the chemical dousing; it’s bad form to bleed all over the things one is trying to tidy up.

Floor Pelt

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 11:01

Able to displace the enemy’s principal bulwark with unexpected ease; the water and electrical connections stretch further than I realized.  No skulls or enskulled creatures detected.

The business on the floor there was not, however, loose material as one might hope and expect.  It was quite vigorously and uniformly attached and I found myself down amongst it, Ka-Bar in hand, skinning my floor.  The area has been cleared and cleaned and I am now allowing it a few minutes to dry.  I am still concerned that the enemy might have invested the underside of the refrigerator with detachable works, and I am preparing a strike to dislodge any such emplacements.  I am also discovering that I neglected to eat breakfast, and that on top of three hours of sleep last night is compromising my fitness.  Two of the three redoubts have been reduced and the third is besieged, so we remain on schedule and I can permit myself a peanut butter sandwich.

Operation Potential Rat Skull

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 08:35

The refrigerator fortress will fall, and it will be today.  The laundry room proved to be less tractable than I had hoped, this reality becoming apparent mid-morning on Monday.  I was forced in the end to continue the offensive into Tuesday and commit the equivalent of an entire second corps.  The painting was ultimately less intensive than I had expected, but only because the wall-scrubbing was significantly more so.  A bleach-induced nosebleed and a surprise spider produced further delays.  Now the cereal box purge, spice and pasta interdiction, and appliance de-fooding is complete and I have additional floor space to use as an anchor for my second line in the assault on the refrigerator.  It will be my Thiepval.  From the outside it may appear that minimal territory stands to be gained, and yet for those of us in the fight, there is no question of reversal and no allowance for an insulting cost/benefit analysis.  The enemy is there, with his potential rat skulls, and this cannot be borne.  I command that the ordinary calculus of utility be reversed: I say now the stronger the fortress, the stronger the imperative for its reduction, and the more bonkers the effort made to that end, and the devil take all prospects and probabilities.  I mark three redoubts: the top, the rear, and the underside.  All three are problematic, and the latter two rankle by virtue of threatening obscurity.   They will be taken in the order declared.  There is nothing for it but to attack; surveillance is not possible absent a logistical effort equal to that needed for the assault itself, and so it would be wasted effort.  I will prime the Pulverisateur, fix the perimeter, and go.

October 24, 2010

The Lion King

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 21:01

Here’s Marcus, missing from the fyoonurul at crises house.

Operation Mortal Coil – Reagan’s Version

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 20:48

Reagan writes stories at school (she picks the subject) and periodically batches of them are sent home for our reading pleasure.  What follows is one that arrived in the latest group.  Full size only on the first page so you can get the full effect of the illustration; the other pages are smaller size.

 

In case you can’t read and/or translate, here is my version:

Page 1 is pretty clear.  Crises House is Chris’ house, which is not where we actually had the ceremony, but that’s not important.  Crises House is better anyway.  I don’t know why Justin is evil or where Marcus, Zero and Nicole are.  Is it better to be absent, or to be evil?  Who can say?

Page 2 is a fantastic transition: “It was sad and cris has this alsome dog that I love.”  Alsome meaning awesome.

Page 3: “I had to pour ashes in the water.  And I really didn’t want to.  it was hard and sad[.] she lived…”  It was definitely hard and sad.  “she lived” is the beginning of a sentence that continues on the next page.

Page 4: “[…] five awers away.  But we got silly bands on the way there so I was dustracted by how pretty they were.  And on the way back I got one new comic and some food from sub sero (Zero’s Subs in Va. Beach).  and I twisted a mushen and a rubber soccer-ball came out but I […]”  The mushen in question was one of those gumball machines with toys in them outside Zero’s.  Reagan turned the knob and a toy came out even though she hadn’t put any money in.  This was one of the greatest experiences Reagan has ever had and she will never forget it.  She deserved that free rubber ball, if you ask me.

Page 5: “[…] gave it to Jenny to be a nice like shes not but I had a great time becuse I got so many new things. the end”  This page contains the requisite shot at her sister, and ends on an upbeat theme of getting more useless stuff.  My mom would have appreciated that.

 

 

First Floor Blitz

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 19:32

I am preparing to make a final push along a broad front encompassing almost the entire first floor.  Objectives are as follows:

  1. Replace the blinds in the family room.
  2. Miscellaneous floor repairs in the family room and dining room.
  3. Repair moulding in kitchen.
  4. Baseboard paint touch-ups in family room and dining room.
  5. Repair and paint water stains on dining room ceiling.
  6. Replace the weather seal on the front door destroyed by Fat One.
  7. Comprehensive cleaning in, behind (!!) and under (!!!) the refrigerator.  To my knowledge, the latter two tasks have never been undertaken in the ten years we have lived in this house.  I have visions of the baby reaching under the fridge, pulling out a piece of moldy food or a rat skull, and popping it in his mouth.  This cannot be.
  8. Recaulk all the caulk.
  9. Wash and paint the laundry room walls.
  10. Reattach the dryer to the external vent.  Will need a spell or a helpful gnome.
  11. Do something with the fish tank.  Cook incumbent layabout suckerfish and get new, motivated suckerfish.  I would be interested in a delay of this objective until I can be assisted by siblings and/or siblings-in-law.
  12. Replace boards in the hallway, ruined first by dogs (serial urination) and subsequently by me (chisel and wood filler).  This one may not get done because the IRR on the project is well below cost of capital.  And I don’t know how to do it.

Blitz starts tomorrow; writing continues spottily and unpredictably.   Operations to last until completion, Thanksgiving, or baby, whichever arrives first, with the latter hopefully being last.

October 23, 2010

FSX After Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 10:30

The equity markets continued the steady upward trend in October’s third week, with the S&P adding 0.6% on top of last week’s 0.9% gain.  The market had a plethora of earnings reports and forecasts to digest this week, and that tends to lead to repositioning between and within sectors rather than to the sort of broad movement that can follow significant economic news.  In general, it looks like most of the market leaders are beating earnings expectations, but then again they were already expected to beat expectations.  The result is that the trends that have been in place for months continue unperturbed, and crowded trades like AAPL and AMZN are getting even more crowded.  The action is positive overall, which is bad for the bears, but that positive action has been decidedly muted, and so the bulls are complaining as well.  I think we are looking at two possibilities.  First, the financials get over themselves and firm up.  This huge segment of the market has not participated in the September-October rally due to headline, legal and regulatory risk.  If some of that skepticism abates or is discounted, the financials could give the market its next leg up and allow overheated consumer technology stocks to take a breather.  That’s the bull case.  The bear case is one I’ve already made: this is a Nifty Fifty market in which the stellar performance of a handful of big names is concealing pervasive economic rot.  If these crowded trades, many of which I’ve mentioned, so much as correct, the weight of that otherwise-healthy pullback will pancake the whole rotten structure.  This is the problem you have when assets are aggressively overbought and they become dislocated from underlying economic conditions.  They are going up on momentum, and if they peak and fall, that same momentum functions like a wrecking ball when it hits the rest of the market.  This happened in 2000-2002 and it can happen again if a handoff from consumer technology doesn’t occur.  That is the bear case.

I can say definitively that the midterm election is crap and has nothing to do with anything.  Garbage market pundits will connect whatever happens in the elections to whatever happens in the markets, and they will act like the connection is an obvious one that they predicted.  Let me reiterate this: they will react as though their genius was validated NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS.  This is because they are pandering idiots.  If you never truly assess, you never need to reassess.  I can’t watch CNBC anymore because they’re drifting more and more into Fox News territory, in which they run insane right-wing talking points as headlines and insist they’re being objective because they put a question mark after the headline.  Something like “Obama healthcare plan a disaster?”  Will someone please call permanent bullshit on this kind of thing?  Then they have a so-called debate about an insane talking point that didn’t merit discussion in the first place.  The “debate” topic isn’t really that at all—it’s an accusation, and whoever is arguing to refute the accusation has to function like a defense attorney, not a debater.  Americans don’t like people who seem to be defensive, but that’s the role these “news” outfits assign the not-insane side.  I don’t feel bad for the dope on the not-insane side of “Obama healthcare plan a disaster?”  If the other guy challenges you to a duel, and he says you get a butter knife and he gets a gun, if you accept the challenge under those terms, whose fault is it really when you get shot?  But I do feel bad for any viewers who haven’t figured out the con yet.  Rich people don’t want to pay taxes.  That’s all they want.  My dad explained this to me a long time ago when he admitted he had started to vote Republican (his family was famously Democratic).  He said he made a lot of money now, and he wanted to keep it.  That’s the Republican slogan: I make a lot of money and I want to keep it.  And I respect that, I do.  I do not, however, respect anyone who is not rich yet votes for the party of the rich, because stupidity is contemptible.

Ugh.  American politics are depressing.  It could be worse.  I could be in France, protesting in the streets about how I should be able to live half my life in retirement and have it paid for by…magic?  The real reason the Germans stopped with the serial invading of France is that they realized that if you govern France, you have to govern French people.  No way do you waste all your awesome tanks when that’s the payoff.

The Family Stock Index was down again this week, the second straight week of declines against a positive market backdrop.  The FSX closed at 1031.82, lower by 0.7%, but well above the intraweek low around 1018.  Advance/decline ratio was as tight as you can get, with 11 stocks up and 10 down, but the index itself suffered disproportionately because the laggards lagged hard.  And guess who lagged the hardest?

Advancers

  • Justin (WOLF) +4.8%.  News school must suit him, judging by the 16% jump this month alone.  I can’t confirm that, though, as Poopface is in the midst of one of his off-the-grid spells.
  • Icarus (ICA) +4.0%.  If we needed confirmation.  As Justin goes, so goes his daemon/soul mate.
  • Mario the Younger (Nintendo, JP: 7974) +3.7%.  This augurs well for the 30th birthday present haul.  Bought a Wii recently, which I think amounts to self-dealing, not that the market frowns on such things.  The NASD, yes, the market itself, no.
  • Katie (CATY) +3.5%.  I think LBE3 is going to be a momma’s boy, because Katie keeps rising as we count down to December, and I keep, well, not.

 

Decliners

  • Charlotte (BOOT) -11.3%.  I asked for a little kickback last week, I know.  Well, here’s the kick…
  • LEE -13.2%.  …but with absolutely no back.  I have not had an up day since October 8th and I’ve lost more than 26% during the past two weeks.  I think the fundamental story is still in place and this is just the letdown after a short squeeze.  Also I feel like crap.  But the $1.90-2.10 area has provided a nice base in the past, and I finished my old papers after the close yesterday (with fire, no less).  I’m bound to get at least one up day out of next week, right?

Prices

Name 10/22/10 Change
Charlotte $14.35 -1.83
Dustin $46.07 -0.04
Icarus $10.77 +0.41
Jenny $14.82 -0.50
Justin $2.20 +0.10
Katie $12.87 +0.44
Lee $2.11 -0.32
Lisa $4.69 +0.03
Lucas $1.98 +0.02
Lulu $44.76 -1.27
Marcus $12.96 -0.15
Mario T.E. $11.84 +0.35
Mario T.Y. ¥21,490 +760
Marisa $21.84 +0.07
Nicole B. $17.71 -0.07
Nicole L. $61.39 +1.21
Reagan $27.37 -0.67
Ruby $3.50 -0.26
Wilson $6.65 +0.14
Zero $2.18 +0.01
Zondro $5.22 -0.04
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