Mr. Sensitive

September 13, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 19:35

Lee says:

U.S. stocks continued their September rally this week, nearly erasing all of the losses suffered in August.  What happened?  Hedgies came back from vacation after Labor Day, saw how badly they were trailing the indexes, and piled into high-beta names.  That’s why the Nasdaq has led the way this month; that’s why momentum plays like NFLX (Katie: Cool or uncool that I thought this was an NFL stock before I realized it must be Netflix. What has happened to me?), FB, TSLA, P, LNKD and GMCR continue to rip higher despite having indefensible valuations; that’s why this rally can continue.  It’s performance-chasing, period.  When will it end?  I don’t know.  What I do know is that it will end badly, at least for the crowded trades with no valuation support anywhere near current levels.

The Family Stock Index has outperformed during September to an even greater extent that it underperformed in August, with a two-week, seven percent surge that has more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 over that period.  Even during the technical breakdown, the FSX easily held above its 200-day moving average—preserving the long-term bullish trend—and has now crossed back over both the 100-day and 50-day SMA lines.  The strength is broad-based, as well: Marisa did give us a nice boost on Monday, but we would have beaten the S&P by 72 bps even without her.  The girls of summer (Reagan, Jenny, Ruby) have their mojo back after a tough August, and they’re the ones primarily responsible for this week’s 4% climb.  Even more reassuring is the rally in three laggards—Mario TY, Jodi Ann, and Brinkley—whose participation could mean a broadening of the FSX bull run.  Q4 is setting up to be the most eventful of the year, and a strong showing in the next few weeks would augur well for the final three months of 2013.

Katie and Jenny say:

Advancers

  • Marisa (MOLXA) +55%. So Marisa got sold. Even though she’s dead. Lee already told you her story.
  • Ruby (RJET) +8.6%. Mom’s looking forward to her 60th birthday next month. She’s healthier than ever and may even be considering Senior Olympics as a swimmer. I think her 60s are obviously going to be great.
  • Reagan (REGN) +8.4%. Jenny: She’s excited about Janelle moving to AG (Me: Boring) and she’s excited about this game today (Me: She’s at a football game tonight. Also boring). I think she’s getting used to the way things go finally. (Me: What does that even mean? Apparently she’s referring to schedules.) Me: I’m choosing to believe this means Reagan’s first grades of fourth grade are going to be awesome when I finally get to see them. And that she’s going to listen to me and try Battle of the Books and be the most amazing Battler ever. Like Lee at MACC.
  • Jenny (JNY) +5.8%. Jenny: I’m up because I did really good on that test and I’m proud of myself about it, and I wasn’t late once this week, so I’m getting better at my locker. (She wasn’t late last week either, but whatever.) Me: I think she’s up because I brought her project that she forgot at home this week, so she wasn’t penalized for being late. And because she’s going to do Battle of the Books.
  • Mario the Younger (MAR) +5.5%. Jenny: I don’t know what’s going on with him. Anything at work? Me: Yes, there’s much golf computers/computer golf in his future.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +5.5%. Jenny: Maybe she’s a big pregnant person now like she said she wanted to be. Me: It is kind of fun to be noticeably pregnant and eat all the food.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +5.2%. Jenny: He succeeded in getting in more trouble today. (Apparently he removed a part of the fireplace today.) Me: He’s feeling much better than last week, mostly due to the steroids he got on Monday. The steroids Lee thinks will lead him to the NFL one day. (Lee: my son doesn’t need steroids.)
  • Icarus (FAST) +4.6%. Jenny: Um, he’s, um…. (She’s so helpful.) He is, like, a dog. Yes. He’s a fast dog. Which is good. There. Happy? Me: I guess there’s nothing I can add to that.
  • Dustin (DST +3.9%) and Lisa (LNCE +3.4%) Jenny: Maybe Lucas is having a better year in school and it makes their life better. (I actually said this when she couldn’t think of something, but she said to say that she said it.)
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) +2.9%. Jenny: He’s excited Boo-boo turns 60 next month because he planned it or something. Me: Plus he’s looking forward to seeing us in the next couple weeks, which is always fun. Brinky can’t wait for his friend Grandpa to come visit. He may be so excited he decides to get in the car with him and leave.

Decliners

  • Winston (ED) -1.3%. Jenny: Winston is happy for the same reason Uncle Mario is. (Ignoring the fact that he’s down instead of up.) Winston’s sad. He could sense that I was recently reading a book about a pet cemetery. It’s actually about a girl who’s supernatural… (I’m going to stop typing the whole story now. Maybe Winston’s down because he may have to listen to it one day.)
  • LULU -1.6%. Jenny: She’s not allowed to have the same reason of the pet cemetery, is she? Maybe Winston sent her a secret message and told her about it, because she’s not as awesome and can’t sense my thoughts. Me: I think she may miss Marisa now that she’s moving on from our lives. Lulu shares Brinky’s room with him now, so we know she’s seen a lot of Marisa, and isn’t quite ready to let her go. Jenny: Maybe Lulu has the same powers as the girl in the book and can talk to dead animals, so she’s been talking to Marisa, and… (It’s too much. I have to quit typing that story.)
  • Zondro (ZQK) -2.3%. Jenny: I came into the kitchen to see him eating some pork off a plate, so I guess he’s happy about that. (Again, ignoring the fact that he’s down instead of up.)I’ve decided not to relate him to the pet cemetery book because he’s just a regular dog. Me: Mostly the school year just isn’t for Zondro. It involves waking up too early and staying outside too long.
  • Lucas (LEI) -4.4%. Jenny: I’m not allowed to say he’s half demon, am I? There are demons in a book I’m reading. Maybe he’s a half-demon! There are male half-demons in a book I’m reading…blah, blah, blah. If he was a half-demon, he would have been on the rebel side, and they just lost a fight.
Name Ticker 9/13/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.15 +1.33
Charlotte ICE $180.53 +1.14
Dustin DST $74.78 +2.80
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $38.32 +13.62
Icarus FAST $50.08 +2.19
Jenny JNY $15.29 +0.84
Jodi Ann JOY $53.80 +2.80
Justin SCI $18.43 +0.31
Katie CATY $22.40 +0.39
Lee TGI $74.90 +1.07
Lisa LNCE $28.32 +0.92
Lucas LEI $1.31 -0.06
Lulu LULU $68.37 -1.12
Marcus MCS $13.06 +0.14
Mario T.E. MGEE $52.07 +1.46
Mario T.Y. MAR $42.86 +2.24
Namilita NL $10.80 +0.05
Nicole E. NICE $39.00 +0.37
Nicole M. COLM $59.37 +0.74
Reagan REGN $289.97 +22.40
Ruby RJET $12.37 +0.98
Wilson WILC $7.04 +0.03
Winston ED $54.88 -0.71
Zero ZAGG $4.55 -0.04
Zondro ZQK $6.69 -0.16
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