Mr. Sensitive

August 2, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:49

U.S. stocks extended their year-long rally this week, pushing the S&P 500 into uncharted territory above 1,700.  This week’s earnings schedule was much lighter than the previous week’s, allowing investors to digest earlier reports and push first-half laggards Apple and Facebook to multi-month highs.  Facebook briefly traded above its May 2012 IPO price for the first time since…May 2012.  It now seems like the sell-side analysts who hated FB at $20 love it at $38, and traders who wouldn’t touch the stock at $25 expect it trade north of $40.  If you’re a long-term bull and you held FB from the low 20s through July’s 40% eruption, the drastic sentiment shift should worry you.  Bulls didn’t listen to the Street consensus before, and it paid off; I’d suggest the same strategy now.  Even if you like Facebook’s long term prospects—and the company’s mobile monetization strategy is best-in-class right now—it’s probably smart to lighten up here.  Yes, the stock could push up to $40 in the next several weeks, but a 40% move in a month is a lot for the market to digest, and I believe you can take profits now and buy in at a more attractive level several months out.

The July employment report showed an increase of 162,000 jobs versus the consensus forecast of 175,000.  This was trumpeted as a disappointment, a narrative the market failed to pick up (the S&P 500 was +0.1% on the day).  13K in a report rife with statistical gimmickry is clearly insignificant, and could easily disappear in next month’s revisions.  I know ‘ho-hum’ doesn’t make for great copy, but that’s the only credible response to this report.  Good thing CNBC editorial doesn’t care about credibility, otherwise they’d have had to dump Kernen and Santelli years ago, and then where would I go for partisan snark and histrionics?  Fox News?  That would be awful—Fox’s ticker is crap.

The bottom line on employment is this: the economy is improving, but jobs aren’t coming back due to outsourcing, automation, and corporate reliance on part-time and temporary labor—folks need to deal with that and stop pretending like this has anything to do with Obamacare or legislative gridlock.  If the American people want job growth and wage growth, they have to accept higher prices at Wal-mart, and they won’t.  If you won’t pay more—that is, if you only patronize the lowest-price retailers—you can’t expect corporations to pay you more.  Folks have to stop shopping at Wal-mart just because 2-liters are five cents cheaper there, stop voting for politicians who take money from multinational corporations just because they spend an hour in church on Sunday, and for Pete’s sake, unionize, or else they have to shut up.  End of diatribe.

The Family Stock Index rose 2.4% to reach a new all-time high this week, along with eight of its 25 components, just like last week and the week before that.  Ho-hum.

(See?  It’s not that hard to ho-hum.)

Advancers

  • Icarus (FAST) +7.6%.  Did you know Long Island’s actually pretty big?  And there’s trees and everything?  I thought it was basically the same as Staten Island and Manhattan Island, so, basically, a crowded, concrete butthole.  As more investors discover that Icarus doesn’t live in a crowded, concrete butthole, FAST stock could have another 20% of upside left.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +6.3%.  Charlotte survived an up north trip with her nieces and she begins her educational journey toward plant mastery this month.  The market had priced in the latter, but investors were nervous about the effects of 24 hours of Teen Beach Movie music on Charlotte’s brain.  Now that this hurdle has been cleared, ICE bulls—and masterless plants everywhere—can relax.
  • LULU +5.3%.  Lulu is at the height of her summer powers—the master bedroom in August smells like roasted cat ass and despair.  Plus I think she broke one of my fans.  I haven’t been forced to sleep downstairs on the couch yet, but the day may not be far off.
  • Dustin (DST) +4.1%.  Investors were caught flat-footed when the results of Dustin’s clandestine cloning program were made public this week.  I spent a little time with “Lucas” yesterday, and he told me that the only thing he was planning to do in Hilton Head this week is go to the driving range.  He was then kind enough to repeat himself at least twice more, in case I hadn’t understood—and, in fact, I still don’t understand.  Cloning technology is potentially dangerous, and investors must have been relieved to discover that Dustin isn’t using his discovery for evil—he’s just using it for golf.
  • Lee (TGI) +4.0%.  My book is my book, and no one knows better what to do with it than I do—or so I thought.  As my latest self-imposed deadline approached—I had declared that the first 100K words or so would go to my siblings on August 1st—investors panicked and sold TGI aggressively.  Last week’s 10% decline was my largest weekly drop of 2013, but it seems like an overreaction now.  Nervous investors were afraid that I was confident in my stewardship of my book; I’m not, and the market couldn’t be happier.
  • Nicole E. (NICE +3.7%) and Justin (SCI +2.9%).  IT’S ALL IN YOUR HANDS NOW BUT NO PRESSURE.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +3.2%.  Brinky’s in Hilton Head for his first parent-free vacation.  He’ll feel like a master artist approaching a blank canvas.  Maybe more like a bull charging at a blank canvas, but you get the idea.  The blank canvas is in trouble.

Decliners

  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) -0.5%.  I know it’s hard to believe that everything in your house is in the wrong place, but trust me, denial just makes the adjustment process more painful.
Name Ticker 8/2/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.57 +0.86
Charlotte ICE $188.44 +11.16
Dustin DST $72.40 +2.84
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $25.68 +0.52
Icarus FAST $50.24 +3.56
Jenny JNY $17.30 +0.45
Jodi Ann JOY $50.48 +1.65
Justin SCI $19.07 +0.53
Katie CATY $24.68 +0.73
Lee TGI $80.30 +3.08
Lisa LNCE $31.98 +0.65
Lucas LEI $1.36 -0.05
Lulu LULU $72.70 +3.68
Marcus MCS $13.23 +0.17
Mario T.E. MGEE $59.00 -0.31
Mario T.Y. MAR $42.42 +1.16
Namilita NL $11.36 +0.35
Nicole E. NICE $38.60 +1.37
Nicole M. COLM $64.58 -0.13
Reagan REGN $272.39 +3.18
Ruby RJET $13.85 +0.28
Wilson WILC $7.17 +0.15
Winston ED $60.37 +0.44
Zero ZAGG $4.93 +0.08
Zondro ZQK $6.52 +0.19

 

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