Mr. Sensitive

July 12, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:44

There it went!

Did you miss it?  The bull market correction?  The buying opportunity investors have been waiting for since the beginning of the year?  It happened!  From June 18 to June 24 the S&P 500 pulled back from 1652 to 1573—a 5% correction that was even sharper in market-leading sectors like biotech, utilities and homebuilders.  Since June 24, the S&P 500 is up 100 points, setting a new all-time closing high just yesterday.  So that was it.

Oh, you were on vacation that week?  Whoops.

This week’s rally was—surprise!—all about the Fed.  The June swoon was driven by fears (unfounded, as it turns out) that Ben Bernanke was preparing to stop doing asset managers’ jobs for them by inflating bond prices directly and all other asset classes indirectly.  The other Fed governors have been swearing up and down that short rates aren’t going up any time soon, and the market has rallied in response, but it was really off to the races after Bernanke himself echoed that message in a Q&A Wednesday evening.  The result?  Traders bought everything Thursday and then gave themselves a three-day weekend.  After all, if the Fed’s not going anywhere until 2015, Wall Street might as well decamp to the Hamptons.

Less than two weeks after breaking through the 100-day moving average on the downside, the Family Stock Index made a series of all-time highs this week, ultimately closing up 2.6% to 16,141.  Traders rotated through the high-beta younger  FSX members: Lucas popped 15% on Monday, Jenny rallied 10% through Wednesday, then finally Reagan took the baton for an 11% two-day surge to end the week.  Brinky refused to help (+0.7%), as is his wont.

Advancers

  • Reagan (REGN) +14%.  Reagan went to Colonial Beach in Virginia with her friend Faith and Faith’s grandparents for a four-day vacation, and she’s confirmed that four days is too long to spend without any family around.  Know thyself, as Socrates said, sometime before he was executed for knowing too much.  Reagan discovered she doesn’t like life without her family, and there are worse things.  Being executed, for example.
  • Jenny (JNY) +10%.  Jenny’s been stockpiling moolah ahead of her 12th birthday next week, and she’d led me to believe she was planning on spending it on books and music.  Imagine my surprise when I learned—from CNBC, no less—that JNY was popping on news that Goldman Sachs has been hired to advise on terms of a sale.  Yes, the boost to the FSX was nice, and yes, we can find Jenny a new ticker, but a heads-up would have been nice.  I remember the days when my daughter would tell me if she’d been meeting with investment banks to discuss strategic options, but I guess those days are gone.  Why do teenagers have to be so secretive?  Does she think I’d have pushed her towards Morgan Stanley?  I mean, I would have, but it would have been a loving push.
  • Mario TE (MGEE) +6.6%.  Grandpa’s always watching his weight, and thus a lot of delicious pasta passes through this world without being properly savored.  But now, with Brinky’s inaugural Hilton Head visit just weeks away, it’s time to load up on carbs.  Grandpa can expect to burn a solid 10K calories a day chasing that big boy around the island.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +5.6%.  I think Jodi Ann might be halfway through her nine-month term of swollen servitude, give or take.  Admittedly, I’m coming at it from the husband/father perspective, and I’m fuzzy on the math after a few years, but I remember half of forever seeming pretty much like forever.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +4.8%.  Lisa has been on a tear since she visited Hawaii, up 25% in that time.  Trading at an all-time high and valued at 33 times earnings, the stock looks very overextended.  Unless the market knows something I don’t, Dustin and Lisa still plan to slum it here in the 48 through Lucas’ high school years.  Lucas better get his Doogie on or else investors are in for some disappointment.
  • LULU +4.4%.  Here’s what Katie and I had to say about Lulu yesterday:

Me: Did your cat do anything interesting this week?

Katie:  It’s your cat.

Me:  Terrible is the interesting it does.

So there you have it.

  • Nicole E. (NICE +3.2%) and Justin (SCI +3.4%).  Justin and Nicole are going to take my terrible mess of a giant novel and parlay it into wealth and acclaim—that’s the rumor in the market, anyway.  No pressure, though.

Decliners

  • Charlotte’s Zero (ZAGG -2.2%) and Charlotte’s cats (NL -2.9%).  Charlotte and her nieces are going on a road trip in two weeks, and the market doesn’t think Zero and the cats have a chance without her.  I think it’s far more likely that the cats eat Zero than that he eats the cats, but I understand investors playing it safe by selling both.
  • Lucas (LEI) -6.7%.  This was going to be the week.  Lucas cleared $1.40 on Monday, then $1.50, and finally $1.60 in early Tuesday trade.  The breakout was finally happening.  Only then the stock rolled over, closing at $1.46 on Tuesday, $1.38 on Wednesday, $1.31 on Thursday, and $1.26 today.  That about does it for me.  I’ve been rolling with LEI since the beginning, but if it can’t even hold $1.40, it isn’t ever going to escape penny-stock purgatory.  Lucas needs a change of scenery, and I’m not talking about Hawaii.  I’ll see what I can do.
  • Nicole M. (COLM) -6.1%.  Nicole hit a new 52-week high above $66 on Monday and, like Lucas, she couldn’t sustain the breakout and succumbed to a wave of selling.  In contrast to my feelings on LEI, though, I don’t think it’s time to throw in the towel on COLM.  This week’s drop didn’t violate any key technical levels and the short-term bull case remains intact.  The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day at the end of March and the stock hasn’t looked back, so investors still have room to be patient.  We’ll find out in the next week or so if Nicole will need to fall back on long-term support ($56.50, if you’re interested).

 

Name Ticker 7/12/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.88 +0.18
Charlotte ICE $180.67 +3.64
Dustin DST $69.70 +1.57
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $25.41 +0.15
Icarus FAST $47.12 +1.31
Jenny JNY $16.06 +1.42
Jodi Ann JOY $51.56 +2.74
Justin SCI $18.60 +0.62
Katie CATY $22.77 +0.24
Lee TGI $82.76 +1.86
Lisa LNCE $30.41 +1.39
Lucas LEI $1.26 -0.09
Lulu LULU $66.36 +2.81
Marcus MCS $13.28 +0.26
Mario T.E. MGEE $58.79 +3.64
Mario T.Y. MAR $41.73 +0.33
Namilita NL $10.61 -0.32
Nicole E. NICE $38.60 +1.21
Nicole M. COLM $62.51 -4.03
Reagan REGN $266.00 +32.52
Ruby RJET $11.63 +0.28
Wilson WILC $7.02 +0.08
Winston ED $59.20 +2.04
Zero ZAGG $5.35 -0.12
Zondro ZQK $6.88 -0.07
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