Mr. Sensitive

June 15, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 19:47

The markets were whipsawed by Japan and the Fed last week, and losses in the range of 1-1.5% for the major averages should hardly be shocking.  Well, it may not look like it just yet, but I believe that the low-volatility bullish uptrend in U.S. stocks has decisively failed.  Last week’s payrolls-driven rebound was short-lived, the VIX has continued to climb, and short-term positive technical levels have all failed to hold.  Commodities remain weak and the dollar has given back much of its recent advance, suggesting that the markets have little faith in the U.S. economy.  The Family Stock Index slid alongside its bigger siblings, dropping by 1.5% to close at 15,360.  Internals were ugly (18 decliners to 7 advancers), the FSX closed below the 50-day SMA three of the last four trading days, and our YTD performance advantage versus the S&P 500 has contracted to a mere 15 bps.  That would hardly be enough to cover my management fees, if I charged any (to myself?).  I was feeling pretty good about my stock-picking prowess when I was beating the benchmark by nearly four full percentage points through the first quarter of the year, but now I barely have enough alpha left to pay for a sandwich.  I’d say maybe I shouldn’t quit my day job, except I already did.  Like three-and-a-half years ago.

Whoops.

Advancers

  • Zero (ZAGG) +7.2%.  Jenny’s coming to visit!  Zero wants to catch up on Pretty Little Liars but he’s too embarrassed to sit and watch the show by himself—well, now he can shuffle around disdainfully in the background while Jenny and Chawly watch PLL, all the while soaking up the teen angst he secretly lives for.  Really, this week’s market pop should be more like 72%.
  • Ruby (RJET) +4.9%.  We had a lovely overnight stay at Aunt Dottie’s Bed & Breakfast in Wytheville, and Boo-boo is clearly destined for a second career in property management.  Why were we there?  Well, maybe Katie and I decided to have a romantic Blue Ridge weekend getaway, inspired by the Dustin-and-Lisa Hawaiian escapade.  Or maybe our entire family was driven out of our home by a two-day power outage and a furious, Dora-less Brinky.  I’ll leave it to the readers to guess, but here’s a hint: Katie and I certainly watched more Nick Jr. yesterday than on our last romantic getaway.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +2.3%.  Lisa and Dustin are determined to move to Hawaii after Lucas graduates from high school.  I have two responses.  #1—why not now?  Hawaiian schools were good enough for our president, weren’t they?  #2—nice try, sharks!  Dustin and Lisa are lovely people, but I wouldn’t fly to Hawaii to visit my own children.  Go back to the microscopic-sharks-in-the-shower idea fellas, that one had potential.
  • Jenny (JNY) +1.7%.  Jenny finished with straight As for the final quarter of the year.  Let that sink in.  I’m incredibly proud of her because she worked hard and maintained focus, and these outstanding results were as much about her attitude and effort as the second- and third-quarter disappointments were about carelessness and overconfidence.  Not only did Jenny make the changes in work habits we asked her to make, but she embraced the challenge and took responsibility for the outcome.  There were times when I would have been angry with the way one teacher in particular graded, had it been me, but Jenny doesn’t have that kind of anger and negativity in her.  (Reagan, on the other hand, is my Sith apprentice-in-waiting.)  I believe she learned that scoring well on academic placement tests doesn’t mean you don’t have to work—if anything, you have to work harder because the curriculum will be that much more challenging.  It was a terrific first year of middle school for Jenny, from her father’s perspective, and the market agrees (+31 YTD).

Decliners

  • Katie (CATY) -3.2%.  1999.  1999 was our last romantic getaway.  That’s not even in this century.
  • Marcus (MCS) -4.5%.  Another school year is coming to an end, and Marcus is preparing to spend many, many sweltering, scorching weeks trapped in a house with a pregnant lady.  Too bad there’s no way to prepare for that.
  • Reagan (REGN) -8%.  Jenny finished with straight As for the final quarter of the year.  Let that stink in.
  • LULU -19%.  Oh, man, what a mess.  Lulu hit a new all-time high of $82.50 on Monday ahead of earnings, beat on the top line and the bottom, but then got taken to the woodshed by investors, dropping $10 after hours and continuing to trade lower in the following days.  What happened?  The CEO abruptly announced her retirement, which would be problematic in and of itself.  Now consider that there’s no successor in place.  And not only is there no successor in place, but the company doesn’t even have any candidates—the board is only now forming a search committee.  And the ‘retiring’ CEO is all of 51 years old.  Maybe it’s all legit and there’s no fire whatsoever behind all this smoke, but with a P/E multiple of 45 (the market P/E is around 17), investors aren’t waiting to find out.  Good luck finding a new CEO, Lululemon investors.  Good luck brushing cat litter off your bed every night, new CEO.
Name Ticker 6/14/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.65 -0.07
Charlotte ICE $173.15 -1.55
Dustin DST $67.09 -0.99
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $24.82 -0.03
Icarus FAST $47.69 -0.72
Jenny JNY $14.53 +0.24
Jodi Ann JOY $52.86 -0.81
Justin SCI $17.81 -0.18
Katie CATY $19.61 -0.65
Lee TGI $78.95 -0.50
Lisa LNCE $27.25 +0.60
Lucas LEI $1.25 -0.02
Lulu LULU $66.15 -15.28
Marcus MCS $12.22 -0.58
Mario T.E. MGEE $54.49 +0.67
Mario T.Y. MAR $40.77 -0.89
Namilita NL $11.08 -0.28
Nicole E. NICE $37.49 -0.13
Nicole M. COLM $61.70 +0.78
Reagan REGN $236.93 -20.57
Ruby RJET $10.57 +0.49
Wilson WILC $6.84 -0.08
Winston ED $57.82 +0.39
Zero ZAGG $5.54 +0.37
Zondro ZQK $6.36 -0.47
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5 Comments »

  1. Great update, toogie! Do you remember that time we stopped at the Circle K during a romantic getaway?

    Comment by Katie Eure (@euregirlsandboy) — June 16, 2013 @ 07:44 | Reply

    • I’m glad the trip to the Circle K to get snacks was the most memorable part for you.

      Comment by lbej — June 16, 2013 @ 07:57 | Reply

  2. Ok, so this makes me really sad: “Katie (CATY) -3.2%. 1999. 1999 was our last romantic getaway. That’s not even in this century.” How can I help remedy this injustice?! Would you like to visit Blacksburg one weekend (we have nice Bed and Breakfasts and you could leave Brinkley with us while the girls are with the grandparents. Or, I would happily meet you half way and pick him up to babysit for a weekend so you two can romance it up. Seriously… I’m not joking. And, it does get easier once they are older… I promise 🙂

    Comment by Lisa Lamb Machi — June 17, 2013 @ 15:14 | Reply

    • Neither of us really wants to take a vacation without the kids (the girls, at least–Brinky is another matter entirely). My parents were big on romantic getaways, so I get it, but Katie and I just aren’t that way. It would stink if one of us was into destination-fueled romance and the other wasn’t, but an evening snuggled up on the couch doing Sporcle quizzes does it for us.

      Comment by lbej — June 17, 2013 @ 18:27 | Reply

  3. Ok, but the offer stands if you ever change your minds 🙂

    Comment by Lisa Lamb Machi — June 19, 2013 @ 09:23 | Reply


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