Mr. Sensitive

April 2, 2013

Battle of Long Island

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 10:01

In Friday’s FSX Update I attributed the six percent jump in MAR stock to the commanding lead Mario the Winner enjoyed in the NCAA brackets, wondering only whether his inevitable victory would be impressive enough to restore the market’s faith in his sports prescience.  Whoops.  Turns out Mario the Winner will remain Mario the Younger—with potentially explosive consequences for Justin and Nicole.

Going into the Final Four, Mario has 690 points, leading both Justin and Nicole E. by 70.  Tara is in fourth place with 530 points, but OSU’s loss to Wichita State leaves her with 0 potential points remaining.  Only Mario, Justin, Nicole, Katie and Marcus have potential points remaining.  Katie has 160 PPR and is 220 behind Mario, so she’s out, leaving four in the running.  All four picked Louisville to make the championship game, so the 160 points at stake there are irrelevant.  Subtracting those points from potential points remaining (let’s call the result marginal PPR) provides a clear picture of when and how the brackets will be won:

  • Mario has 0 marginal PPR – no remaining games give him any marginal advantage.  Mario is the only one of the four under consideration who did not pick Louisville to win the title, so if the Cardinals win on Monday, he will finish 4th.  If one of the other four teams wins, he will finish 2nd.
  • Marcus has 320 marginal PPR – he picked Louisville to win the title, so if that happens he will pass Mario.  Marcus can’t pass Justin or Nicole and can finish no higher than 3rd, but that would still be quite a reversal; he’s third from the bottom right now.
  • Nicole and Justin both picked Louisville to win the title, so they aren’t affected by Louisville’s performance one way or the other.  The other side of the bracket is where it gets interesting.  Nicole picked Syracuse to beat UNC in that game; Justin picked Michigan to beat UNLV.  They each got half the matchup correct, and—critically—the half each person got correct is the half that person picked to win.  Make sense?  Probably not.  Let’s try it this way:  Justin wins if Michigan wins the next game, and Nicole wins if Syracuse wins.

What it all means is that the 2013 NCAA family brackets will be decided on Saturday when Michigan plays Syracuse.  I hope Justin and Nicole will wager something significant on the outcome.  How about if Justin loses, he has to wear women’s underwear for a year (or if he already wears women’s underwear, he has to stop)?  Nicole’s not going to lose, so I’m not bothering to come up with a hypothetical; however, I might get around to sending her the Brinky Bowl she won in February.


1 Comment »

  1. I’ve been waiting very patiently for my Brinky Bowl winnings.

    Comment by nicole — April 2, 2013 @ 14:04 | Reply

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