Mr. Sensitive

March 8, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:15

Wowsers.

The stock market is at an all-time high, the big banks passed the Fed stress tests, and today’s unemployment report was flat-out fantastic.  Even with ongoing cuts in government employment, the economy created 236,000 jobs last month, much higher than consensus and well above trend.  The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7%, the lowest level since December 2008, and for the first time in recent years, the drop was driven more by an increase in hiring than a decline in workforce participation.  Could it be that the Fed’s QE-infinity gamble is actually going to work?

I don’t know; it’s a lot to take in.  236,000?  I didn’t see that coming.  Maybe I’ve been watching too much CNBC, listening to too many robber-barons who hope the recovery will fail so they can put their pet wolves back in charge of the henhouse.  Whatever the reason, I’m still skeptical about the strength of the job market.  Fortunately for the market, so is the Federal Reserve.

The jobs report gave us a big Friday open on the Dow before the sellers came in and pushed the market into negative territory.  But as has so often been the case this year, the bulls bought the dip and pushed the major averages back into the green.  This week given us a series of five-year highs for the S&P, 12-year highs for the Nasdaq Composite, and all-time highs for the Dow Industrials.  The Family Stock Index lagged the broader market over the past month after outperforming in January, but we also managed to take out the all-time high on Friday afternoon.  At a closing level of 14,930, the FSX was up 2.4% on the week, in line with the gains registered in the broader market, and breadth (19-6 advancers over decliners) was strong if not spectacular.  Six FSX stocks notched new 52-week highs this week, but the average stock still remains more than 10% below a one-year high, leaving us room to move higher if the laggards manage to gain traction.  Furthermore, only one of the week’s six 52-week highs was also an all-time high (TGI, if you can believe it), and if this is indeed an all-time bull market, more than one out of twenty-five historic highs will have to fall.  That being said, we’re so overbought right now that it’s silly, and the longer we go without a meaningful pullback and an extended period of consolidation, the more we start to look like the Nasdaq in 2000.  Looking like the Nasdaq in 2000 is very, very bad.

Advancers

  • Lucas (LEI) +12%.  Since February 20, when the FSX hit its prior high and fell back, I’ve maintained that we would not make a new high without participation from Lucas.  This week we finally got it.  He’s still in the red for the year, but if Lucas has turned the corner, we could easily take out 15K before the end of the month.
  • Jenny (JNY) +6.4%.  Speaking of turning the corner, Jenny has clawed back to an A in math and may be improving in English as well (we don’t know for certain because her slacker teacher hasn’t logged new grades in a month).  I gave her no chance at straight As just two weeks ago, but she’s now forcing me to rethink that.  I still wouldn’t give her better than a 50% chance, but she finally has some positive momentum.  Katie thinks she should get all the credit for having a heart-to-heart talk with her daughter to clarify our expectations; Jenny thinks she deserves all the credit for being Jenny; and I’m just glad I might not have to take all the happiness and fun out of Jenny’s life like I said I would if she didn’t get her mess in order.
  • Ruby (RJET +4.3%) and Mario TE (MGEE +2.7%).  Is the stock market telling us that Boo-boo’s even more excited about getting into the sand-sculpture business than Grandpa?  Maybe.  Or maybe she’s found a way to get out of the sand-sculpture business before she even gets in.  I’m betting on option #2.
  • Katie (CATY) +3.7%.  Katie came out of her corporate strategy retreat as the spokeswoman for something called Team Sausage.  All I know about Team Sausage is that the team members wore actual sausages on their heads for a presentation.  Perhaps the market knows something about the economic benefits of sausage hats that I don’t; frankly, I’m happy for that to remain a mystery.
  • LULU +3.6%.  Watch out, birds.  Spring is right around the corner.
  • Marisa (MOLXA) +3.5%.  The ghost birds should be on guard too.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +3.0%.  Charlotte’s lease is up at the end of the month; if she can just close on the NYSE Euronext deal before March 31, she and Zero can move in here.

nyse1

Just replace that giant flag with an enormous picture of Charlotte’s face and it’s perfect.

Decliners

  • Zondro (ZQK) -1.1%.  While he was the only FSX member to post a weekly decline greater than one percent, Zondro actually rallied throughout the day after having been down as much as 10% in the first hour of trading.  It’s as though investors started off listening to Zondro about how terrible it will be to spend the day outside during the coming months, and then they were like, ‘wait, he’s a dog.’  Sometimes the market can be dead wrong in the short term, but it always eventually gets it right.  Zondro, on the other hand, almost never gets anything right.

 

Name Ticker 3/8/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.15 +0.50
Charlotte ICE $158.60 +4.60
Dustin DST $69.56 +1.69
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $23.54 +0.80
Icarus FAST $51.54 -0.20
Jenny JNY $12.00 +0.72
Jodi Ann JOY $63.13 +1.07
Justin SCI $15.89 +0.37
Katie CATY $20.05 +0.72
Lee TGI $74.33 +1.99
Lisa LNCE $25.17 +0.13
Lucas LEI $1.36 +0.15
Lulu LULU $69.92 +2.42
Marcus MCS $12.20 -0.08
Mario T.E. MGEE $55.09 +1.30
Mario T.Y. MAR $40.29 +0.72
Namilita NL $12.83 +0.02
Nicole E. NICE $36.79 +1.18
Nicole M. COLM $55.92 -0.02
Reagan REGN $172.97 +1.24
Ruby RJET $10.39 +0.43
Wilson WILC $6.00 -0.04
Winston ED $58.95 -0.07
Zero ZAGG $7.52 +0.12
Zondro ZQK $6.21 -0.07

 

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