Mr. Sensitive

February 22, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:59

The stock market sold off—hard—midweek when the FOMC minutes revealed a willingness to ‘vary the pace of asset purchases,’ Fed-speak for slowing down the pace of quantitative easing.  That the Fed merely suggested that it might decide to ease less aggressively going forward—which, by the way, it won’t—and the result was a panicked dash for the exit, well…it’s not a good sign, at least not for the bulls.  Stock pickers and market strategists alike have been relying more and more on fundamentals in framing the bull case for a technically-overbought market closing in on all-time highs, but this week’s Fed-induced swoon suggests that not everyone’s drinking the Kool-aid.  The not-so-secret secret is that the Kool-aid is spiked, and the Fed’s been spiking it, in one form or another, since 2001 (and without interruption since 2008).  Eventually it will end; maybe not before we get QE5, or QE6, or QE10, but eventually.  The market rebounded nicely on Friday, but what we saw midweek is the tiniest of sneak-peaks at what will happen, at least in the short-term, when the end arrives.

The Family Stock Index made yet another all-time high—14,879—on Wednesday morning, and then it rolled over.  After a drop of 350 points in less than a day’s worth of trading, the FSX firmed up around 14,500 and rebounded slightly, finishing the week down 1.2% to 14,608.  Was this the much-needed correction?  Breadth was appropriately dismal—21 decliners to 4 advancers—and for a minute there, it felt like a real pullback.  But after seven weeks and 1400 points to the upside, a minute doesn’t mean much.  There’s a strong bid just below current levels and it’s going to take more than a little skittishness to stop bulls from pouncing on every pullback.  Might a sequestration do it?  We’re about to find out.

Advancers

  • Nicole M. (COLM) +6.5%.  Mario provided some truly compelling analysis on this stock last week, and in light of the follow-on rally it bears revisiting.  To quote him, ‘Nicole is very excited about the new addition in our house. I’m of course referring to the new dog food that we got Winston.’  Having switched dog food several times myself, I know that the early stages can be nerve-racking.  The market certainly has confidence in the new dog food, though; an 11% rally in a sideways market and a new 52-week high speak for themselves.
  • Ed Winston (ED) +3.4%.  Dogs, fortunately, do not speak for themselves.  Mario told us last week the ‘[Winston’s] old food resulted in diarrhea for like four straight days,’ and I imagine Ol’ Ed would have turned the air blue while he was turning the ground brown.  Hopefully he’ll get on board with the new dog food, though, because it can be a tough transition; some dogs don’t care what you feed them (Zondro), and others like their food the way it was (Wilson).
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) +2.1%.  Grandpa might spend the rest of his life building glass sandcastles.  It sounds like a beautiful metaphor, doesn’t it?
  • Ruby (RJET) +0.8%.  If it’s not a metaphor, we could be looking at the catalyst for Ruby’s (+72% in 2013) long-overdue correction.
  • Wilson (WILC) +1.2%.  If my dogs had stomach problems, I’d probably never know.  How awesome is that for me?

Decliners

  • Zero (ZAGG) -1.6%.  Zero quit his job after failing to find respect and appreciation working for a multinational corporation.  He also failed to find the Spear of Destiny or the Lost Continent of Atlantis—but keep looking, bro.
  • Jenny (JNY) -3.8%.  Jenny’s grades are sliding again, and she’s got Bs in three of her core academic subjects (as of Katie’s most recent check).  I’ve made my position on this very clear: if a B is the result of Jenny’s best effort, it’s just a B; if not, it’s an F.  Jenny mixes in too many Ds and Fs among the As she’s otherwise able to get, and when we review her assignments with her, her mistakes are inevitably the result of sloppiness and carelessness.  The majority of those mistakes would have been avoided or corrected if Jenny took the time to think through and review her work.  I don’t like the idea of punishing her for screwing up individual assignments; I don’t want to live that way any more than she does.  But it doesn’t take many 40% or 50% scores to ruin an average, and if those scores are coming as a result of poor effort, drastic measures may be necessary.  I can’t do anything about aptitude, but effort is another matter entirely.  And while I’m sure there’s a point beyond which I won’t go, I can’t off the top of my head think of what point that might be.
  • Reagan (REGN) -2.8%.  At the opposite, slightly-deranged end of the educational spectrum, we have Reagan.  Reagan had to miss two days of school this week because she had the flu, and while I’m sure she will eventually forgive her mother for failing to stop by school and get the days’ assignments from her teachers, I’m not sure when it will be.  If anyone doubts that nature has a strong case in the nature-vs-nuture debate, I invite you to spend a day with my daughters.
  • Mario the Younger (MAR) -4.2%.  Switching dog food can be stressful.  I remember exactly how I felt the first time I switched dog food…or, on second thought, maybe I don’t.  I’ve had these dogs for a long, long time.
  • Zondro (ZQK) -6.4%.  Spring is coming, and Zondro’s long winter of contentment will ending just as soon as it arrives.  He may have forgotten that he’s an outside dog, but I sure haven’t.
  • Lucas (LEI) -13%.  The deeper voice may be tough to get used to, Mario, but there’s a trick to it.  When a young man’s voice first changes, it’s liable to drop a couple octaves.  Once that young man gets over the fact that his voice changed, however, at least one of those abandoned octaves will magically come back.  A teenage boy’s baritone isn’t all affectation, obviously, but you can bet he’s aware of it.  The novelty will wear off.  I sound like a robot bear all the time, but I only try to sound like a giant robot bear when a kid- or dog-misstep makes it necessary.

 

Name Ticker 2/22/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.35 -0.19
Charlotte ICE $155.98 -0.48
Dustin DST $67.59 -0.29
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $22.92 -0.21
Icarus FAST $51.47 -1.29
Jenny JNY $11.27 -0.45
Jodi Ann JOY $63.02 +0.16
Justin SCI $15.67 -0.04
Katie CATY $19.79 -0.35
Lee TGI $73.47 -0.35
Lisa LNCE $25.56 +0.14
Lucas LEI $1.37 -0.21
Lulu LULU $67.05 -0.80
Marcus MCS $12.65 -0.11
Mario T.E. MGEE $54.40 +1.11
Mario T.Y. MAR $39.49 -1.74
Namilita NL $13.39 +0.09
Nicole E. NICE $35.98 -0.22
Nicole M. COLM $56.20 +3.44
Reagan REGN $160.38 -4.55
Ruby RJET $9.66 +0.08
Wilson WILC $5.56 +0.06
Winston ED $58.48 +1.90
Zero ZAGG $7.44 -0.12
Zondro ZQK $5.96 -0.41

 

Advertisements

2 Comments »

  1. Lucas (who only ever reads his part of the FSX) commented: I wish I had a giant robot bear.

    Comment by Lisa Lamb Machi — February 26, 2013 @ 17:00 | Reply

    • He’s handy; it’s not too late.

      Comment by lbej — February 27, 2013 @ 06:09 | Reply


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: