Mr. Sensitive

February 8, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:02

The stock market just does not want to go down, period; we notched new multi-year highs for the major indices today.  The more chatter the market hears about how it’s due for a correction, the less likely that correction becomes.  Is it a bubble?  Not really, not in my opinion.  Valuations are definitely stretched.  At 18x earnings, you could argue that risk is being mispriced, if not ignored.  But is it the Nasdaq in March 2000?  No.  Is it the U.S. housing market in 2006?  No.  Is it the bond market right now?  No.  In fact, I think fear of a bond market implosion is underpinning stock inflows.  The reality is that multinational corporations are healthier than governments and far more rational, and however overvalued the stocks of those companies are, it’s nothing compared to how overvalued their bonds are.  The attempts at correction mounted this week and last have failed decisively, because the market doesn’t want to go down.  Would I buy at these levels?  Not on your life.  But I wouldn’t short this market, either.  To get a major move in either direction, we’re going to need to see a directional shift in fundamentals.  We didn’t get that from earnings—they’ve been steady-as-she-goes—so we’ll see what the politicians have in store for us over the next two months.

The Family Stock Index started its pullback last week (-0.7%) while the broader averages continued to rally, so we weren’t in a position to challenge multi-year/all-time highs on Friday.  The FSX added 0.6% on the week to close at 14,600, within sight of last week’s record level of 14,699.  Breadth is starting to deteriorate, though, and the number of stocks in the red for the year has risen from just one two weeks ago to six now.  It’s not necessarily a bad thing to see rotation out of last year’s leaders (REGN, LULU), but when I’m one of the main drivers of FSX gains (TGI +11% YTD), that hasn’t been a good sign, historically.  Maybe things will be different this year; I’ll believe it if I’m still sporting a 7-handle come July.

Advancers

  • Zondro (ZQK +6.0%) and Wilson (WILC +4.6%).  Both of my dogs set fresh highs this week, and I can’t help but wonder if it was a mistake to underweight pets in the FSX.  Wilson overweights himself, though, so I was just trying to balance things out.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +5.8%.  Charlotte wowed the analysts with a blowout quarter and is on track to sew up the NYSE acquisition in the coming months; as a result, investors pushed her stock to levels not seen since 2008.  What does Charlotte plan to do with the New York Stock Exchange?  Whatever her intentions are, I feel confident in saying that there will be more than one picture of my sister hanging on the trading floor once the deal closes.  The trading floor of the NYSE is pretty big; I’m setting the over/under at eight tasteful Charlottes.
  • Zero (ZAGG) +5.1%.  I know Zero was pretty bummed out when Charlotte bid for the NYSE two years ago, but that deal was 20% pricier and Charlotte was bringing in Nasdaq to prop up the bid.  Why would Zero want to share Charlotte with Nasdaq anyway?  Those cats are needy enough as it is.
  • Ruby (RJET) +4.5%.  Ruby sold off last week as the market came to terms with the end of her extended travel season.  This week investors returned to the stock after remembering that the home Ruby returns to is in Hilton Head now, not Wytheville.
  • Lee (TGI) +3.1%.  Maybe Charlotte will let me run day-to-day operations at stock exchange once she’s in charge.  I don’t like portraits of myself, so no worries there.  All I want—beyond the eight-figure salary, of course—is to wear a cape to work.  And maybe a winged helmet.
  • Nami & Lita (NL) +3.0%.  What will the cats do when Charlotte lets them loose on Wall Street?  Do they ever poop in people’s shoes?  If not, it’s time to start.
  • Mario TY (MAR) +1.7%.  Mario will be writing an upcoming FSX Update; no doubt he’s already looking forward to all the comments that these posts get.  Ha ha no.  If you want comments, I have one word for you: insults.

Decliners

  • Brinkley (BCO) -2.6%.  Don’t bother insulting Brinky; he doesn’t care.  I threw a ball at him yesterday and he didn’t even turn around.
  • Jenny (JNY) -2.9%.  It’s no good insulting Jenny, either.  She doesn’t look up from her Nook or take her headphones out of her ears except for dinner.
  • Marcus (MCS) -3.3%.  The market has spoken: it’s time to make this cape thing happen in the world of education.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -4.2%.  Capes up, neckties down.  No more neck-phallus male-domination in the workplace.  Nothing says equality and empowerment like a cape.
  • Reagan (REGN) -4.2%.  Reagan came home from school early on Wednesday because she had a stomach ache and her teacher was concerned enough to call.  That’s because Reagan isn’t a complainer, at least not when she’s at school.  Reagan doesn’t complain about ailments when she’s at school, because Reagan doesn’t want to miss school, because Reagan is school.  So when Katie and sick Reagan walked in the door, the first thing Reagan did was go up to her bed to lie down.  Ha ha no.  The first thing Reagan did was sit down at the kitchen table to start on her homework.   That kind of crazy catches up with you eventually, and the market is beginning to price a crazy-Reagan discount into REGN stock.
Name Ticker 2/8/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.04 -0.71
Charlotte ICE $149.00 +8.12
Dustin DST $67.68 +0.97
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $22.78 +0.01
Icarus FAST $50.69 +0.03
Jenny JNY $11.80 -0.35
Jodi Ann JOY $61.45 -2.70
Justin SCI $15.02 +0.05
Katie CATY $19.85 +0.16
Lee TGI $72.40 +2.18
Lisa LNCE $25.85 +0.11
Lucas LEI $1.59 -0.03
Lulu LULU $68.04 +0.18
Marcus MCS $13.05 -0.45
Mario T.E. MGEE $52.75 -0.15
Mario T.Y. MAR $40.97 +0.68
Namilita NL $13.24 +0.39
Nicole E. NICE $37.00 -0.32
Nicole M. COLM $50.66 +0.06
Reagan REGN $165.85 -7.03
Ruby RJET $8.89 +0.38
Wilson WILC $5.50 +0.24
Winston ED $57.15 +0.10
Zero ZAGG $7.03 +0.34
Zondro ZQK $6.76 +0.38
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