Mr. Sensitive

January 25, 2013

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:43

U.S. stocks continue to set new multi-year highs and the rest of the world is joining the party; from the DAX in Germany to the Nikkei in Japan, global equity indices are reaching 3-, 4- and 5-year highs.  The Dow Transports—the Trannies, in Street parlance—are setting fresh all-time highs on a daily basis, and the Dow Industrial and S&P 500 indices are within a few percentage points of their 2007 record levels.  The Nasdaq Composite is closing in on the September 2012 high of 3196, which was the best level for that index since 2000.  The Nasdaq is nowhere near its all-time high above 5100, which was set in March of 2000 at the peak of the tech stock bubble—if we ever see those levels again, it won’t be for a long, long time.  It also doesn’t help the Nasdaq that its largest component—by far—is down 11% this week and nearly 40% in four months.  I’ve said enough about Apple, though; for a long time it was the lone bright spot in a narrow market, and now the opposite is the case.  What’s working in this market?  Well…everything, basically.  Financials, oil & gas, big pharma, biotech, homebuilders, industrials, media, railroads—you name it.  Tech has been more a matter of winners (Amazon, eBay, IBM, Google) vs. losers (Apple, Intel, Microsoft) and the same is true in the retail sector.  So is now the time to buy?  I sure don’t think so.  The S&P 500 isn’t cheap at 17.5x trailing earnings and the inevitable bursting of the bond bubble will create a whole new set of winners and losers.  That doesn’t mean it’s time to sell, necessarily; individual stocks and even some sectors have plenty of room to run.  The market overall is looking pretty overheated, though, and the longer this bull run lasts, the worse the correction will necessarily be.

Do traders call the transport stocks ‘trannies’ just so they can say things like ‘I love the trannies right now,’ and ‘I’m putting it all into trannies’?  Of course.

The Family Stock Index continues to shame the broader averages, posting a 1.1% gain on the week and extending the January run to nearly 1200 points, or +8.7%.  Friday’s closing level of 14,619 is yet another all-time high, and breadth (18-7) was stronger this week than last (15-10).  Seven FSX members made new 52-week highs (Brinkley, Dustin, Justin, Lee, Nicole M., Wilson, Zondro) and there were no new lows.  In fact, only one component (Republican die-hard Ed Winston) is nearer than 10% to his 52-week low.  Can we keep running?  The P/E multiple on the FSX is an above-market 20x, but that is admittedly skewed by losses posted by RJET, LEI and JNY, along with the sky-high multiples sported by REGN and LULU.  The median P/E is 17.2, suggesting that the FSX isn’t necessarily overvalued relative to the broader market.  All that said, a sharp pullback of 2-4% sure would sure hit the spot about now.

Advancers

  • Ruby (RJET +9.7%) and Zondro (ZQK +4.6%).  Ruby (+61% in January) and Zondro (+51%) are in a dogfight (get it?) for the top spot in the FSX this month, and neither one of them is backing down.  The conventional wisdom is that it’s best to let a sleeping dog lie, but CW also advises against poking a bear.  In this scenario, Ruby is the bear, and while I don’t know what, specifically, Zondro did to anger the bear, it certainly doesn’t surprise me that he did something.
  • LULU +4.5%.  It’s real cold outside and Lulu isn’t handling it well.  She spends a lot of time inside now with me and Brinky, and there’s no love lost between us.  (Brinky does love Lulu, but he believes that love means never having to say you’re sorry for squeezing your friends and sitting on them.)  Three days ago I spent fifteen minutes getting Brinky to sleep and was settling in to work when I heard a thumping sound upstairs.  At first I suspected my son—eloquent as ever, he pounds on the door and/or wall when he’s done with his nap—but he hadn’t been down long enough to even call it a cat nap.  But it was not a cat nap, I realized—it was an anti-nap cat.   The cat was in Brinky’s room, and now it was trying to get out!   So I rushed upstairs to kill it, only to find it in my bedroom, smacking a dead bird into the wall like some ghoulish form of racquetball practice.  I tried to catch the cat but it slipped under the bathtub, so I picked up its feathered toy and tossed it outside into the bushes.  Twenty minutes later, Lulu brought the bird back up onto the porch and started knocking it against the front door.  I kicked cat and bird—separately—off the porch a final time.  Thus one of the most contentious issues of the day—where dead birds can and cannot be played with—was resolved, largely through chasing and kicking.  I can’t guarantee that this approach would help Congress solve its fiscal policy impasse, but it should absolutely be tried.  Just think of the ratings boost for C-SPAN.
  • Lee (TGI) +4.2%.  Stay on target…almost there.
  • Reagan (REGN) +3.9%.  Reagan got a fancy keyboard for her birthday and she’s taking it in exactly the direction you’d expect.

rossmusic

Decliners

  • Brinkley (BCO) -1.2%.  He’s got a cold, courtesy of Reagan.   Reagan handles her illnesses like a champ; Brinky, not so much.
  • Katie (CATY) -1.7%.  Jenny beat her mother two times in a row playing Just Dance 4, and the rift may never heal.
  • Nicole E. (NICE) -2.8%.  It’s real cold up there.  If it comes down to a Han/Luke/Tauntaun scenario with Nicole, Justin and Icarus in the mix, who ends up with the Tauntaun end of the stick?

tauntaun

The market’s placed its bet.

  • Ghost Marisa (MOLXA) -2.8%.  Ghost birds just don’t make the same satisfying thump when you knock them into things.
  • Zero (ZAGG) -5.0%.  Charlotte had her wisdom teeth removed and she seems to think it all went well.  I guess she has no idea what she said when she was hopped up on pain pills.  In fact, no one knows but Zero…and the market.
Name Ticker 1/25/2013 Change
Brinkley BCO $29.90 -0.35
Charlotte ICE $134.82 +1.49
Dustin DST $64.53 +1.01
Ghost Marisa MOLXA $22.78 -0.66
Icarus FAST $48.96 +0.36
Jenny JNY $11.99 +0.30
Jodi Ann JOY $63.26 -5.75
Justin SCI $14.86 +0.03
Katie CATY $19.26 -0.33
Lee TGI $72.85 +2.92
Lisa LNCE $25.96 +0.31
Lucas LEI $1.65 +0.09
Lulu LULU $69.83 +3.03
Marcus MCS $13.15 +0.05
Mario T.E. MGEE $52.18 +0.45
Mario T.Y. MAR $39.56 +0.29
Namilita NL $12.88 +0.15
Nicole E. NICE $37.05 -1.06
Nicole M. COLM $51.21 +1.17
Reagan REGN $174.48 +6.51
Ruby RJET $9.18 +0.81
Wilson WILC $5.40 -0.07
Winston ED $56.51 +0.73
Zero ZAGG $7.24 -0.38
Zondro ZQK $6.41 +0.28
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1 Comment »

  1. I’m definitely the one wearing the most amount of clothing and looking the most uncomfortable.

    Comment by nicole — January 29, 2013 @ 15:36 | Reply


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