Mr. Sensitive

November 30, 2012

FSX Friday Tag-Team Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:20

Ooo, fiscal cliff!  No one cares.  CNBC is hoping they can get a ratings bump by hyping the cliff and the supposedly dire consequences of falling off it; they’re even running a countdown to the fiscal cliff, down to the second, even though there’s more than 30 days to go.  It sounds ridiculous and it looks as ridiculous as it sounds.  Alas for CNBC, the market’s not cooperating.  It ticks up or down slightly based on perceived political progress or lack thereof, but so far it’s just noise on top of an eerily quiet market.  The Dow and the S&P 500 finished just slightly higher for the week; the Nasdaq outperformed with a solid gain, thanks to big positive moves in bellwethers Apple, Google, Amazon, and—surprise, surprise—Facebook.

Whither Facebook, widely hailed as the most disastrous IPO in history?  At $27, FB is still trading nearly 30% below its IPO price of $38, but it’s also now comfortably above the September low of $17.55.  The stock is up 40% just since November 9th; maybe Zucky’s a Democrat.  If we’re still saying this was the worst IPO ever, it has to be for reasons other than market performance.  At its lowest levels of the year, FB traded 54% below its IPO price.  How about other social media IPOs?

LinkedIn is the great success story of the group, at least from a market performance standpoint.  LNKD priced at $45, doubled on the first day of trading, and at $106 today, is up more than 130% from its IPO price.  Don’t take this as an endorsement, though; LNKD trades at 687 times earnings, compared to 15-16x for the average stock.  In comparison, you can buy Google for 21 times earnings, Apple for 14x, Cisco for 12x, and Intel for 8x.  Can LinkedIn grow faster than Cisco and Intel?  Probably.  Can it grow faster than Apple and Google?  I certainly don’t think so.

As for the other big social media IPOs?  Yikes.

Pandora’s been a bigger bust than Facebook, although not dramatically so.  P priced at $16 and while its low of $7.30 equates to the same 54% drop FB experienced, it hasn’t come back nearly as far.  At $8.60, P is just 18% off its lows and 46% below the initial offering price.

Then there’s ZyngaZNGA priced at $10 and is trading at $2.45, only slightly off its low of $2.09 and more than 75% below the IPO price.

But at least Zynga’s not Groupon.  Remember when Google offered to pay $6 billion for Groupon two years ago?  Probably you don’t, but it happened.  Groupon’s board said no thanks, opting instead to go public.  At the IPO price of $20, the company was valued at more than $12 billion, and Google’s offer looked silly.  As late as February of this year, GRPN was trading above $25, giving at a market cap of more than $16 billion and making the Google bid appear downright insulting.  Now GRPN is a $4 stock…and that’s only because vulture funds began circling it when it fell to $2.60 earlier this month.  This two-week run-up in the stock has cut IPO investor losses to just(!) 80%.  The market now values the company that scoffed at a $6 billion offer at just $2.7 billion.  And I don’t think it’s worth even that.

So Facebook isn’t the worst.  It’s just plain bad.

Even if the market failed to inspire, the Family Stock Index put on a show this week, adding 2.2% to close at 13,210.  Advancers led decliners 18-7, but even that’s deceptive; two of the declining stocks were lower a measly penny, and the biggest percentage drop among the seven was just 1.3%.  At this level, the FSX is back to even for Q4 and up 19% for 2012, substantially beating the major averages over both periods.  And as a special treat to celebrate, I’m turning the A/D section over to Katie.  You’re all welcome.

Advancers

  • Wilson (WILC) +18%.  This picture of Randy we saw this week reminded us that Wilson’s really not very fat.

fatrandy

(Mr. Sensitive says: Image courtesy of Charlotte; my clothes courtesy of Mom’s future wardrobe.)

  • Ruby (RJET) +9%.  Finished editing her catalog that she hates at work this week.
  • Marcus (MCS) +6.3%.  Feeling better, I think, according to Jodi Ann. Maybe he knows I’m going to email him. Oh, and not as much Christmas drama this year either (according to me).
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) +3.5%.  It’s still pretty warm in Hilton Head while it’s freezing everywhere else. Jenny would probably be up a lot if she didn’t have to deal with cold mornings.
  • Winston (ED) +3.1%.  Excited about his upcoming visit to the La Quinta!
  • Nicole E. (NICE) +3.0%.  Excited about her upcoming visit to our home! Or about a few days without Justin when he’s down here next week.
  • Lee (MSTR) +2.5%.  Because you loooooove me. And because you made it through the What a Mess chapter finally.  And because Jenny and I have been more pleasant to be around the last couple mornings.  (Mr. Sensitive says: What A Mess was my judgmental parenthetical title for Chapter 18 in the first draft.  That chapter was crap and total garbage; I’m not sure what I was trying to do, but I’m sure I shouldn’t have done what I did.  I had to rewrite the whole thing; it’s still crap, but it’s not total garbage.)
  • Brinkley (BCO) +2.3%.  He’s getting so much bonus time lying with his parents while we try to figure out how to make him sleep.
  • Reagan (REGN) +0.3%.  Spelling bee’s coming up and she’s got the words – this is her time. Let’s hope it’s goes better than the science fair project so far.  (Mr. Sensitive says: REGN sold off in the afternoon after Katie wrote her blurb, but she still deserves a mention for making yet another new high at $188.95 yesterday).

Decliners

  • Mario TY (WMAR) -0.7%.  Because he apparently can’t beat Tara this year.
  • Justin (SCI) -0.8%.  Because he’s not excited about seeing us twice in one month? How could that be?
  • Lucas (LEI) -1.3%.  Middle school. Apparently it’s contagious (see Jenny’s recent grades and behavior).

 

Name Ticker 11/30/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $27.46 +0.63
Charlotte ICE $132.15 +0.96
Dustin DST $57.64 +0.68
Ghost Marisa MOLX $26.38 -0.24
Icarus FAST $41.81 +0.67
Jenny JNY $11.76 -0.01
Jodi Ann JOY $56.99 -0.14
Justin SCI $13.93 -0.11
Katie CATY $17.90 -0.01
Lee MSTR $88.49 +2.19
Lisa LNCE $24.08 +0.52
Lucas LEI $1.51 -0.02
Lulu LULU $71.72 +1.05
Marcus MCS $11.84 +0.70
Mario T.E. MGEE $50.55 +1.72
Mario T.Y. WMAR $10.34 -0.07
Namilita NL $10.70 +0.20
Nicole E. NICE $33.78 +0.98
Nicole M. COLM $57.90 +1.06
Reagan REGN $176.55 +0.47
Ruby RJET $5.81 +0.48
Wilson WILC $4.95 +0.77
Winston ED $55.79 +1.69
Zero ZIP $8.13 +0.01
Zondro ZQK $4.00 +0.16

 

 

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