Mr. Sensitive

September 30, 2012

FSX Q3 Review and Q4 Changes

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 12:24

Overall, not too shabby.  Here is a comparison of the Family Stock Index to the other major U.S. equity averages for the third quarter of 2012.

NASDAQ 2,935 3,116 +6.2%
SPX 1,362 1,441 +5.8%
FSX 12,497 13,197 +5.6%
INDU 12,880 13,437 +4.3%

The columns are 6/30 value, 9/30 value, and percentage change.  WordPress mangles these things, so who knows what it will look like when I hit publish; the takeaway is that we performed well, gaining 5.6% in the quarter, but trailed both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, not adjusting for dividends.  Only 15 of our 25 stocks pay dividends and we yield a paltry 1%, so I doubt that would help us much.  For the year, however, the FSX is up 19.1%, trailing the 19.6% gain of the Nasdaq by only 50 bps and leading the S&P (+14.6% YTD) comfortably.

I really went for it with the individual quarterly results this time.  The final three columns are dollar change (Chg), simple percentage change (Pct), and total return including dividends (Tot).

Name Ticker 6/29/2012 9/28/2012 Chg Pct Tot
1 Lucas LEI $1.48 $2.34 +0.86 +58.1% +58.1%
2 Zondro ZQK $2.33 $3.32 +0.99 +42.5% +42.5%
3 Jenny JNY $9.56 $12.87 +3.31 +34.6% +35.1%
4 Reagan REGN $114.22 $152.66 +38.44 +33.7% +33.7%
5 Lulu LULU $59.63 $73.94 +14.31 +24.0% +24.0%
6 Mario T.E. MGEE $47.30 $52.99 +5.69 +12.0% +12.9%
7 Brinkley BCO $23.18 $25.69 +2.51 +10.8% +11.3%
8 Marisa MOLX $23.94 $26.28 +2.34 +9.8% +10.7%
9 Justin SCI $12.37 $13.46 +1.09 +8.8% +9.3%
10 Icarus ICS $15.26 $16.23 +0.97 +6.4% +7.4%
11 Katie CATY $16.51 $17.26 +0.75 +4.5% +4.6%
12 Dustin DST $54.31 $56.56 +2.25 +4.1% +4.5%
13 Lee MSTR $129.86 $134.07 +4.21 +3.2% +3.2%
14 Nicole M. COLM $53.62 $53.89 +0.27 +0.5% +0.9%
15 Lisa LNCE $25.23 $24.99 -0.24 -1.0% -0.3%
16 Jodi Ann JOY $56.73 $56.06 -0.67 -1.2% -0.9%
17 Charlotte ICE $135.98 $133.41 -2.57 -1.9% -1.9%
18 Winston ED $62.19 $59.89 -2.30 -3.7% -2.7%
19 Wilson WILC $4.41 $4.14 -0.27 -6.1% -6.1%
20 Namilita NL $12.47 $11.49 -0.98 -7.9% -6.9%
21 Nicole E. NICE $36.60 $33.22 -3.38 -9.2% -9.2%
22 Mario T.Y. WMAR $11.75 $10.63 -1.12 -9.5% -9.5%
23 Ruby RJET $5.55 $4.63 -0.92 -16.6% -16.6%
24 Marcus MCS $13.76 $11.10 -2.66 -19.3% -18.7%
25 Zero ZIP $11.73 $7.77 -3.96 -33.8% -33.8%

The youngest members of the FSX did the heavy lifting this quarter, with Lucas, Jenny, Reagan and Brinkley all placing in the top seven.  Zondro finished in second, but he’s a dog and pets don’t contribute as much to the average in my weighting scheme.  Lucas and Zondro both had some catching up to do; even with this quarter’s explosive gains, Lucas moved only as far as #15 in the year-to-date performance rankings (+1.3%), and Zondro is still down at #20 (-8%).  Jenny was in the red prior to this quarter, but not by nearly as much, and her +22% return for the year moved her all the way from #18 as of 6/30 to #7 now.  Then there’s Reagan.  She had actually fallen behind (!) Justin after the second quarter, but with WOLF out of the picture and another stellar quarter under her belt, Reagan’s 175% gain for the year makes her second-straight FSX championship all but certain.  Justin’s weighted return is down to +90%, but SCI itself has turned in a +26% 2012 and he would be in good shape even without the WOLF buyout during Q2.  Mario the Elder is surprising me as much as any FSX member; I was expecting a flattish year out of the utilities (Ed Winston has given me just that), but MGEE has appreciated steadily after a Q1 dip and stands now as one of the best performers of the year.

Nicole E. kicks off the tour of the bottom five for the quarter; nothing to worry about there, in my opinion, as she’s still positive for the year and poised in the middle of the pack (#14) with an unchallenging P/E to prevent any Q4 swoon.  I have my doubts about Mario the Younger, though, and I’m considering yet another swap for 2013.  Ruby had a tough quarter, but is holding on to a 25% gain for the year, making it hard to complain about RJET’s FSX contribution.  Marcus took a back-to-school beating, as expected, but recent fundamental improvements as well as traditional seasonal strength in MCS make me optimistic for the balance of the year.  Then there’s Zero.  He’s just doing what he does, wrecking 401(k)s and keeping the rest of the FSX humble.

The only change for Q4 is for Icarus.  No doubt you were wondering why his stock has been unch for the last month (or you didn’t notice at all).  Well, turns out closed-end fund managers can just up and merge funds anytime they want, and poor Icky got merged back at the end of August.  I just left him as-is because (1) I didn’t want to rebalance with a month left on account of a dog and (2) I wanted to see if Icky noticed.  He didn’t.  I am changing him for Q4, though, and I decided to go obvious.  Icarus is fast, so he’s going to be FAST in the FSX.  FAST is the ticker symbol for Fastenal, the industrial retail and distribution firm; with 296 million shares out and a $43 stock price, its $12 billion market cap is a bit higher than I’d like, but I’m just plain out of ideas for that dog.  Besides, even at $12 billion, Icky’s still looking up at Reagan, just like the rest of us.

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