Mr. Sensitive

September 28, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:56

The last week of the third quarter was a slow one in the markets.  The major averages took losses in the neighborhood of 1-2%, and the financial press was quick to attribute the sell-off to resurgent insurgents in Greece and Spain.  Um, no.  In the first place, this is the final week of the quarter, and the repositioning—legitimate and otherwise—taking place in the portfolios of big fund managers makes it impossible to draw any conclusions about the mood of the market going forward.  Second of all, the S&P 500 was up 7.2% for the quarter—a seasonally-challenging quarter—through last week, and was overdue for a pullback.  And thirdly…really?  Greece?  Really?  The market does not care about Greece.  This is a bad look for the Greeks:

No doubt about it.  But when I heard that they were rioting and burning things again, my first thought was that it had been a few months, so they were probably getting the itch.  The only thing that I find surprising about it is that they still have anything left to burn.  If your currency is devalued and your international credit is frozen—the situation Greece is headed for if they don’t accept budget cuts and stay in the Eurozone—you won’t be able to buy anything you need from abroad.  In that case, is it a good idea to burn the stuff you have on hand?  Can you blame the Germans for losing patience with this insanity?  This is what every German looks like this week:

That’s German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.  Greece doesn’t care for him, and the feeling is mutual.  He is the face of dour German rectitude.

It’s a face the Greeks should learn to love.  Their behavior is contemptible, and the Germans have been extremely patient.  Historically, Germans don’t deal well with frustration.  They start dressing funny, then all hell breaks loose.

So far, though, the Germans are just annoyed, and everyone outside of Europe is indifferent.  The Greeks need to come to terms with that and stop burning stuff like it’s going to have any effect outside their own insane country.  They spent money they didn’t have; they gave up control of monetary policy when they weren’t ready; now the bill’s come due and they can’t print drachmas to pay it.  I love fire as much as the next guy, but I don’t recommend it as a cornerstone of fiscal policy.

The Family Stock Index put in a strong relative performance, rising 0.3% in a down market to end the third quarter at 13,197.  Breadth was slightly negative, 10 advancers to 14 decliners; the increase in the average was due to continued outperformance from Lucas and Reagan and a reversal in several recent laggards.  More on the third quarter overall, along with FSX changes for Q4, should be forthcoming this weekend, provided my enlarged-heart-related problems don’t get in the way.

Advancers

  • Lucas (LEI) +12.5%.  The resurrection of Lucas continued through to the last day of the quarter, and over the final three weeks of September he’s posted gains of 12%, 10.6%, and 12.5%, respectively.  For the quarter as a whole Lucas gained 58%, but for 2012 he’s barely above breakeven (+1.3%).  Concentrated gains like these are great for the FSX in light of the rebalancing technique I use, but that’s not to say that I’m not hoping for a Q4 follow-through from LEI.  Activist investors have recently formed Lucas Energy Shareholders for Change (LESC)—I’m not making this up—with the aim of unlocking value.  That has to be good, right?  If I’d had Wall Street pushing me to get rid of my bolo tie in middle school, I’d be at least five inches taller today.
  • Reagan (REGN) +5.2%.  Reagan closed out the week a few cents shy of her all-time high, and analysts have been tripping over themselves to raise price targets.  At just under $153, Reagan is up 34% this quarter and a staggering 175% in 2012.  She’s getting her ears pierced on Friday—barring an attack of panicked fleeing—and she’s been watching YouTube videos of ear piercings to study reactions and estimate the likelihood of pain and/or swelling.  If you want to know what the market favors this year, it evidently favors focused insanity.
  • Nicole M. (COLM) +4.6%.  Katie reports that the purchase of a house is under consideration for the WMARCOLM conglomerate.  Mario (-1.0%) sold off slightly on the news; the market may be wondering, in light of his troubles with simple kitchen cutlery, if handyman duties could cost him an arm or a leg in a very literal sense.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +2.7%.  Why would he want to talk?  If we could understand him, we could more easily opt to disregard him.  Yelling and growling is the way to really motivate your family.  Good for Number One for sticking it to the speech-supremacists.
  • Nicole E. (NICE) +2.7%.  Nicole is coming to visit to enjoy the Dixie Classic Fair with us next week, and she was able to reverse a strong negative trend as a result.  Something to consider, Marcus and Jodi Ann (down 12% and 25% for the year, respectively).

Decliners

  • Charlotte (ICE) -3.0%.  Toilet phone.
  • Jenny (JNY) -3.1%.  Jenny had school pictures this week and she’s pretty worked up about it.  It seems the photographer didn’t pose her the way she was supposed to, or something, and the result was a disaster I’m obviously too old and crusty to fully appreciate.
  • Marisa (MOLX) -4.5%.  Marisa has gotten big.  Not fat—strong.  When I pick her up now, she is appreciably heavier than she was in the spring, and all of it is lean muscle.  She’s like a panther; a tiny panther.  If you don’t know where all that muscle came from, just count all the bird skulls in the bushes and you’ll have your answer.  Reagan—cold-blooded mini-Katie than she is—was musing yesterday about how it’s starting to get cold and the birds will be flying south anytime.  Clearly, MOLX investors made the obvious connections several trading sessions before I did.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -5.6%.  Katie was lamenting the lack of a picks-related update from MnJA this week; looks like the market doesn’t like it either.  Until investors get confirmation that Marcus is fully prepared to resume his rap career and ride the Gangnam wave, the bears should continue to hold sway.
Name Ticker 9/28/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $25.69 +0.68
Charlotte ICE $133.41 -4.16
Dustin DST $56.56 +0.06
Icarus ICS $16.23 unch
Jenny JNY $12.87 -0.41
Jodi Ann JOY $56.06 -3.35
Justin SCI $13.46 -0.13
Katie CATY $17.26 -0.29
Lee MSTR $134.07 -0.85
Lisa LNCE $24.99 +0.31
Lucas LEI $2.34 +0.26
Lulu LULU $73.94 -1.04
Marcus MCS $11.10 -0.02
Mario T.E. MGEE $52.99 +0.07
Mario T.Y. WMAR $10.63 -0.11
Marisa MOLX $26.28 -1.23
Namilita NL $11.49 -0.12
Nicole E. NICE $33.22 +0.88
Nicole M. COLM $53.89 +2.39
Reagan REGN $152.66 +7.57
Ruby RJET $4.63 -0.34
Wilson WILC $4.14 +0.04
Winston ED $59.89 +0.79
Zero ZIP $7.77 -0.01
Zondro ZQK $3.32 -0.10
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