Mr. Sensitive

August 10, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:56

So I already had my political rant for the day, and I feel better.  Except no I don’t, I feel worse, because everything about politics makes me sick.  You know who doesn’t care about this damned election?  The market.  The market doesn’t give a flying crap one way or the other.  That’s what makes me the most frustrated by the political coverage on the financial news channels—it’s not relevant, so leave it to MSNBC and Fox News.  This election will only make Washington more partisan and more toxic than it already is, and more and more of the same expensive gridlock will be on the agenda for 2013.  As far as the financial markets are concerned, Ben Bernanke is the Emperor of America and will be no matter which powerless clown is living in the White House next year.  Of course, that powerless clown will be in a position to re-nominate Bernanke as Fed Chairman or pick a new nominee, and woe betide the clown that picks an Emperor the market doesn’t like.  The market, at this point, knows full well that more than a decade of money-printing and bubble-blowing can’t end in anything but disaster, so…why end the party before the cops come?  You’re going to end up in the Pokey one way or the other—you can turn off the music and drive yourself to jail now, or you can party for a few more hours and ride there in the backseat of a cop car.  I don’t have to tell you which choice Emperor Bernanke made, do I?

You want to know how much the market doesn’t care?  Here are the weekly changes on the S&P 500 for the past five weeks:

7/9 – 7/13: +0.2%

7/16 – 7/20: +0.4%

7/23 – 7/27: +1.7% (ooh, big one!)

7/30 – 8/3: +0.4%

8/6 – 8/10: +1.1%

You just fell asleep, didn’t you?  It’s okay; I did, too.

The Family Stock Index beat the S&P this week with a 1.3% gain, closing at 12,438.  After last week’s two-percent drop we’re still trailing the broader market badly in the third quarter, and there’ll be no chance to make up the 300-bps deficit if we can’t break out of our summer stupor.  The FSX chart is so boring it’s fascinating.

At least to me it is.  Will we break out next week?—stay tuned.  Or don’t; it’s not like I’m checking up on you.

Advancers

  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +13%.  Yay marriage!
  • Zero (ZIP) +20%.  Last week’s 40% drubbing was clearly overdone; Jenny was never going to be able to lecture Zero about the subtleties of Pretty Little Liars (books and show!) for the entire 11-hour car ride to New York.
  • Jenny (JNY) +7.4%.  But she still has the 11-hour trip home.
  • Lee (MSTR) +4.3%.  The current phase of BWII (markups/rewrites) will wrap next week.  After that I’ll gather all the notes I’ve made, lay out three or four vignette chapters to encompass the notes, then draft the vignettes.  I don’t know how long that will take; I’m giving myself a month.  That will leave six weeks to merge the first draft, the manual markups/rewrites, and the vignettes into a second draft.  If all goes as planned, the second draft will go to Katie to read and copy edit by the 1st of November.  I’d say MSTR investors are pricing in completion of the scheduled tasks (+18% YTD), and are still undecided about 2013.  Me too, MSTR investors; me too.

Decliners

  • Marcus (MCS) -2.6%.  Boo bursitis!
  • Wilson (WILC) -4.4%.  I bet Wilson has bursitis too.  Katie and I were standing on the porch last night and we got to watch him stalking a frog down by the pond.  He’s even crazier than we knew.
  • Lucas (LEI) -8.2%.  Hopefully this is just a consolidating pullback following last week’s 20% spike.  With no more weddings after this weekend, we need Lucas to put up solid numbers the rest of the way to hold our 2012 gains.  Even with the recent surge, he’s still down 21.2% for the year, 4th worst in the FSX.  If he gets back to even, we could have a huge second half.
Name Ticker 8/10/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $22.83 +0.38
Charlotte ICE $133.26 +1.01
Dustin DST $51.16 +0.57
Icarus ICS $15.72 +0.11
Jenny JNY $11.24 +0.77
Jodi Ann JOY $57.24 +6.66
Justin SCI $13.00 +0.06
Katie CATY $16.45 -0.09
Lee MSTR $127.64 +5.31
Lisa LNCE $22.87 -0.04
Lucas LEI $1.78 -0.16
Lulu LULU $58.72 +2.09
Marcus MCS $13.03 -0.35
Mario T.E. MGEE $49.37 +0.89
Mario T.Y. WMAR $10.13 -0.26
Marisa MOLX $26.26 +0.27
Namilita NL $11.89 -0.36
Nicole E. NICE $31.81 +0.06
Nicole M. COLM $52.90 +0.88
Reagan REGN $136.84 -0.12
Ruby RJET $5.12 +0.11
Wilson WILC $4.11 -0.19
Winston ED $63.87 -0.79
Zero ZIP $8.08 +1.33
Zondro ZQK $2.80 -0.01
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1 Comment »

  1. I’m looking forward to November 1 – I can’t wait to read it!

    Comment by euregirlsandboys — August 13, 2012 @ 10:59 | Reply


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