Mr. Sensitive

July 20, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:01

Market drivers continued to diverge this week, with economic and political headlines pressuring sentiment (especially today) while mostly-positive earnings reports boosted specific stocks and sectors.  By the close on Friday, the bulls had pulled off a narrow win (S&P 500 +0.4%).  Fears of a weak earnings season replete with frightening guidance have not yet been realized, but the disturbing post-2008 trend—flat revenues plus aggressive cost-cutting producing margin improvement and earnings growth—shows no sign of moderating.  Basically, big companies are making more money than ever, even with little-to-no growth in consumption/sales, because they’re squeezing small companies and employees more than ever.  This is ultimately unsustainable, and the market isn’t entirely unaware of that reality; that’s why companies with true sales growth—like Apple and a handful of others—have outperformed even as the broader market remains flat.  What the market is failing to discount—yet—are the profoundly negative social consequences of economic (and thus, political) power being concentrated entirely in the hands of huge corporations and their cross-pollinated boards.  Occupy Wall Street fizzled out because—contrary to what my mother and many of her Boomer cohorts continue to believe about their own impact on history—young people protesting has no effect on old people making decisions.  What the naïve young people protesting don’t realize is that the old people making decisions used to be naïve young people, and they haven’t forgotten how dumb they were then.  Hippies can’t change the system; violent unrest can.  Hopefully it won’t come to that, even if an expansive view of history suggests clearly that it just might, if the short-sighted richies succeed in completely cutting away the social safety net.  They need leadership from a visionary capitalist like Otto von Bismarck; modern standard-bearer Mitt hasn’t demonstrated that he has a vision for anything.

The Family Stock Index trailed the averages badly again this week (-1.0%) and looks to be in danger of repeating last year’s pattern: blowout first quarter, second quarter slump, third quarter swoon, middling fourth quarter recovery.  Summer, clearly, is bad.  The hotter it gets, the redder we get.  I’m calling this the Thermal Synchronicity Effect, and I defy anyone to disprove it.  The FSX closed this week at 12,260, more than ten percent below its March peak; if I’m right, we should break below 11,000 before the end of August.  Sigh.

Advancers

  • Zondro (ZQK) +15%.  This no-news rally smells like short-covering as much as all the furniture in the family room smells like dog.  Down nearly 40% YTD through last week, Zondro was definitely oversold, but I wouldn’t view this as the beginning of a bull stampede.  He’s still an idiot.
  • Marisa (MOLX) +4.9%.  Marisa delivered a big, dead robin for Jenny on her birthday; if nothing else, the novelty of cat largesse seems to appeal to investors.
  • Reagan (REGN) +3.4%.  Visiting Aunt Chawly.  Reagan won’t miss meat, but she will miss her Mommy.  It’s a short enough visit, though, that fun with Charlotte should prevail over homesickness.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +1.9%.  What does a gall bladder do?  Evidently, it knocks 40 bucks off a stock in less than six months.  Look for a convincing rally once it’s gone, with $50 proving to be the long-awaited JOY floor.

Decliners

  • Charlotte (ICE -4.5%) and her cats (NL -5.6%).  Reagan’s visiting now; Jenny’s turn will come next week; what about rambunctious Brinky?  I’ve promised repeatedly that he’s not going anywhere for a while yet, but for whatever reason, sellers of Charlotte and her woefully-unprepared cats don’t believe me.
  • Katie (CATY) -4.6%.  Tough week for the mothers of the FSX.  The market is clearly bearish on parenting of teenagers, but I can’t understand why—it should be a piece of cake, right?  I view the selling as a forceful thumbs-down for Jenny’s cellphone…
  • Lisa (LNCE) -5.7%.  …and Lucas’ Facebook account.
  • Ruby (RJET) -12%.  The only FSX grandmother had the worst showing of all.  It seems the market is finally facing up to a grim reality: Ruby is all out of unmarried children, meaning no more weddings, and no more Electric Sliding, for many years to come.  Lucas is 13 and Jenny is 11; it will likely be a decade or more before the next wedding.  I bet the Electric Slide won’t even exist in ten years.

Just kidding; the Electric Slide will outlive us all.

Name Ticker 7/20/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $23.08 +0.13
Charlotte ICE $131.09 -6.13
Dustin DST $54.00 -1.00
Icarus ICS $15.49 unch
Jenny JNY $10.16 +0.09
Jodi Ann JOY $51.54 +0.95
Justin SCI $12.63 -0.15
Katie CATY $16.12 -0.77
Lee MSTR $115.33 -1.23
Lisa LNCE $22.94 -1.38
Lucas LEI $1.53 +0.01
Lulu LULU $57.35 +1.20
Marcus MCS $13.33 -0.45
Mario T.E. MGEE $48.59 -0.04
Mario T.Y. WMAR $11.81 -0.27
Marisa MOLX $24.24 +1.14
Namilita NL $11.88 -0.70
Nicole E. NICE $33.96 -0.03
Nicole M. COLM $52.97 -0.43
Reagan REGN $121.65 +4.01
Ruby RJET $4.96 -0.70
Wilson WILC $4.07 -0.05
Winston ED $63.77 +0.35
Zero ZIP $11.47 +0.10
Zondro ZQK $2.51 +0.32
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