Mr. Sensitive

July 13, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:11

Today was a big ‘up’ day in the market: the Dow was up 200 points on numbers that were trumped up (JPM ‘much better’ $5.8 loss) or made up (China GDP growth).  Nevertheless, the averages were flattish on the week or, in the case of the Nasdaq, solidly lower (bad week for big tech like MSFT, INTC, CSCO, GOOG, AMZN, etc.).  Tons of earnings next week will move individual names, but I see no reason for the market to break out of its recent range.  The same is true of the Family Stock Index, alas, settling out this week at 12,381.  This six-month chart shows just how range-bound we’ve been.

The FSX ran up from around 11,000 at the beginning of the year (and from a base of 8800 in August 2011) to 13,600 in April, gave up 1500 points in a week (the week of the Justin-Nicole wedding, in fact), and in the two months since…nothing.  Two stifling, stultifying months shuffling up and down between 12,000 and 12,600.  Maybe it’s the heat.  Melting flesh can’t be good for the markets.

Advancers

  • Marcus (MCS) +3.2%.  I finally emailed Marcus back not quite three weeks after I planned to, and his stock led the FSX to a +214 Friday.  Maybe I should try emailing myself.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +2.9%.  If Charlotte can bring her Inception DVD when she visits next week, Katie and Jenny both want to watch the movie.  I’d watch it again myself; this is one of the few examples of proselytizing I wholly endorse.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +2.5%.  Brinky bulls are making their case very forcefully this week.  The gist of the bull case is, if I’m not mistaken, that Brinky is a sweet baby boy who loves his mother and only wants to snuggle with her and give her hugs.  Brinky bears argue that he’s a stupid fat baby whose refusal to talk is only slightly less infuriating than his refusal to listen.  This week the bulls won.
  • Winston (ED) +2.1%.  With the surname-consolidation process now complete, Winston no longer has to write his full legal name as Ed Winston Liberi-Machi.  Think of all the time he’ll save.
  • Mario the Elder (MGEE) +1.9%.  Grandpa’s weeks of nomadic exile have ended, and he’s home in Hilton Head.  Home alone, no less.

Decliners

  • Nicole E. (NICE) -5.3%.  Nicole also has a birthday scheduled for next week.  Unfortunately, we are already well-stocked in terms of July birthdays and that simply won’t do.  May I suggest something in an August vintage?
  • LULU -5.7%.  The Fat One has completely cracked.  This is what a momentum stock looks like when the bulls start to bail.

Where would I buy LULU, if I bought stocks?  I think somewhere in the range of $20-25; you can’t even see those levels on this chart.

  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -8.5%.  When I was briefing Katie for our pre-update review of the FSX last night, we realized we don’t have any recent information on Marcus and Jodi Ann.  Sometimes no news is good news, of course, but where Marcus is involved, that’s almost never the case.  JOY here is a victim of pessimism; an absurdly low multiple of 7.5 on trailing earnings suggests the market believes those earnings are about to crater.  If that EPS implosion doesn’t come to pass—and I say it won’t—JOY at $50 could be a terrific buying opportunity; if not, the stock is already cheap and nearing levels that acquisitive companies like Komatsu and GE won’t be able to ignore.  Plus there’s that wedding next month; wedding presents can definitely improve operating margins.
  • Zondro (ZQK) -10.2%.  Zondro and Lulu are in similar market niches, and both have been pounded since Nike disappointed the Street last month.  The difference is that Lulu could afford to take the hit; even with her recent swoon she’s up 20% for 2012.  Zondro—now down 39% YTD—not so much.  I will say this: Zondro will stop climbing onto the kitchen table to eat people food.  If that means he’s got to take another 39% beatdown, I will be that 39%.
Name Ticker 7/13/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $22.95 +0.56
Charlotte ICE $137.22 +3.92
Dustin DST $55.00 -0.13
Icarus ICS $15.49 +0.01
Jenny JNY $10.07 -0.32
Jodi Ann JOY $50.59 -4.67
Justin SCI $12.78 +0.21
Katie CATY $16.89 +0.36
Lee MSTR $116.56 -3.01
Lisa LNCE $24.32 -1.14
Lucas LEI $1.52 +0.08
Lulu LULU $56.15 -3.39
Marcus MCS $13.78 +0.43
Mario T.E. MGEE $48.63 +0.92
Mario T.Y. WMAR $12.08 +0.15
Marisa MOLX $23.10 -0.52
Namilita NL $12.58 +0.40
Nicole E. NICE $33.99 -1.92
Nicole M. COLM $53.40 -1.04
Reagan REGN $117.64 -1.90
Ruby RJET $5.66 -0.15
Wilson WILC $4.12 -0.11
Winston ED $63.42 +1.28
Zero ZIP $11.37 -0.11
Zondro ZQK $2.19 -0.25
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