Mr. Sensitive

July 6, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:22

This week figured to be one of the most boring of the year, from a market standpoint, and it didn’t disappoint.  It was the first week of the quarter, a natural lull between the closing of prior quarter’s books and the start of the quarterly-earnings deluge (kicking off with Alcoa this coming Monday).  And not only was it the first week of the quarter, it was a holiday-shortened week.  And not only was it a holiday-shortened week, but the holiday in question came right smack in the middle of the week.  Can you guess how many traders worked both sides of that mid-week holiday?  I feel safe saying it was closer to none than to all.  The big news was the employment report this morning…which was disappointing to almost exactly the extent it was expected to be.  This was the takeaway from Reuters:

U.S. employers added only 80,000 jobs in June, a third straight month of weak hiring that shows the economy is still struggling three years after the recession ended.

Economists were projecting consensus of +90K to +100K; where’s the disappointment?   Crappy, after all, isn’t a synonym for disappointing; if you expected crap and crap is what you got, you’re not disappointed.  You’re not happy to be covered in crap, sure, but you’re not disappointed.  The economy isn’t adding jobs and it won’t add jobs unless and until we reject the made-in-China economic model we’ve adopted over the last decade-plus, swapping manufacturing jobs for low prices at Wal-mart.  The market understands this perfectly well, even if voters don’t.  It sold off on Friday, but the decline was reflexive and meaningless; this market is still on its summer sojourn to nowhere.

The Family Stock Index slightly outperformed the broader market indices by doing nothing, ending the week at 12,496 after starting it at 12,497.  With most of the season’s traveling over, it’s time for the rest of the summer to round into whatever it’s rounding into.  With the FSX all but unch, the market seems to have no better sense of what that will mean than I do.

Advancers

  • Jenny (JNY) +8.7%.  Jenny says she’s up so dramatically because Pretty Little Liars season 2 arrived for her on Netflix.  I say it’s a relief rally given that season 3 (in progress) won’t be available for marathon viewing any time soon.  Alas, I’m sure Jenny’s mother will think of something new and terrible to suggest for her.  Anyone care to lay odds that Jenny and Katie will be watching the last season of Mad Men together next year?
  • Reagan (REGN) +4.7%.  Reagan says her favorite shows are Jenny’s teen dramas, Secret Life of the American Teenager, Pretty Little Liars, and whatever else crap there is.  Really her favorite show is Phineas and Ferb.  Does the market prefer garbage teen shows or garbage kid shows?  Well, Jenny is -1.5% for 2012 and Reagan is +115%.  Seems pretty straightforward to me.
  • Nicole M. (COLM +1.5%) and Mario T.Y. (WMAR +1.5%).  They say the first two weeks of marriage are the hardest, and the market is relieved Mario and Nicole made it through.  Oh, so they don’t say the first two weeks of marriage are the hardest?  Well, they definitely say that the first week in a new FSX ticker is the hardest.  I know that for a fact because I’m the only one who says anything about the FSX, so they are me.
  • Icarus (ICS) +1.4%.  See?  New Ticker Relief Syndrome.  It’s a sure thing, as long as you ignore Nicole E. (NICE -1.9%).

Decliners

  • Jodi Ann (JOY -2.6%) and Marcus (MCS -3.0%).  They say that the last five weeks before your wedding are the hardest; good luck, guys.
  • Brinkley (BCO) -3.4%.  Brinky didn’t enjoy our fireworks; he likes his sleeps and doesn’t like whiz-bangs.  Eventually those preferences will reverse, but we’re not there yet.  Maybe next year, buddy.
  • Wilson (WILC) -4.1%.  The fireworks terrorized Wilson, but once again, failed to deliver the expected sweet release of death.  Maybe next year, buddy.
  • Lee (MSTR) -7.9%.  Through Thursday I was up 4% for the week and in 3rd place behind my daughters.  That made some sense to me; the latest tactical approach I’ve developed for this phase of the Book War appears to be working, and I expect to have several relatively placid weeks upcoming in which to apply it to the utmost.  Then today the market sliced $15 right off my face and now I’m back below $120 and in a deep hole for the quarter.  It seems that a company that does something similar to whatever it is that I do pre-announced that they didn’t do nearly as much of whatever we do in Q2 as expected.  Supposedly I sold off in sympathy with my sector, but I think that’s a bogus explanation.  I’m not in anyone’s sector, and I’m doing at least as much of whatever it is I do as I’ve ever done.  No, something more sinister is afoot, and the spiders are behind it.  Possibly also sharks.
Name Ticker 7/6/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $22.39 -0.79
Charlotte ICE $133.30 -2.68
Dustin DST $55.13 +0.82
Icarus ICS $15.48 +0.22
Jenny JNY $10.39 +0.83
Jodi Ann JOY $55.26 -1.47
Justin SCI $12.57 +0.20
Katie CATY $16.53 +0.02
Lee MSTR $119.57 -10.29
Lisa LNCE $25.46 +0.23
Lucas LEI $1.44 -0.04
Lulu LULU $59.54 -0.09
Marcus MCS $13.35 -0.41
Mario T.E. MGEE $47.71 +0.41
Mario T.Y. WMAR $11.93 +0.18
Marisa MOLX $23.62 -0.32
Namilita NL $12.18 -0.29
Nicole E. NICE $35.91 -0.69
Nicole M. COLM $54.44 +0.82
Reagan REGN $119.54 +5.32
Ruby RJET $5.81 +0.26
Wilson WILC $4.23 -0.18
Winston ED $62.14 -0.05
Zero ZIP $11.48 -0.25
Zondro ZQK $2.44 +0.11
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