Mr. Sensitive

June 29, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:10

So that’s it for Q2.  It was a rough quarter—if you were long—and would have been much worse without today’s latest Euro-relief rally.  It appears there was another EU summit, and the Germans representative nations in attendance agreed to use pre-existing bailout funds to directly re-capitalize insolvent banks, TARP-style.  The consensus among market pundits seems to be that this is too little, too late, but the markets themselves clearly don’t agree.  I don’t think a bank bailout will solve all Europe’s problems, but I also don’t think those problems are as acute as they’re often portrayed.  Europeans simply aren’t in as much of a hurry to do anything as we Americans are to do everything.  The Germans will eventually conquer Europe; it’s been one step back, two steps forward for Brandenburg-Prussia-Germany from at least the time of the Great Elector, and we Americans just don’t have the patience or the perspective to see the Germans working.  We’re wasting time and energy studying elections in Athens and mortgage defaults in Madrid.  The rest of Europe is irrelevant—we only have to be mindful of Berlin.  As long as the German government stays even-keel, Europe will be fine.  Athens can burn to the ground, Spain can sink into the Atlantic; after all, the Spanish haven’t had an impact on the course of Western civilization since the 16th Century, and the Greeks are working on several millennia of irrelevance.  The French fight amongst themselves when things go sour; same for the Italians.  The British have the Pound and the English Channel.  Germany is all that matters.  If they handle their business—and Merkel is doing a much better job than she gets credit for—the process of European integration will proceed as it ought.  If not, well, you know.

The Family Stock Index lifted off multi-month lows with a 400-point rally beginning in the final hour of trading on Thursday.  Even so, we lost 7% in the second quarter with only 7 of our 25 components gaining ground over those three months.  The FSX settled out at 12,497 ahead of the quarterly rebalancing and four-stock swap.  We’re two-thirds of the way through the three-weddings-in-three-months gauntlet, and so far, so good.  I heard uniformly positive reviews of last weekend’s Mario-Nicole tie-up; it sounds like it was a beautifully raucous event that I should definitely been nowhere near.

Advancers

  • Icarus (FLOW) +8.7%%.  This is a fitting sendoff for FLOW…except the stock has been a real stinker, down 22% for the quarter and 11% for 2012, even with this week’s rally.  So in fact it’s a discombobulated sendoff; that, in turn, is really fitting.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +7.8%.  Sisters at the beach means all Dora, all the time.  It’s good to be the king…of the family room.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +4.6%.  School’s finally done for the summer, or so Marcus reports.  Jodi Ann seems like she knows how to enjoy her time off; if she can teach Marcus to relax, even halfway, JOY should have no trouble erasing a 23% Q2 loss by Labor Day.
  • Katie (CATY) +3.8%.  Daughters at the beach means all Dora, all the time.  She pretends she doesn’t love it, but you won’t catch me sitting on the couch in the family room for the 60th viewing of ‘The Big Piñata.’
  • Justin (SCI) +3.1%.  After another fresh 52-week high and an index-leading second quarter, I’m starting to wonder if it matters what stock I put Justin in.  You can’t fight science writing.

Decliners

  • Jenny (JNY) -2.4%.  Middle school looms like a great black ship unfurling sails of futility and pain.  Or maybe she got a sunburn.
  • Lucas (LEI) -3.9%.  Like Jenny, it’s either the middle school pain-ship thing, or the sunburn thing.
  • Zondro (ZQK) -4.5%.  Zondro, I want you to look at Wilson.  When it gets hot outside, he lounges down by the pond under the oak tree, or in the shade under the deck, or under the canopy of foliage that overhangs the entire right side of the fence—and he’s happy as a clam.  I can’t make him come inside.  In contrast, you come up to the deck every twenty minutes and pace around in the blazing sun, in case I decide to let you in…which I never do, because you’re an outside dog and you need to come to terms with it.  Pacing around on the deck in 90 degree heat is stupid, and I don’t reward stupidity.  ***UPDATE*** I did bring both dogs in when the temperature topped 100 degrees this afternoon; Zondro was relieved, Wilson was horrified.
  • Ruby (RJET) -5.1%.  This is a classic example of buying the rumor and selling the news.  With her weight-loss goals achieved and her baby’s wedding a success, the market justifiably wonders what’s next.  What about hang-gliding?  That would definitely keep the market guessing.
  • LULU -7.8%.  Tough quarter for the Fat One.  A two-year run of new nosebleed highs seemingly came to an end after she topped $81 the first week of May (LULU traded at a split-adjusted $19 in the inaugural FSX).  Down more than 25% since, she’s still expensive at 44 times earnings.  At +28% for 2012, it’s certainly not panic time yet, but my experience with these momentum plays is that the first crack in the dam is never the last.  And it couldn’t happen to a more deserving cat.
Name Ticker 6/29/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $23.18 +1.67
Charlotte ICE $135.98 +2.80
Dustin DST $54.31 +1.14
Icarus FLOW $3.12 +0.25
Jenny JNY $9.56 -0.24
Jodi Ann JOY $56.73 +2.50
Justin SCI $12.37 +0.37
Katie CATY $16.51 +0.61
Lee MSTR $129.86 +0.72
Lisa LNCE $25.23 +0.65
Lucas LEI $1.48 -0.06
Lulu LULU $59.63 -5.06
Marcus MCS $13.76 +0.23
Mario T.E. MGEE $47.30 +0.68
Mario T.Y. SUP $16.37 +0.06
Marisa MOLX $23.94 -0.29
Namilita NL $12.47 +0.54
Nicole E. NI $24.75 +0.44
Nicole M. COL $49.35 +1.06
Reagan REGN $114.22 -1.68
Ruby RJET $5.55 -0.30
Wilson WILC $4.41 -0.13
Winston ED $62.19 +0.69
Zero ZIP $11.73 +0.39
Zondro ZQK $2.33 -0.11
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