Mr. Sensitive

May 30, 2012

They Don’t Know We Know They Know

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 11:00

The market is really on me about revising the stupid book; maybe I can ignore people, but I can’t ignore prices.  I finished the first draft on May 11 and the market has been falling since then–down 2.7% on the S&P through this morning–but the declines have hardly been precipitous.  Similarly, the FSX has given up 2.4% over those 10-plus trading sessions, with 19 of 25 members down, but no one has dropped more than nine percent…except me.  MSTR has fallen from $143 to below $124 this morning, a 13-percent slide that is too steep to attribute to volatility, earnings concerns, or anything other than pure investor animus.  Basically, they hate me and they think I’m a bum.  If I don’t punch this book in the mouth real soon I’m on my way to double-digits.  So what’s the problem?

I have to sweep and scrub the girls’ room this morning; that’s a problem, yes, but not the problem.

The problem is I’m looking for a tactical edge and I can’t find one.  The book knows where (Chapter 1) and when (before July 1st); it doesn’t know how (straight read-through, mark-up for grammar & spelling, mark-up for content?), but there’s no advantage there because I don’t know either.  Many of the momentous invasions in history have succeeded only to the extent that some misdirection or maskirovka allowed the attackers to wrong-foot the defenders, however briefly.  Napoleon gave the Russians way too much time to think about how to deal with him in 1812 (let the land itself beat the French), and he was doomed from the start.  The most successful invasions of modern times–Germany’s invasion of France in 1940 and the Anglo-American invasion of France in 1944–were fully anticipated, but they worked because the attackers made the defenders guess wrong.  In 1940, the French gambled on a repeat of the Schlieffen Plan and concentrated their strength in the North, only to watch the German panzers pass through the impassable Ardennes and bridge the Meuse in the South; in 1944, the Allies convinced Hitler that the cross-Channel invasion would come at Calais rather than the Normandy coast and German defenders couldn’t redeploy fast enough to prevent the Allies gaining critical beachheads.  Neither feint bought months or even weeks, but if enough force can be brought to bear, an advantage measured in hours might be enough to tilt the balance.

I need something.  I need a stunner.  June 1 would be an attractive-sounding starting date, wouldn’t it?  I can’t get underway on a nondescript, ugly Wednesday.  I can’t open an offensive on the second-to-last day of a month, can I?  June 1 is Friday.


1 Comment »

  1. But is a Friday a good day to start? Maybe it is because then you don’t feel too much pressure to get a certain amount done for the week. I’m for whatever works for you.

    Comment by euregirlsandboys — May 30, 2012 @ 15:54 | Reply

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