Mr. Sensitive

May 25, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:58

Last week’s update was as of the Thursday close; some bringing-up-to-speed is necessary.  The selloff continued on Friday to the extent that stocks finished last week down 4-5% on average.  I think profit-taking is the second-laziest reason the financial media gives for a drop in stock prices (the laziest is concern/fear about the concern/fear du jour).  So what was the reason for last week’s decline?  Profit-taking; perfectly sensible, too, heading into a summer during which trading will be thin and headline risk will be paramount.  There was also a noticeable lightening-up of positions in momentum plays like SBUX, AAPL, PCLN and CMG heading into the Facebook IPO.  The coverage of that debacle has been exhaustive and not confined to the financial press; all I’d say is that if you lined up to pay 100x earnings for a company with slowing revenue growth and clear challenges monetizing future user growth, you’re lucky to be down just 15%.  After the first-week drop and all the negative coverage, FB at $32 is still trading at 70x earnings.  Compare that to Google at 18x, Apple at 14x, and poor old Mr. Softy at 10x and tell me you can make a compelling bull case for Facebook—the stock, not the social network.

The broader market rallied reflexively this week by 1-2%, having sold off too aggressively in the five days prior.  The latest boogeyman is Chinese economic contraction, although I don’t know why anyone believes any of the numbers the PRC circulates.  The U.S. economic releases are heavily massaged as it is, but we can at least dig into the assumptions and demand disclosures.  None of this week’s news changes the fundamental direction of the market in the near-term, that near-term direction being directionless.  If I were giving advice, I’d say stay market-neutral through the November elections and the ejection of Greece from the Euro, buy stocks you like if they hit prices you’ve targeted, don’t panic, and don’t chase.

The Family Stock Index extended its pre-J/N Wedding slump on Friday, falling another 150 points on the day and scraping the psychologically-important 12,000 level before closing at 12,052, a loss of 5.8% for the week.  The market took an especially dim view of my Best-Manliness and the impact on Justin, sending both of us down more than 5 percent on Friday alone.  For the week, 24 of the 25 stocks in the FSX declined; only Marcus (MCS +1.7%) managed a gain.  I should have guessed at that point I’d be toasting alone.

But the weekend wasn’t so bad.  I had three potential negative scenarios in mind:

  1. I implode;
  2. I explode;
  3. Brinky doo-doo bombs the ceremony.

None of it happened.  Instead, the ceremony was beautiful and the entire weekend was reasonably well-structured.  I experienced an outpouring of poise and preemption—from Justin, from Nicole, from Chawly, from Katie (of course), from Jenny, and even a little from me.  I didn’t do too well from a comic book standpoint, but Unknown Soldier #268 for $1 is decent.

So maybe I went a little to pieces on the trip home.  It’s a long car ride, okay?

The FSX rallied 3.4% on the week, secret mini-breakdowns notwithstanding, to close at 12,457.

Advancers

  • Ruby (RJET) +12%.  SECRET HOUSE SALE?
  • Zero (ZIP) +11%.  My sister is pretty, and Zero married her.  Eventually she’s going to look like our Nan and cycle through the same five muu-muus for 30 years, but the Muu-Muu Cliff is still a ways off.
  • Reagan (REGN) +10%.  Reagan had a good time over the J/N wedding weekend, and she managed not to say anything crazy and/or offensive.  If she did blow her regular-kid cover, she also silenced the witnesses.  And really, isn’t that the same thing?
  • LULU +7.6%.  The cats really went to work on their litter boxes while we were gone.  I don’t know that this is the feat for which Lulu is being bid up this week, but I don’t know what else it could be.  She doesn’t do anything but befoul and befurr our lives—rudely.
  • Jenny (JNY) +6.7%.  Jenny’s crush on Josh Hutcherson is cute.

Josh Hutcherson isn’t.

  • Marcus (MCS) +6.5%.  Little known fact: Marcus was supposed to join Justin in the now-legendary performance of “I Want It That Way” at the Eure-Machi tie-up in 1999.  The ability to dodge the embarrassment bullets that fly about at weddings is a not-inconsiderable skill, and investors have pushed Marcus to a series of new 52-week highs in appreciation.
  • Katie (CATY) +6.4%.  I was trying to figure out who Katie reminded me of when she was dressed up for Sunday’s wedding.  Then I realized she reminded me of the Mii Jenny designed for her on the Wii.  That can’t be good.
  • Justin (SCI) +5.0%.  Watching the ceremony—and in particular, watching Nicole watch Justin during the ceremony—I realized for the first time that my little brother is clearly getting the better end of the deal.  The market agrees.

Decliners

  • Lee (MSTR) -1.8%.  Where’s my relief rally?  I’d been thinking my two-week slide from $156 to $126 was the market pricing in heightened relapse risk leading up to last weekend, but if that had been the case, I’d have had a nice pop this week.  Turns out the market wasn’t discounting the wedding trip and festivities at all—it was looking past them to the outbreak of Book War II.  I’m not any less mentally fatigued than I was when I finished the first draft two weeks ago, but impatience is steadily overmastering fatigue.  I need my head to clear just a little more; as soon as it does, I attack.  Holding off another five weeks to rest is the right thing to do…I just can’t do it.  I need to plan, but I need more information to plan.  I need a reconnaissance in force, probably next week.
  • Lisa (LNCE) -2.0%.  Does Lisa want Dustin to qualify as a golf pro?  Even if she does want him to, can he?  And if Dustin was a golf pro, would life be any different than it is?  Is it possible to play golf more often than all the time?  Investors are lightening up on Lisa as these weighty questions, um, weigh.
Name Ticker 5/25/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $23.23 +0.79
Charlotte ICE $125.49 +1.90
Dustin DST $51.79 -0.02
Icarus FLOW $3.07 +0.09
Jenny JNY $9.76 +0.61
Jodi Ann JOY $60.21 -0.43
Justin SCI $11.43 +0.54
Katie CATY $16.68 +1.01
Lee MSTR $126.76 -2.29
Lisa LNCE $25.64 -0.51
Lucas LEI $1.46 +0.02
Lulu LULU $72.06 +5.10
Marcus MCS $13.68 +0.83
Mario T.E. MGEE $45.36 -0.01
Mario T.Y. SUP $16.49 +0.32
Marisa MOLX $23.31 +0.23
Namilita NL $12.37 +0.09
Nicole B. NI $25.04 +0.61
Nicole L. COL $50.15 unch
Reagan REGN $132.17 +11.94
Ruby RJET $5.31 +0.56
Wilson WILC $4.40 +0.09
Winston ED $59.61 +0.94
Zero ZIP $10.22 +1.02
Zondro ZQK $2.81 +0.07
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4 Comments »

  1. I’m not sure if I like what you’re saying about me, that I’m short and a bit chubby like my Mii.

    Comment by euregirlsandboys — May 26, 2012 @ 20:45 | Reply

  2. The legendary muu-muu collection. She had one for every occasion. At the very least, I’m going to wear one to every fancy holiday party.

    Comment by Charlotte — May 30, 2012 @ 11:11 | Reply

  3. Charlotte, I’m going to host lots of fancy holiday parties, so you’ve got some shopping to do! I went to the SS office 2 days ago, so I’m officially a Eure! I’m glad you made it all way out of the venue and into the car to have a mini-breakdown. I hope it had nothing to do with the vegan cupcakes. 🙂

    Comment by nicole — May 31, 2012 @ 13:16 | Reply

    • I made it about two hours down the road, in fact. It almost certainly was not the cupcakes, not unless they gave off some sort of poisonous fumes. I realize that’s a big unless.

      Comment by lbej — May 31, 2012 @ 14:49 | Reply


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