Mr. Sensitive

May 17, 2012

FSX Thursday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:51

The FSX Update is here for your soul a day early this week, so get excited!  Tomorrow is just going to be too much: it’s the Facebook IPO, my annual physical, and the pack-up/freak-out in advance of Saturday morning’s early departure, and I have to have to HAVE TO figure out what I’m going to say in my wedding toast.  At this point I’m probably not going to just hand the mic to Brinky for him to eat/throw/yell into, but the Brinky Option has all the momentum.

This week has been an ugly one in the stock market: down every day, selling into the close, ugly internals, no leadership from the sectors that have to lead (industrials, financials, tech), more face time for the gloomy Meredith Whitneys and Nouriel Roubinis of the investment world.  Is it overwrought?  Yes.  Remember, the corporatists want you to panic and lose faith in the market and the economy…until after the November elections, at least.  We’re down 7% from the year’s highs and still sitting on solid gains for the year—this isn’t even a correction yet, let alone a new bear market.  I think we will get that 10% correction, though, and we will go negative for 2012 in the next few months.  The reason is simple: sell-in-May-and-go-away is true.  Stocks peaked in mid-April and it’s been all downhill since then.  All the fundamental reasons given—Europe is a mess, banks are too big and too risky, the job market is flat, the economy is in the 2%-growth-doldrums—were true when we set off on the 40% rally that began last fall.  It’s sell-in-May-and-go-away.  It’s big money taking a few volatile months off, cutting exposure to headline risk and vacationing more often than not.  That’s it.

But what about—no.  That’s it.

The Family Stock Index took an outsized beating this week, down 4.5% through four days to close Thursday at 12,212; only two of our 25 members finished in the green.  In May alone we’ve lost more than 1,100 points off the index and 8 members of the FSX have lost 15% or more.  We’ve got our correction, with a 10% decline from the March 27 high above 13,600.  We broke the 50-day SMA last week and the 100-day this week, wiping out all our short-term momentum.  I won’t be worried about the long-term bull trend unless we break the 200-day average, still 500 points below current levels.  We’ll test it, I think, but it will hold.  From a fundamental standpoint, the Justin-Nicole marriage and the end of Book War I—both over and done now—were priced in weeks ago and we’re getting no upside there.  The actual wedding is more of a risk event for the FSX; if it comes off well we could get a bounce at the open on Monday.

Advancers

  • Marcus (MCS) +1.1%.  Investors seem to think Marcus’s best-man toast will be better than mine (MSTR -4.8%).  If he’s got something other than fart jokes, fart noises, and farts, they’re probably right.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +0.6%.  I hope Lisa had a lovely Mother’s Day.  Here we just had fart jokes, fart noises, and farts.

Decliners

  • Icarus (FLOW) -5.7%.  The pets of the FSX really took it on the chin this week.  My theory is that there’s some not-entirely-unfounded concern that wedding-related travel could have an outsized negative impact.  Winston (ED -2.1%) was naturally unaffected, but Icarus initially sold off with the Pfafftown pets and Namilita.  Then the market realized Justin would be more likely to forget Nicole than Icky, and he rallied to cut his losses.
  • Reagan (REGN -6.2%), Katie (CATY -6.5%) and Jenny (JNY -6.6%).  So the market’s saying the three of them will have a harder time travelling with me (-4.8%) than I will with them?  I’ve always thought of myself as a splendid travelling companion.
  • Brinkley (BCO) -8.5%.  Although perhaps I’m not the LBE the girls need to be worried about.
  • Marisa (MOLX) -7.4%.  Marisa wouldn’t be happy if we failed to leave her food bowls full.  She wouldn’t be happy if she were left outside for the duration of our trip; she also wouldn’t be happy if she were left inside.  If she were left inside (no access to delicious birds) with inadequately-filled food bowls, that would be the worst scenario…
  • LULU -8.9%.  …because she’d have to eat the Fat One.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -8.9%.  Katie—check.  Zero—check.  Nicole—check, I think (and insulated by the wedding dress if not).  Jodi Ann’s the only significant other not to have been exposed to Unc. Taze.  And there’s just no way to prepare.
Name Ticker 5/17/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $22.60 -2.11
Charlotte ICE $121.34 -2.64
Dustin DST $52.97 -0.51
Icarus FLOW $3.00 -0.18
Jenny JNY $9.20 -0.65
Jodi Ann JOY $59.11 -5.80
Justin SCI $11.47 -0.42
Katie CATY $15.89 -1.10
Lee MSTR $136.00 -6.84
Lisa LNCE $26.44 +0.16
Lucas LEI $1.40 -0.22
Lulu LULU $66.97 -6.57
Marcus MCS $12.78 +0.14
Mario T.E. MGEE $45.50 -0.60
Mario T.Y. SUP $16.27 -0.42
Marisa MOLX $23.48 -1.88
Namilita NL $11.89 -1.03
Nicole B. NI $24.66 -0.59
Nicole L. COL $50.39 -1.60
Reagan REGN $125.74 -8.35
Ruby RJET $4.93 -0.15
Wilson WILC $4.45 -0.01
Winston ED $58.56 -1.25
Zero ZIP $9.67 -0.72
Zondro ZQK $2.79 -0.22

 

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