Mr. Sensitive

March 16, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:07

This market is getting tired, going nowhere at the end of the week after making decisive highs at the beginning.  Or maybe traders have just switched from checking the tape to checking their brackets for a couple days.  We’ll see next week.

The banks are still on a tear, though—B of A is up 22% just this week.  The government’s stress test results were released earlier this week; there weren’t many negative surprises (Citi, Met Life) and prospects for dividend hikes and M&A have brightened considerably.  The big boys still aren’t lending, but what did you expect—banks making loans?  Folks in the banking business have been waiting for the next wave of mergers since I was one of the folks in the banking business—and I’ve been retired for more than two years now.  There was a lot of talk throughout the business about a pent-up desire to do deals, and how it wouldn’t be long before the second- and third-tier banks got active again.  Well, that was 2009, and nothing has happened since I left.  Are you guys waiting for me to come back?  Don’t hold your breath.

The Family Stock Index is still several hundred points below the April 2011 highs, but at +20% for 2012 and +44% from the October lows, that’s no reason to complain.  A market-beating 3.2% increase this week masked a flattening out of the FSX internals; only 14 stocks were higher on the week, fewer than the 17 advancers in the midst of last week’s -0.2% decline.  The index is very overweight Reagan and Justin and will be until the rebalancing in two weeks.  For the rest of this month the risk profile is unattractive and I would view a March close above 13,000 as very bullish.

Advancers

  • Justin (WOLF) +29%.  Justin announced Tuesday that he has agreed to be acquired by private-equity firm Apollo Global for $5/share in cash plus assumption of debt.  The market immediately told him to stick his Lincoln where the sun don’t shine; a flurry of shareholder lawsuits were filed over the next few days and the stock closed Friday at $5.40, nearly 10% above the proposed takeout price.  Normally I would make plans to remove WOLF from the FSX on this kind of announcement, but I don’t think this story is anywhere close to over.  Rumor has it that Apollo would be repositioning the business, moving Justin from the field of science writing to the more lucrative business of…some kind of business, probably.  Certainly nothing involving science or writing.  If those mini-Romneys think my little brother would give up his widely-reputed dream job for a measly $5, they’re gravely mistaken.  It’ll take at least $6.  $3.50 if Nicole finds out there’s a deal on the table.
  • Katie (CATY) +8.1%.  When young Brinkley punished his mother for trying to sleep at night throughout most of 2011, the market punished her as well.  So does the 2012 Katie rally mean Brinky is sleeping better?  Not really, no.  But there is less dream disruption for the market to discount than there was a year ago; after all, now we only have 17 years until Brinky goes to college.
  • Reagan (REGN) +7.6%.  Reagan is the AAPL of the FSX, up 108% year-to-date on top of a 67% gain in 2011.  She has produced more than a quarter of the rise in the index in 2012 and now accounts for 9% of its total value.  I don’t publicize the initial weightings given to FSX members, but I don’t mind disclosing that it’s nowhere near 9%.  Now if she can just hang on for two more weeks the rebalancing will cushion the damage the index will suffer when the air inevitably leaks out of the Ray Gun Bubble.
  • Icarus (FLOW) +6.8%.  Apollo must think the dog is sold separately.  It isn’t.  He comes with Justin, like it or not.
  • Jenny (JNY) +6.3%.  Jenny finished the Hunger Games books this week, and the market is relieved that the misery is finally at an end.  Expect a sell-off when word hits the Street that she’s re-reading the whole series.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +6.1%.  The mild winter and early spring pushed Lisa to a new 52-week high on Thursday, but there are sinister implications to the 2011-2012 winter fizzle.  It is an unambiguous boon to the spiders, and the unabated rally in her stock suggests to me that Lisa has made some kind of deal with them.  I have no problem with this on principle; you do what you have to do.  But I have said many times that the Yard Dominion is not to be trusted; I guess there are just some things you have to learn for yourself.
  • Mario the Younger (SUP) +6.0%.  Mario should be arriving in the sweet spot of wedding planning fairly soon—the point when the groom finally convinces the bride of his incompetence and/or disinterest to the point that she does all the planning and leaves him alone.  I’m sure I would have been surprised by the decoration of the church or the seating plan for the guests or the menu for the reception at my wedding, except that you have to notice things to be surprised by them.

Decliners

  • Zondro (ZQK) -1.9%.  Had a puke party on the floor, and on the mattress, and in his crate.
  • Charlotte (ICE) -2.0%.  Could Charlotte have sold to Apollo ahead of Justin?  Certainly she’s got nicer hair than he does, and I think she might even be better in a fight.  $5 a share would be quite a comedown for Charlotte, though, after making a new 52-week high above $142 this week.  Let’s hope she’s not expecting a premium when the Jenny-Reagan-Brinky takeover closes at the beginning of May.  They’re good for hugs and biting insights, but not much else.
  • Nicole B. (NI) -2.0%.  Can you still change the colors for your wedding party after the wedding is over?  Something tells me we’re going to find out.  And what is Dusty Rose, anyway?  Wasn’t he a wrestler?

There’s your wedding color scheme, Nicole.

  • Ruby (RJET) -4.1%.  Closed at the same price ($4.70) as Wilson.  Is that a bad omen?  Having anything in common with Wilson isn’t good.
  • Wilson (WILC) -6.2%.  Because I haven’t figured out how Zondro’s puke party is Wilson’s fault doesn’t mean it isn’t.
Name Ticker 3/16/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $25.37 -0.22
Charlotte ICE $139.00 -2.82
Dustin DST $54.97 +0.65
Icarus FLOW $4.09 +0.26
Jenny JNY $11.43 +0.68
Jodi Ann JOY $80.25 -0.06
Justin WOLF $5.38 +1.22
Katie CATY $18.03 +1.35
Lee MSTR $130.75 -0.50
Lisa LNCE $24.14 +1.38
Lucas LEI $2.64 -0.01
Lulu LULU $72.04 -0.05
Marcus MCS $12.43 +0.39
Mario T.E. MGEE $44.91 +0.15
Mario T.Y. SUP $19.44 +1.10
Marisa MOLX $27.83 +0.54
Namilita NL $14.32 +0.02
Nicole B. NI $23.61 -0.49
Nicole L. COL $58.74 -0.11
Reagan REGN $115.33 +8.12
Ruby RJET $4.70 -0.20
Wilson WILC $4.70 -0.31
Winston ED $57.62 -0.77
Zero ZIP $14.30 +0.31
Zondro ZQK $4.18 -0.08
Advertisements

1 Comment »

  1. I purchased two plane tickets on Friday, so maybe my stock will rise next week.

    Comment by Ruby Machi — March 19, 2012 @ 10:51 | Reply


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: