Mr. Sensitive

March 9, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:26

Uncertainty is being leeched out of the markets everywhere you look.  A half-default default has been agreed upon for Greece (we won’t pay but it’s okay, © the Ghost of Johnnie Cochran); the employment situation in the U.S. is still both positive and non-inflationary; Romney will be the Republican nominee for President; but it doesn’t matter because job growth will secure reelection for Obama.  In FSX Land, resolutions to Jenny’s middle school selection process and my wedding-gauntlet crisis have taken out major obstacles to a spring rally.  The net result: nothing.  All averages flat.  Maybe everyone’s already waiting in line for the iPad3.

Advancers really crushed the decliners in Family Stock Index this week, 17 to 8, yet we were down 0.2% on the week to 12,871.  The problem:  Ruby and Reagan.  Those two have run up so much this quarter and now represent so much of the FSX on a percentage basis that they can (and did) handily swamp whatever sentiment might otherwise prevail.  And we’ve got another three weeks of that to go before rebalancing.

Advancers

  • Jenny (JNY) +7.3%.  Jenny visited the last of her three middle school choices yesterday, and I don’t like it that her distaste was HEAVILY and STUPIDLY influenced by that school’s very permissive dress code, but her mother and I are still happy with the overall outcome.  Jenny was telling Reagan that she wasn’t going to Hanes because she wasn’t comfortable there, and I felt a need to remind her that she’s not going there because her mother and father are comfortable with where she is going.  She said something along the lines of ‘but you wouldn’t make me go somewhere for school if I didn’t like it.’  I said that I wouldn’t…if she had more appealing options that gave her comparable educational opportunities.  Otherwise, she will do what her mother and I think gives her the best chance at happiness in the future, whether she likes it or not, because that’s how this works.
  • Marcus (MCS) +6.1%.  Maybe the market isn’t happy that I’m not going to smash my face against a trip to New York for Marcus’ wedding, but it is relieved on his behalf.
  • Zero (ZIP) +3.6%.  I have a theory here, one that I admit is unconfirmed and supported by only sketchy, dated anecdotal evidence:  I don’t think Zero was nearly as conflicted about this year’s destination decision as Charlotte.  On the one hand, he could live in snow-free NC with just his lady, and on the other hand he could go back to the neverending youth hostel that is Team Charlotte, Long Island Edition.  And Zero doesn’t read this glob because it’s not about guitars, so my unrefuted theories are almost the same as facts.
  • Marios (MGEE +3.2%, SUP +3.0%).  Tomorrow is Mario Day, duh.
  • Lisa (LNCE) +3.1%.  Spring is all up in everybody’s business this week.  Looks like that stupid groundhog got it wrong last month; bad for me, but good for the spring-centric members of the FSX.
  • Dustin (DST) +2.5%.  And good for golfers.
  • Katie (CATY) +2.3%.  The over-under on Katie going to see Hunger Games in the theater with Jenny is currently at 100 percent.  I know that’s not how betting lines work (I think maybe I don’t know how they work), but it’s no less loopy than the idea of building a multi-media franchise built on a character as profoundly contemptible and unlikable as Katniss Everdeen (see how I brought it around like that?).  Maybe the market thinks it’s good for Katie to have Jenny reading those books, but I’m not so sure.  I’ve got Jenny prepared for the atrocity that is Mockingjay, and Katie may end up defending the indefensible ending of that book a second time.  Jenny—unlike those desensitized by Jodi Picoult—doesn’t like it when all the decent people in the world are slaughtered for no reason.  Actually, the reason is that Suzanne Collins had to write children’s TV shows for fifteen years and over that time came to hate children, so she wanted to write a book about killing them.  I should have my antipathy fully recharged by the time Jenny finishes the trilogy.  Feels pretty charged right now, come to think of it.

Decliners

  • Reagan (REGN) -1.5%.  Reagan is a non-stop freak-out right now.  Freak peaks and valley have been replaced with peaks and higher peaks.  Two days ago Brinky grabbed some white-out that Reagan left on the table and tried to eat it—it was dried out because she’d also forgotten to put the cap back on, thwarting him—and I told her that stuff is poisonous so she can’t leave it where he can reach it (i.e., everywhere).  This caused a complete sobbing meltdown that lasted for an hour.  Then yesterday she tried to hug/mug Brinky (he’s too big for her to do whatever sort of picking-up/holding fail she keeps trying to do) and he banged his head on the hall floor pretty hard.  Brinky did what he always does when he runs into something: (1) scream like he’s being eaten by ants for 60 seconds; (2) notice something he’d like to have in his mouth; (3) forget that anything bad happened.  In contrast, Reagan sobbed for half an hour.  I try to reason with her.  She says she hurt Brinky; I say he’s fine, look at him eating that hairbrush.  She says she’s in trouble; I say only I get to decide that, and don’t tell me I decided something I didn’t.  Nothing I say matters.  The thing is, if she messes something up—makes a mess, upsets Brinky, doesn’t come home from playing when she’s supposed to—I need her to help fix the problem and learn from the mistake going forward.  Instead she does neither and has a very unhelpful conniption.  I try to be understanding because she got this crazy mostly from my side of the family, but I’m getting fed up.  She’s going to start getting in trouble for acting like she’s in trouble when she’s not actually in trouble.
  • Lee (MSTR) -3.1%.  The final phase in the Book War will begin March 19.  Of the original 22 chapters, I’ve taken 16 and only six remain under Book Four control (per the latest revisions, the numbers are 17 and 7).  The book can no longer win, but I can still lose.  With technical victory certain, my concern turns to achieving objectives and setting the conditions in which the postwar settlement will be made (i.e., the second draft).  This is the situation in which the World War II allies found themselves after 1944, and in hindsight, the Soviets played it better than the Anglo-American side.  By 1944 Stalin was comfortable getting out of the way of Shaposhnikov, Konev, Rokossovsky and Zhukov (he would kill whichever of them needed killing after the war—none, as it turns out).  The result was Soviet Deep Battle—as originally conceived by Tukhachevsky in the 1930s—on display for the first time (Stalin did kill poor Tukhy in 1937, oops).  Operation Bagration in 1944 and the Vistula-Oder Offensive in 1945 were multi-level, multi-front offensives that penetrated German lines to the operational and strategic depth and brought the Red Army from behind Minsk to within 100 miles of Berlin.  The gains made in those offensives would be held, in one form or another, for the next 45 years, long after Hitler’s Reich was pounded into dust.  I am in the process of planning the ultimate defeat of Book Four in a similar fashion.  The final 7 chapters must be encompassed entirely from the start of the offensive.  Even if they have to be taken in sequence—and they do—the conditions of their downfall must be as clear to me in Week 1 of the offensive as in Week 7.  That means a lot of planning over the next ten days, especially with respect to deployments from the reserve pool of plot and character elements.  My brain looks like this right now:

Why is that bad?  Because it’s in Russian, and I can’t read Russian.

  • Zondro (ZQK) -6.4%.  If he doesn’t stop climbing up on the table to scrounge for food I may just let him dig out from under the fence so that all my canine problems resolve themselves.  I just have to remember to accidently take off his collar with its address tag before I accidently move the weight plates blocking the holes under the fence.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) -6.4%.  Marcus says Jodi Ann is reading the Hunger Games books again as well.  Maybe she’ll be inspired to have a Hunger Games-themed wedding where she and Marcus gather all their loved ones together, electrocute them, boil them in blood, and feed them all to mutant snakes.  Have fun, everybody!  May the odds be ever in your favor!
  • Ruby (RJET) -7.9%.  Traveling again, but this time only to Wytheville.  The market’s not buying if there are no frequent-flier miles involved.
  • Lucas (LEI) -10%.  I told Lucas that if he was going to invest in Greek paper, he needed a CDS overlay.  He said no, the spread is too wide and ISDA might not decide a voluntary restructuring constitutes a credit event anyway—how do I hedge that?  I had to agree that short of a prohibitively expensive custom swap tied to ISDA action or non-action, he’d have no way to hedge it.  So he went uncovered, and now he’s going to take a bath.  You think Lucas wanted to take a haircut on that debt?  They don’t tell you about sovereign credit risk in middle school orientation, but they should.
Name Ticker 3/9/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $25.59 +0.22
Charlotte ICE $141.82 +2.49
Dustin DST $54.32 +1.32
Icarus FLOW $3.83 -0.02
Jenny JNY $10.75 +0.73
Jodi Ann JOY $80.31 -5.49
Justin WOLF $4.16 -0.05
Katie CATY $16.68 +0.38
Lee MSTR $131.25 -4.22
Lisa LNCE $22.76 +0.68
Lucas LEI $2.65 -0.29
Lulu LULU $72.09 +1.61
Marcus MCS $12.04 +0.69
Mario T.E. MGEE $44.76 +1.38
Mario T.Y. SUP $18.34 +0.53
Marisa MOLX $27.29 +0.58
Namilita NL $14.30 +0.36
Nicole B. NI $24.10 +0.41
Nicole L. COL $58.85 +0.07
Reagan REGN $107.21 -1.59
Ruby RJET $4.90 -0.42
Wilson WILC $5.01 +0.11
Winston ED $58.39 +0.08
Zero ZIP $13.99 +0.49
Zondro ZQK $4.26 -0.29
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1 Comment »

  1. Your theory is correct. Zero’s been decisive about this move, and it’s been very helpful.

    Comment by Charlotte — March 11, 2012 @ 16:46 | Reply


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