Mr. Sensitive

February 24, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:59

It was a milestone week for U.S. equities, as the Dow crossed 13,000 for the first time since the summer of 2008 and the Nasdaq posted a series of new ten-year highs.  I didn’t figure 13,000 to be significant from a technical standpoint, but I’ll be darned if the markets didn’t sell off every time that level was breached this week.  The Family Stock Index topped the 13,000 level as well, revisiting last week’s eight-month highs in the process.  This week’s steadily affirmative trading pushed the index up 1.5% to a 13,015 Friday close, with the gains coming on a week when the #1 stock of 2012—Reagan (REGN)—traded flat and #2 Ruby fell off a cliff.  If the FSX rally is going to take another leg up, it can’t do it on the backs of these two alone.  That we can have a rotation into long-time laggards (me, Lucas, Charlotte, Brinky) during a two-week period in which we also made new highs is very impressive.  I’m getting so bullish that it has to be a sell signal.

Advancers

  • Justin (WOLF) +20%.  Justin blew through his 52-week high this week and now stands at +50% for 2012.  The tangible positives are considerable: employment, engagement, and new living quarters.  Sounds like me circa 1999, but hopefully without a decade-long train wreck on the horizon.  I don’t have so redoubtable a canine, but I have much more reliable hairline.  That’s called balancing the scales.
  • Lucas (LEI) +18%.  Lucas sitting out the 2012 FSX rally was as unnatural as Zero leading it; the role reversal of the last two weeks is another important bullish indicator for the index.
  • Lee (MSTR) +9.3%.  Katie’s take on this is that I did my writing crazy awesome, and I worked late enough on Tuesday that she got to watch Parenthood almost live.  I did work hard this week on a chapter that ended up being much longer than I expected—I may split it during the rewrites—and I did almost eight thousand words in a little over 24 hours at one point.  I wasn’t done until almost 10 pm on Tuesday, which was so far past my bedtime that it felt like bedtime of the next day.  The two big takeaways: (1) I’m going to win the Book War, and (2) I’m really old.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +4.3%.  Two words: fruit snacks.
  • Charlotte (ICE) +3.9%.  Jenny reports that Charlotte is definitely moving to North Carolina, although neither Katie nor I have been able to confirm that.  Jenny’s blockbuster acquisition of Charlotte would be as significant a deal as any of the year’s nuptials, with Reagan and Brinky likely becoming minority owners.  I don’t know if Charlotte knows she’s being taken over by Jenny, but the market is clearly building in an acquisition premium.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +2.8%.  No resolution to the three-syllable conundrum has been proposed to me, and so I’m taking matters into my own hands.  I’ve decided to eschew Jodi altogether—I’ve known too many Jodis—and go for some kind of mutant name.  Could I perhaps merge the elements of her name into something more palatable?  I started with Jan, but we have an Aunt Jan, so that’s out.  Then I moved on to Jam, but that’s got a little too much energy.  What about Jem?  Jem is excitement, but also glamour, fashion, and fame.  And red hair is close to pink, right?

Decliners

  • Jenny (JNY) -3.0%.  The middle school selection process is becoming pretty nerve-racking for Jenny and for her parents.  I thought we were locked into our residential school, but then Jenny tested into the smarty-pants program and we had two to consider.  We got back to one, but then Jenny talked to her teacher about it, and suddenly we were considering three(!) schools.  The market hates uncertainty; it also hates middle schools that are more than twenty minutes away.
  • Katie (CATY) -4.2%.  According to Katie, she’s down this week because she’s a Fatty Fatterson with no willpower so she’s not going to win the weight loss contest at her work.  I think the market is more concerned about fallout from the middle school selection process.  This is a novelty for both of us, after all.  The first school choice either of us made was college, and I got that one wrong on the first try.
  • Zero (ZIP) -4.2%.  The Charlotte deal will land Jenny a secondary asset in the bargain: Zero.  It’s clear that the market thinks Jenny will have neither the ability to manage Zero nor the savvy to get a good price for him in a sale.  Hopefully she won’t be so short-sighted when the time comes to pull the trigger; Charlotte may have the more recognizable brand, but Zero is a cash cow.
  • Ruby (RJET) -11.4%.  Ruby had clearly priced in some aggressive travel expectations, and just one month in which she spends more time at home than on the road is enough to knock some of the wind out of the stock.  With RJET still 50% above year-end 2011 levels, it would take a move below $4.50 to set off any real alarms.
Name Ticker 2/24/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $24.85 +1.02
Charlotte ICE $139.74 +5.27
Dustin DST $53.39 +0.47
Icarus FLOW $4.14 -0.16
Jenny JNY $9.57 -0.30
Jodi Ann JOY $90.65 +2.43
Justin WOLF $4.30 +0.72
Katie CATY $16.53 -0.73
Lee MSTR $137.82 +11.72
Lisa LNCE $22.37 +0.45
Lucas LEI $3.03 +0.46
Lulu LULU $66.59 +1.58
Marcus MCS $12.85 +0.33
Mario T.E. MGEE $46.10 +0.22
Mario T.Y. SUP $18.56 -0.55
Marisa MOLX $27.40 -0.18
Namilita NL $15.15 -0.44
Nicole B. NI $23.68 -0.11
Nicole L. COL $59.88 +0.43
Reagan REGN $103.22 -0.06
Ruby RJET $5.07 -0.65
Wilson WILC $4.96 +0.11
Winston ED $58.84 +0.97
Zero ZIP $13.47 -0.59
Zondro ZQK $4.60 -0.09
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