Mr. Sensitive

February 17, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:59

This market still wants to go down.  I feel it wanting to drop, even as it keeps going up.  Sometimes we do things we don’t want to do.  Did I want to eat that entire stick of Ritz crackers in the middle of the night?  Not really.  And the market doesn’t really want to go up like this.  It’s just that there’s too much money chasing incremental returns, trying to keep ahead of commodity inflation (don’t look now, but after taking the end of last year off, it’s definitely back).  I like stocks as an asset class here—stocks of companies with free cash flow, not growth stocks—because I think corporations are more powerful and more effective entities on balance than any other institutions.  National governments, militaries, supranational organizations, world religions—you name it, and you can see it being undermined or co-opted by multinational corporations.  The scariest aspect of it is the selective acquiescence.  Americans don’t want their government—the one they control—to tell them what to do about anything ever.  That’s a given.  They also don’t want certain corporations to demonstrate influence or control.  People will resist the idea (if not the reality) of JP Morgan or Exxon Mobil running their lives as much as they’ll resist anything.  But if Apple wakes you up in the morning, tells you where to be throughout the day, and puts you to bed at night, you love it.  You can’t wait to buy the next iControl.  You can’t wait to stand in line to buy it.  And it’s not just Apple, lest you should think I’m picking on them.  It’s Google, it’s Amazon, it’s Disney, it’s Facebook.  It’s Starbucks, unless it isn’t.  It was Netflix, until it wasn’t.  Not all of these companies know how to run the world, but the ones that do, really do.  If not for the self-correcting wonders of hubris and overreach, we’d really be at their mercy.  As it is, they’re a better bet than the U.S. Treasury.

So why do I say the market wants to go down?  Because bulls get tired, too.  They need to take some profits, they need to check their allocations, they need to throw the bears a bone, one with at least a little meat on it.  We need a pullback here, maybe not more than five percent, but we need something.  Maybe next week we’ll get it.

The Family Stock Index burst out of the gate on Monday behind another 12% gain in Reagan and finished the day with the first close above 13,000 in more than eight months (during which time we bottomed out at 9200).  Reagan gave back almost all of her Monday spurt during the week, but a broad group of stocks posted gains in the range of 2-5% and the losers didn’t lose so much that we ever fell into the red.  The FSX ended the week at 12,819, up 1.3% and in line with the major averages.  This four-month bull run seemed to culminate on Katie’s 34th birthday on Monday; next week we will see if that was more than a short-term top.

Advancers

  • Icarus (FLOW) +7.8%.  Brought down a deer.
  • Wilson (WILC) +5.4%.  Ignored a deer (probably).
  • Namilita (NL) +5.6%.  Cuter than a deer.
  • Jodi Ann (JOY) +5.3%.  Oh, good.  Dogs and cats are nice and all, but the FSX, like Soylent Green, is people.  Do you know that I don’t know what Soylent Green is, apart from being people?  Is it a book, a movie, a ballet?  I have no idea.  I think JOY’s correction last week had something to do with Nicole B.’s stock car-like move to cut in front of Jodi Ann in the Race to Eure.  Then the market realized that Katie won that race already—last century—and all she got out of it is joint ownership of 95 thousand comic books, give or take.  And some babies.  And lots of stretch marks from the babies.
  • Justin (WOLF) +4.5%.  Could Justin bring down a deer?  Hard to say.  Is there any chance that he won’t now try?
  • Nicole (NI) +3.2%.  Could Nicole bring down a deer?  If they hadn’t already sent out the save-the-dates, the competition for Justin’s hand might very well have opened back up this week.

Decliners

  • Brinkley (BCO) -1.4%.  Jenny wasn’t much older than Brinky is now when she first climbed out of her crib; not soon thereafter she was able to open her door as well.  I don’t expect either of those things from Brinky.  Having gleaned a sense of his personal style over these 14 months, I do expect him to tear off the front of his crib, climb carefully out, and then smash down the door.  The market, future-discounting mechanism that it is, knows that door is coming out of his future allowance.
  • Winston (ED) -2.1%.  Poor Ed Winston, you think.  But in fact, almost all of Ed’s apparent decline is due to the stock going ex-dividend this week, and the dividend is substantial.  With that 4.2% yield, you can almost understand why Mario would want a terrier.  Almost.
  • Ruby (RJET) -2.6%.  Reagan and I had a funny conversation this morning.  She and Jenny had piled up about a dozen stuffed animals to take to Hilton Head, and I asked Reagan if she thought that was maybe too much.  ‘Grandpa won’t care,’ she assured me.  ‘He’ll just think it’s funny and we’ll get to bring them all.’  ‘What about Boo-Boo?’ I asked.  ‘Oh, I forgot Boo-boo will be there this time,’ Reagan said.  It will surprise no one to learn that they put some of those stuffed animals back.
  • Zero (ZIP) -8.3%.  Watching Zero lead the FSX higher was unnatural.  The market can always count on Zero to recognize when matters aren’t as they should be, and to do whatever he must to make it right.   In this case, he made it right by whiffing on profits and revenue and going promptly into the tank.

 

Name Ticker 2/17/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $23.83 -0.34
Charlotte ICE $134.47 -0.36
Dustin DST $52.92 +1.28
Icarus FLOW $4.30 +0.31
Jenny JNY $9.87 +0.15
Jodi Ann JOY $88.22 +4.47
Justin WOLF $3.59 +0.16
Katie CATY $17.26 -0.04
Lee MSTR $126.10 +3.38
Lisa LNCE $21.92 -0.06
Lucas LEI $2.57 +0.18
Lulu LULU $65.01 -0.32
Marcus MCS $12.52 +0.26
Mario T.E. MGEE $45.88 +0.42
Mario T.Y. SUP $19.11 +0.43
Marisa MOLX $27.58 +0.28
Namilita NL $15.59 +0.82
Nicole B. NI $23.79 +0.73
Nicole L. COL $59.45 +0.42
Reagan REGN $103.28 +1.20
Ruby RJET $5.72 -0.15
Wilson WILC $4.85 +0.25
Winston ED $57.87 -1.26
Zero ZIP $14.06 -1.27
Zondro ZQK $4.69 +0.14
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