Mr. Sensitive

February 3, 2012

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:09

The stock market is at its highest levels since 2008.  Do you know who hates this?  Mitt Romney, that’s who.

Not only is this an election year, it’s the Year of Three Weddings.  That means four separate out-of-town overnight trips for me in one year, the first such year since…hell if I know.  It hasn’t happened in this century.  Three weddings and a comic convention.  Sounds like a Hugh Grant movie.  The Family Stock Index continues to rally furiously on the nuptial news, up another 4.1% on the week to 12,816.  The FSX has rallied by 15.7% in 2012 alone and is a full forty percent above the lows of early October.  I’m starting to get spooked by the valuation stretch, wondering where the wedding growth is going to come from.  It’s a little bit like trying to value a Groupon or a Facebook, a company coming to market with the truly meteoric phase of its growth cycle having already taken place.  A three-wedding year is nice, but what does that leave in the wedding pipeline?  Bupkiss is what.  If Jenny gets married as early as her mother did—the earliest I can imagine not making an unholy stink about it—we’re looking at late 2022 to early 2023.  And I can’t imagine not making a stink about it even then.  Lucas is two years younger, yes, but there’s a long weddingless stretch ahead for the FSX however you slice it.  That’s a lot of pressure on those of us who haven’t managed a wedding in a decade or more—maybe we should take a page from the Seal-Heidi playbook and renew our vows annually.

On second thought, maybe not.

Advancers

  • Ruby (RJET) +16.6%.  Reagan has posted a 75% gain for 2012, well ahead of the 66% 2011 return that put her in the #1 spot last year…and she’s still #2.  Ruby is sitting on 83% through five weeks.  How long can I keep Reagan from giving her grandmother the Reagan Stink-Eye?  However long I can keep her from finding out she’s not #1.
  • Reagan (REGN) +13.2%.  When I created the FSX in April 2010, REGN was an inaugural member.  At that time, the stock traded at $26.  Today it closed just below $97.  Can you do that math?  If you can’t, I bet Reagan can.  What accounts for that stellar performance?  In a word—everything.  In a picture—what Reagan did to her lunch bag yesterday after Katie told her to write her name on it.

  • Lee (MSTR +10.3%) and Katie (CATY +8.7%).  Will I have to travel way too much this year?  Yes.  Will Katie have to manage me carefully as I sprout bristles and fangs?  Yes.  But as of this week, we know the dates and many of the details, meaning that a concrete bristle-and-fang management strategy can be developed.  If the market hates anything more than it hates traveling, it’s uncertainty about traveling.
  • Jenny (JNY) +8.1%.  The market has struggled to get a handle on Jenny in 2012.  She’s nearly 7% lower for the year, but she rallied hard on Friday, outpacing the FSX for the first time in a long time.  She’s having ‘the emotions’ (her words) more and more frequently, but she’s also showing academic aptitude and effort on a Reaganesque level.  She matched Nicholas (her school’s equivalent of me at age 10) in end-of-quarter test scores and made straight As on her report card.  We thought that moving into the accelerated classes this year might cause her grades to suffer, but the opposite has happened.  What is even more gratifying for me is that she’s determined to do even better—to get her 96s and 97s up to 100s.  I don’t know how long we can keep the emotions from taking her teenage train off the rails, but for the moment, she’s holding it all together magnificently.
  • Mario the Younger (SUP) +7.2%.  I have a theory about the recent bull run in Mario (+19% in 2012) that might be controversial.  You see, I recall clearly that there was significant dragging of feet related to the proposal of marriage last year, much of it attributable to a laser-like focus on the Steelers’ Super Bowl run.  With no such playoff run to distract him this year, Mario is more focused on his impending wedding than he would otherwise be.  This is important, because delaying engagement preparations means only that the engagement is delayed.  Delaying wedding preparations means rocketing fountains of disaster.  Would it have been better if the Steelers had even just the second-worst secondary in the NFL, and thus had beaten the Tebows?  Certainly.  But this market is a glass-half-full market.

Decliners

  • Zero (ZIP) -5.1%.  Jenny has determined that Charlotte and Zero are (1) definitely leaving Chicago in May and (2) definitely not moving to Long Island (Charlotte’s already made the transformation from New York, Jenny says).  In fact, my sources (Jenny) say Zero could be relocating to the Mount Airy Guitar Center in the near future.  My other sources (Katie) tell me that no such Guitar Center exists, so Zero has a lot of construction work to do.
  • Brinkley (BCO) -13%.  BCO stock fell right off a cliff on Thursday (down 19%); with his current combination of speed, clumsiness, and enthusiasm, Brinky’s going to need extra attention from his parents and sisters to avoid falling off an actual cliff.  And by falling I mean leaping.  I shouldn’t have laughed, but there was a moment yesterday that could have gotten us on America’s Funniest Videos if I’d had a camera rolling (yes, AFV still comes on).  Zondro always acts crazy when he first comes in the house, and after I’d let him in in the afternoon he was running around the family room jumping on and off the couches.  Brinky thought this was hilarious, so I kept Zondy going for a few minutes, calling him off one couch and onto the other.  Then everything went slo-mo for about five seconds.  Too late, I saw that Brinky had walked in front of the couch I’d just whistled for Zondro to jump on, and there was no way to stop the dog or move the baby.  Zondro smacked into Brinky’s face and down he went, like a fat cartoon Koala bear.  It wasn’t funny until I could see he wasn’t injured, and then it was hilarious.
Name Ticker 2/3/2012 Change
Brinkley BCO $24.59 -3.61
Charlotte ICE $122.32 +5.87
Dustin DST $51.15 +2.19
Icarus FLOW $3.85 +0.05
Jenny JNY $9.82 +0.74
Jodi Ann JOY $95.71 +2.59
Justin WOLF $3.43 +0.14
Katie CATY $17.38 +1.39
Lee MSTR $126.45 +11.80
Lisa LNCE $23.48 +0.83
Lucas LEI $2.36 -0.12
Lulu LULU $64.58 +0.46
Marcus MCS $13.10 +0.55
Mario T.E. MGEE $46.11 +0.90
Mario T.Y. SUP $19.60 +1.32
Marisa MOLX $27.46 +0.85
Namilita NL $14.86 +0.70
Nicole B. NI $23.01 +0.11
Nicole L. COL $59.33 +1.10
Reagan REGN $96.86 +11.32
Ruby RJET $6.26 +0.89
Wilson WILC $4.71 +0.12
Winston ED $58.82 -0.07
Zero ZIP $15.30 -0.83
Zondro ZQK $4.60 +0.23

 

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5 Comments »

  1. I’m glad Jenny rallied because it really was an up week for her. And I think it’s funny you said AFV like the girls do.

    Comment by Katie E — February 3, 2012 @ 17:15 | Reply

  2. Wow, Reagan. Epic. It’s so true.
    I want to thank Jenny for coining such excellent phrases. I know the emotions all too well, and now I finally have the perfect way to refer to them. I am curious how I made the transformation from New York but not from North Carolina. I’m sure she’ll have the perfect explanation.

    Comment by Charlotte — February 3, 2012 @ 18:16 | Reply

    • I’d guess (without confirming with the expert) that it’s maybe something about how the transformation from New York is major because it’s such a big city and different life – so you should only do that once in your life. North Carolina comings and goings don’t require transformation.

      Comment by euregirlsandboys — February 4, 2012 @ 08:21 | Reply

      • I think it’s because Jenny wants Charlotte to move into the house next door.

        Comment by lbej — February 4, 2012 @ 08:29

  3. I was wondering what the heck turned you into Hugh Grant this week… Three weddings and a comic con. 😉

    Comment by Lisa — February 4, 2012 @ 08:01 | Reply


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