Mr. Sensitive

December 23, 2011

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:52

I was hoping I could get a guest FSX update out of someone visiting this week, but the timing didn’t work out, and so I turned to Reagan.  Alas, she was feeling too much Christmas spirit and not enough whimsy, and so her efforts alternated between too-plain-to-post and too-mean-to-post.  Fortunately, I’m not afflicted with Christmas spirit in the least—unless that’s why I have a stomach ache.

The market rallied this week, if only enough to recover last week’s losses.  The victory of the Republican corporatists over the Republican crazies is getting no play in the market; I expect that’s because investors have such low expectations for anything substantive to come out of the political process that they’re no longer considering Washington as a factor in valuations or earnings estimates.  With so many people committed to derailing the train, is it any wonder that the market’s stopped waiting at the station?  For my part, I was hoping the crazies would blow up their own caucus, and I think there’s a still a good chance that they will.  I do honestly pity the Speaker of the House, and I can’t imagine what it must be like to deal with all these prima donna first-term lunatics.  I don’t think he has a stomach ulcer or two so much as his ulcers have a Boehner.  All I want from this is for the voters to understand what they were voting for in 2010 when they voted against the (admittedly inept) Democratic leadership in the House.  Then if they want to do it again in 2012, with full knowledge that their representatives don’t intend to participate in the political process so much as vote no on everything, so be it.  It would be like Bush’s reelection in 2004.  I didn’t think we deserved what we got in Bush’s first term, but all the disasters of the second term—FEMA’s Katrina blunders, Rumsfeld’s Iraq insurgency blinders, the financial crisis of 2008—we had all that coming.

The FSX gained 4.4% to close at 11,157, putting it back into bad-but-not-terrible range in terms of year-to-date performance.   I will pay attention next week, but only because I can’t not pay attention and not because any meaningful year-end positioning is likely to take place.  I’m going to make quite a few changes in the roster going into next year, as well, so I’m not even sure which positions are getting positioned.  Somehow I doubt we have a 900-point week in us, and absent that, we will finish in the red for 2011.

Advancers

  • Lisa (LSI) +9.0%.  There’s almost no chance of a white Christmas in Hilton Head this week, and even a sniff of spring-like weather is enough to send Lisa’s stock soaring.  Think of this week’s pop as a preview of the more formidable rally we can expect once spring is truly on the way.  Lucas (LEI +13%) looks like an even bigger HHI fan until you calculate a risk-adjusted return on him—13% is more like 3% for a less excitable person.  However you run the numbers, no one’s springier than Lisa.
  • Zondro (ZQK) +9.0%.  Earlier this week I felt guilty about leaving the dogs out in the cold—don’t worry, I’m back to not caring—so I let them spend the morning in the family room with Brinky.  What I discovered is that he is a much better baby if he has his dogs in the room with him—they’re just as good as people to him, and maybe even better, because he doesn’t get frustrated with the dogs when they don’t pick him up.
  • Marcus (MCS) +8.4%.  A man doesn’t have to apologize for deciding he wants to break with old holiday traditions and—in my opinion—he shouldn’t.  He also doesn’t have to explain to his family that he’s making that break and why but—my opinion again—he really should.  The market is funny about disclosure.  In the short term, it doesn’t want to know why a company beats earnings expectations or why a stock blows through price targets and technical resistance levels indiscriminately.  It’s a different story in the long term, though, and the market loses patience with guessing games after a few quarters.  When the market loses patience, bulls lose money.  Marcus already failed to send me his picks this week, even with a reminder.  If he pulls one of his disappearing acts in 2012—whatever the reason—I expect the market to pound him.  And by ‘the market’ I mean ‘Charlotte.’
  • Legacy Lee (LEE) +8.1%.  The new management keeps walking around the place giving me funny looks; they’re hoping I clear out early, and so is the market.  Well, you’re going to be waiting until the close of business next Friday, jerks, so you might as well pull up a chair.  And not the big chair, either, because that one’s still mine—for a week, at least.
  • Katie (CATY) +6.5%.  The recent rally in Katie (+32% in Q4) is pricing in her love of Christmas, her husband’s long-overdue haircut and our plan to quit fast food in January.  But the real kicker is the spelling proficiency shown by her daughters.  Both won their class spelling bees this month and Reagan already dominated her grade bee (the highest level she can win until next year).  Jenny’s school bee is next month and Katie has high hopes, even if Jenny herself doesn’t.  I don’t quite share the excitement, but I’m not suggesting that it’s misplaced.  Spelling is definently important.
  • Brinkley (BCO) +5.1%.  Brinky discovered this week, on his first birthday, that presents and toys are pretty awesome.  I think his presents will be as helpful for me as they are fun for him, even if the market doesn’t know it yet.

Decliners

  • Future Lee (MSTR) -1.2%.  With the spinoff of LEE underway, management will now be fully focused on MSTR.  This particular management team didn’t fare so well at the last stop (80% decline in LEE since it was added to the FSX), thus the market jitters.  Book War is on schedule and I’m very pleased with the progress to date.  Nobody around here much likes me when I’m writing, though, and that alone may explain the recent selloff.  Oh, but you know what I almost forgot?  Half of one of my molars just up and fell off yesterday and I had to make an emergency visit to the dentist to get a temporary crown.  That was after I got three fillings on Wednesday, so maybe the market is pushing me to take the Trapjaw leap in 2012.

  • Wilson (WILC) -2.3%.  Doesn’t share Zondy’s enthusiasm for the baby, or for life in general.
  • Zero (FRZ) -29%.  Zero will certainly miss Charlotte, and one should never discount the perils of being outnumbered by cats, but Katie explained the real reason for the continued pressure on his stock: she was planning to get him an ‘I Am T-Pain’ mic but she forgot and now it’s too late.  Case closed.

Name Ticker 12/23/2011 Change
Brinkley BCO $26.57 +1.30
Charlotte ICE $120.12 +2.44
Dustin DST $46.49 +0.49
Icarus FLOW $3.50 -0.05
Jenny LEN $19.37 +0.60
Justin WOLF $2.88 +0.18
Katie CATY $14.85 +0.90
Lee MSTR $107.35 -1.33
Legacy Lee LEE $0.74 +0.06
Lisa LSI $5.91 +0.49
Lucas LEI $2.35 +0.27
Lulu LULU $47.91 +2.65
Marcus MCS $13.29 +1.03
Mario T.E. PBY $11.20 +0.37
Mario T.Y. SUP $16.62 +0.51
Marisa MOLX $24.24 +1.48
Nicole B. NI $23.42 +0.89
Nicole L. COL $55.64 +1.94
Reagan REGN $55.57 +2.57
Ruby RBY $3.58 -0.04
Wilson WILC $4.59 -0.11
Winston HWD $10.70 +0.38
Zero FRZ $0.25 -0.10
Zondro ZQK $3.77 +0.31
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4 Comments »

  1. Brother, you’ve got me pegged. There are even flowers still in bloom here! I’m giddy 🙂

    Comment by Lisa — December 24, 2011 @ 08:32 | Reply

  2. Let’s all take the Trapjaw leap!

    Comment by Charlotte — December 24, 2011 @ 10:17 | Reply

    • Hey! We posted at almost the exact same time! JYNX.

      Comment by Marcus — December 24, 2011 @ 10:20 | Reply

  3. In the interest of full disclosure, I remembered that I need to make picks right up until I forgot about it. I wish I had a good excuse, too — something about school or being sick or driving around to look at Christmas lights. Instead, I was trying to join the Thieves Guild in Skyrim. Yes, I succeeded, but I realized Thursday night about 9 o’clock, as Jodi Ann asked me if I was still alive, that the cost was pretty steep. I got a nice set of armor for my troubles, though! In the fake world I’m living in!

    Jodi’s on her way back from last-minute shopping. The computer is open for us to do picks, and Skyrim has been locked away from my addicted hands. So I will only be one game in the crapper. Of course, that means I will lose to Mario by one game. It’s the way of the beast.

    Comment by Marcus — December 24, 2011 @ 10:18 | Reply


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