Mr. Sensitive

November 18, 2011

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 17:08

That was a very surreptitious week that just moved through here.  It seemed like nothing was happening when it was seemingly not happening, but then you checked the tape and we’re down 3-4 percent on all the major averages and back in the red for 2011.  What happened?  The big money, the part of it that’s not playing some theme unrelated to Europe, is a bit skittish, to put it gently.  So many nasty things might happen, after all.  Italy’s new coalition government might founder—except it hasn’t.  The same thing could happen in Greece—unless it doesn’t.  And the Germans are bristling about constitutional this, that and the other—constitutionality being something about which we know they really don’t give a flying crap—and they are threatening to scuttle the whole thing.  But they haven’t scuttled it, not yet.  You can grasp the problem quickly enough by watching the stock market averages intraday.  The averages drift around the unchanged line on low volume until the last hour of trading, and then the sell orders swamp buys and the market tanks.  The problem is that all the prospective news that might break is thought to be negative, and no one wants to be long overnight if that happens.  The good news for bulls is that we’re still well off the lows for the year.  But maybe that’s not such good news, after all, if the bulls were expecting a massive rally on the back of a Euro settlement (which we’re not going to get before there’s a real crisis, by the way).  Valuations aren’t all that depressed, Euro-jitters notwithstanding, so any rally that outstrips the fundamentals could peter out fast.  Bottom line, I’m not as sanguine about year-end prospects as I was a month ago.

The Family Stock Index was the laggard once again this week, ending down by 5.2% to plumb the lowest levels since the early-October swoon.  At 10,537, the hole we’ve dug for 2011 is back to 1400 points and we don’t have much time left if we’re going to climb out.  Adding insult to injury, we couldn’t manage a single positive component for the week—even during the worst of the September and October carnage I think we managed to get one or two stocks into the green.  It’s not looking good for us here, unless of course you think that the FSX is just some crazy thing I waste lots of time on and it has no bearing on reality.  That would be the sensible position to take.  But you’re reading this update, aren’t you?  So maybe you’re not any more sensible than I am.

Market-Beating Losers

  • Jenny (LEN) -2.4%.  Jenny went to a Twilight marathon at the movie theater last night, culminating in the midnight premiere of Breaking Dawn Part 1.  She had wanted to go so badly, but hadn’t really believed it could happen, she gushed to her mother.  It was like a dream come true.  So why is she down?  Because her dream was to see Twilight as soon as possible, and Twilight sucks.
  • Katie (CATY) -5.8%.  Katie won a Kindle Fire in a drawing this week, like a gift from Jeff Bezos himself to his number one fan.  So why is she down?  When I asked her last night, she was unusually dismissive of the market’s acumen.  ‘I told you, I’m up,’ she said.  Good enough for me.

Total Losers

  • Charlotte (ICE) -8.4%.  We’ve had a solid string of hard frosts here in NC, and that means that the glaciers are probably halfway down Michigan Avenue up where Charlotte still is.  My choice of stock tickers for Charlotte and Zero is proving eerily, even chillingly (get it?) prophetic.
  • Zondro (ZQK) -9.0%.  Keep digging, Zondy.  Just know that this story ends in barbed wire up the snout-holes.
  • Winston (HWD) -9.0%.  What the hell—let’s have barbed wire all around!
  • Lulu (LULU) -9.1%.  Katie is something of a one-trick pony when it comes to offering up suggestions for the FSX update.  Last week she tried to tie everything and everyone to Daylight Savings Time, and this week her one trick is holy-crap-it’s-cold.  She had some solid reasoning to back up the winter-stinks viewpoint for Lulu, though.  If I’m remembering correctly, the problematic sequence goes like this: as it gets colder, the cats don’t accept it and still go to the front door to be let out all the time; only it is super-cold now, and even they get over the freezing pretty quick, so they want to come back in; then they decide to give it another go and they head back to the front door, pacing and reeowering to be let out; but it’s still cold so they want in again after five minutes; and so on.  Lulu is loud and infuriating when she wants anything, so Katie concluded that over time, I would throw heavier and heavier things at her in an entirely level-headed response to her awfulness.  That can’t end well, at least not for Lulu.
  • Ruby (RBY) -11.6%.  Reagan’s going to rip that Bizarro Brinky Cup unless Boo-boo loads up on Dolphins and Colts to finish the season.  Does she have enough un-dignity to do it?  Either way, it sets up attractively for the bears (the ones in the market, not the ones in Chicago).
Name Ticker 11/18/2011 Change
Brinkley BCO $25.76 -1.35
Charlotte ICE $117.21 -10.68
Dustin DST $47.92 -1.63
Icarus FLOW $2.59 -0.07
Jenny LEN $17.67 -0.44
Justin WOLF $2.38 -0.15
Katie CATY $12.89 -0.79
Lee MSTR $124.46 -5.35
Legacy Lee LEE $0.63 -0.05
Lisa LSI $5.66 -0.28
Lucas LEI $1.90 -0.11
Lulu LULU $49.06 -4.89
Marcus MCS $12.12 -0.33
Mario T.E. PBY $11.21 -0.71
Mario T.Y. SUP $15.69 -0.78
Marisa MOLX $23.70 -1.21
Nicole B. NI $22.00 -0.47
Nicole L. COL $53.71 -1.55
Reagan REGN $49.81 -3.12
Ruby RBY $3.58 -0.47
Wilson WILC $5.40 -0.25
Winston HWD $10.25 -0.99
Zero FRZ $0.68 -0.02
Zondro ZQK $3.05 -0.30
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