Mr. Sensitive

October 3, 2011

FSX Third Quarter Review

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 15:46

Why can’t I be more like Captain America?  He’s had a rough go of it: frozen in ice for decades, fired and replaced by a guy called Johnny Walker and then by another guy called Nuke, and finally shot by his girlfriend and resurrected in a story that I didn’t even finish reading once I realized it involved time travel.  But he always keeps his chemically-enhanced granite chin up, no matter what.  So when they told Cap that he was going to fall to his death while being shot at by dudes with laser guns before there even were laser guns, he pushed back and said to slap something inspirational on the cover so the kids don’t lose heart.

“To be reborn.”  As what, a pancake?  Clearly Cap made them put that on the cover after the fact.  But it’s all about positivity with him.

The Family Stock Index had this kind of feel in the third quarter, the feel of Captain America if he were a less Captain and less America and more fish dropped out of a plane.  The FSX dropped by a tidy 20% in the quarter falling from 12,530 to 10,007.  We significantly underperformed the other major averages, as the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P gave up 12%, 13%, and 14%, respectively, and we closed barely one percent above our 52-week low.  (The update on that is that we blew through the 2011 low today, down more than 500 points at last check.)  I should be positive, like Cap, or, failing that, I should glory in the negative as I am sometimes wont to do.  I leave others to look on the bright side, because after all I have very sensitive eyes and sunlight makes me angry.  But I’m not enjoying this.  I want to laugh when Cap hits the pavement, but I can’t.  When I look at the fundamentals, I can’t make the case for a rebound in the next year, let alone the next quarter.  I need a scapegoat.  Once I work my way around to how it’s all Lulu’s fault I will feel a little better—not much, but some.

No component changes this time; I would need a really compelling reason to screw up all the formulas in my spreadsheet this late in the year.  The one change I’m making to the FSX now and retroactive to the dawn of time is one that you could have already detected already if you didn’t just gloss over all the numbers like I know you do.  I adjusted the scale of the FSX is what I did, multiplying the index level by a factor of ten, so that our April 2010 starting level of 1000 is now 10,000.  That doesn’t affect our relative prosperity or poverty of spirit, but it means that the FSX can be more of a Dow Industrials analog than an S&P 500 analog in terms of how it’s quoted.  By convention, if not by rule, daily changes in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are quoted in percentage terms, whereas moves in the Dow Industrial Average are quoted in absolute terms.  So the wrap-up of a positive day’s action might sound like this: the Dow was up 200 points, the S&P 500 rose by two percent and the Nasdaq added two-and-a-half percent.  It turns out I think more in Dow terms than in S&P 500 terms;: when I call Katie in the middle of the day to tell her about the latest market rout, I tell her how many points down the market is, and I use the Dow as my proxy for the market.  Of course the S&P 500 is a better proxy for the overall market, but tell me that 500 points down doesn’t sound more bad-ass than 5 percent down.  So everything will be the same for the next three months, except that I will feel cooler when I talk about it.  I don’t feel like writing about individuals beyond what I said in the Friday update, so you’ll have to feel bad about yourself without my help.  Here’s a chart to facilitate any self-flagellation you may wish to do:

Name Ticker 6/30/2011 9/30/2011 Dollar Chg Pct Chg
1 Nicole B. NI $20.25 $21.38 +1.13 +5.6
2 Reagan REGN $56.71 $58.20 +1.49 +2.6
3 Marcus MCS $9.88 $9.95 +0.07 +0.7
4 Ruby RBY $3.52 $3.44 -0.08 -2.3
5 Charlotte ICE $124.71 $118.26 -6.45 -5.2
6 Mario T.E. PBY $10.93 $9.87 -1.06 -9.7
7 Lulu LULU $55.91 $48.69 -7.22 -12.9
8 Nicole L. COL $61.69 $52.76 -8.93 -14.5
9 Justin WOLF $3.04 $2.56 -0.48 -15.8
10 Wilson WILC $7.08 $5.94 -1.14 -16.1
11 Dustin DST $52.80 $43.83 -8.97 -17.0
12 Marisa MOLX $25.77 $20.37 -5.40 -21.0
13 Lee MSTR LEE -21.1
14 Brinkley BCO $29.83 $23.31 -6.52 -21.9
15 Jenny LEN $18.15 $13.54 -4.61 -25.4
16 Lisa LSI $7.12 $5.18 -1.94 -27.2
17 Mario T.Y. SUP $22.11 $15.45 -6.66 -30.1
18 Katie CATY $16.39 $11.38 -5.01 -30.6
19 Zondro ZQK $4.70 $3.05 -1.65 -35.1
20 Icarus FLOW $3.56 $2.21 -1.35 -37.9
21 Winston HWD $16.62 $10.15 -6.47 -38.9
22 Lucas LEI $2.84 $1.30 -1.54 -54.2
23 Zero FRZ $2.81 $1.25 -1.56 -55.5
N/A Lee LEE $0.89 $0.78 -0.11 -12.4
N/A Lee MSTR $162.68 $114.07 -48.61 -29.9

 

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1 Comment »

  1. You make it sound like you call me in the middle of the day quite often, and not like you hate talking on the phone.

    Comment by euregirlsandboys — October 3, 2011 @ 16:57 | Reply


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