Mr. Sensitive

July 22, 2011

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:57

The headlines are just as useless this week as last: there’s some stuff happening, sure, but a lot more stuff maybe possibly happening and then not actually happening.  In the first category we have the $29 billion Express Scripts-Medco merger and a stream of blowout earnings reports from IBM, Apple, GE, and others.  In the latter category we have the U.S. debt mess and the Greek debt mess (was there a bailout?  was there a default?  why is the Travolta musical called Grease anyway?  the whole thing gets named after the gel the guys put in their hair?  I would have called it Bangin’ And Dancin’).  It’s all overblown and overwrought.  The market has a few tough days and the hand-wringing becomes endemic: oh no and my god about unemployment, budget deficits, trade deficits, commodity inflation, land sharks, etc.  Then Apple sells a gazillion i-somethings and we rally like none of that matters.  Which is because it doesn’t matter, at least not until it does.  All the imbalances in the housing-finance complex that nearly crushed us when they coalesced in late 2008 were obvious and egregious from at least 2006 on.  The hand-wringing actually offends me more than the glass-is-all-full-no-I-swear punditry.  Professorial clowns predicting the suffering they won’t themselves experience strikes me as unsavory, since a lot of nasty will have to transpire just so they can say ‘I told you so’ over pâté at the next Davos summit.  When the hand-wringing starts because the Dow is threatening to fall back below 12,000, it’s important to remember that we were at 6600 two years ago and it’s taken an awful lot of optimism and easy money to get us to the point where Dow 10,000 is a worst-case scenario for all but the beariest of the bears.  Dow 12,000 isn’t the end of the world, and neither is Dow 10,000.  The end of the world is Dow 0, with all financial assets becoming worthless.  I’m not panicking until I think that’s where we’re headed, although, to be fair, I don’t have any money in stocks so I can afford to be cavalier.  My Amazing Fantasy #15 was up another 25% year-over-year, in fact, so nyahh to all the CFAs and MBAs everywhere.

The Family Stock Index posted a positive week, up 1.1% to 1276.07, but we trailed the major averages, all of which rose by two percent or so.  Breadth was decent—17 advancers to 7 decliners—but not spectacular, and we were led by the pets, which is certainly not how you want to be led.  I don’t like how we’re positioned for the balance of the summer and I wouldn’t be surprised if we test our month-ago 2011 lows in the range of 1190-1200 within the next two to three weeks.  Or maybe I’m feeling pessimistic because I’ve already got tendonitis in my elbows and Brinkley’s not getting lighter.

Advancers

  • Zero (FRZ) +7.0%.  Yeah, I’d love a bag of ice.  You say I have to buy a guitar with that?  Have you been outside?  I’ll take five guitars if I have to.
  • Zondro (ZQK) +5.4%.  I’ve noticed it before when I’ve had occasion to shine a flashlight in his direction, but now I’ve got photographic evidence: Zondro has crazy eyes.  They both look like normal, brown doggy eyes, but when light is shined on them—such as a camera flash—one clearly shoots ordinary red laser beams whereas the other shoots green.  The market had not fully valued the green laser eye, not until this week.

Here he is, with Brinky beside him blazing standard red:

Here he is again, this time with the girls and a watermelon wrapped in fur and pain:

  • LULU +4.8%.  No known stink should have been able to withstand the bleach and Pine-sol beatdown I delivered yesterday, but as always, the proof is in the pooping.  It seems that Lulu has synthesized a new transuranic element, but one with a much longer, and smellier, half-life. Lululium?  She can collect her Nobel Prize in Chemistry at the same time I receive my Physics prize for the discovery of Yogurt Face.  Unless I set her on fire first.
  • Marisa (MOLX) 4.1%.  Marisium isn’t nearly as catchy as Lululium, but Marisa may in fact be the creator of the sublime stink in the closet.  Cat food alone could scarcely produce that odor, but mix in a little bird skull and you have a true colonic calamity.
  • Jenny (LEN +4.8%), Reagan (REGN +3.4%) and Brinkley (BCO +3.8%).  The rally in all three of my children is owing to this weekend’s overnight stay at the Great Wolf Lodge and adjoining water park.  This is Jenny’s big tenth birthday extravaganza, and she’s taking two of her friends for a girls’ weekend in lieu of a birthday party.  Reagan not only gets to go, but she gets to bring a friend of her own.  The Empress is providing chaperone services, and the decline in her stock price this week may be due in part to the fact that she is going to be outnumbered five-to-one by little girls.  So why would Brinkley rally on this news?  Because he will be staying at home with me, and will have a full day and night in which to deliver the Operation Simba coup de grace, during which time I cannot be reinforced.  This is a first for us, and I have the feeling that only one of us will be walking away from the battle.  Lucky for me Brinkley can’t walk.
  • Nicole B. (NI) +3.0%.  All of the WELL JUSTINs and concrete metaphors have finally permeated the market’s consciousness, and the merger arbitrage trade is on.  Nicole pushes to a new 52-week high this week and Justin trades down as the shorts pile in.  Let’s just hope I don’t have to sit on insider information for two months this time.  If Justin drags his feet with his Nicole as long as Mario did with his, I’ll propose to her myself just so that I have something different to write about.
  • Marcus (MCS) +3.0%.  Speaking of foot-dragging, no word from Marcus on when he might be making the pilgrimage to NC to revive his stagnant stock.  But perhaps the market knows something I don’t.  SECRET VISIT?

Decliners

  • Katie (CATY) -1.8%.   The Empress has learned in the last few weeks that she did in fact have childhood food and drug allergies that Ruby and Mario neglected to mention, at least not until Brinkley broke out in a rash from eating strawberries and Katie’s joints quit bending after she started an antibiotic.  The market, being forward-looking, is now wondering what other allergies and intolerances have been lost to the parental sands of time.  Good thing Katie already refuses to eat shellfish.
  • Nicole L. (COL) -2.2%.  Nicole missed earnings this week and the market was not kind, knocking more than three dollars off the stock price when the news hit on Friday.  Of course, Nicole will be part of a two-income household soon enough.  Perhaps investor fears could be allayed if the market had even the first clue as to what Mario actually does for a living.  Something about golf?  Something with computers?  No, the other one does computers.  I’ll bet even Katie doesn’t know.
  • Justin (WOLF) -3.3%.  Specifically, I will propose to Nicole that she and I cut on Justin a little bit until he gets his mind right.  What did you think I meant?
Name Ticker 7/22/2011 Change
Brinkley BCO $31.39 +1.16
Charlotte ICE $127.72 +0.22
Dustin DST $56.10 +1.02
Icarus FLOW $3.45 +0.01
Jenny LEN $18.60 +0.86
Justin WOLF $3.49 -0.12
Katie CATY $15.40 -0.26
Lee MSTR $171.68 +1.99
Lee LEE $0.95 +0.01
Lisa LSI $6.71 +0.02
Lucas LEI $2.85 -0.07
Lulu LULU $63.44 +2.90
Marcus MCS $10.06 +0.29
Mario T.E. PBY $11.36 -0.27
Mario T.Y. SUP $22.01 +0.20
Marisa MOLX $25.20 +1.00
Nicole B. NI $21.06 +0.62
Nicole L. COL $57.41 -1.27
Reagan REGN $57.47 +1.88
Ruby RBY $3.37 -0.06
Wilson WILC $6.94 -0.07
Winston HWD $17.36 +0.24
Zero FRZ $2.75 +0.18
Zondro ZQK $5.45 +0.28
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3 Comments »

  1. I forgot to say in my verbal comments about this post that I also really enjoyed the part about Grease. I think I would just boring-ly call it Sandy and Danny. Grease is the worst song from the movie.

    Comment by euregirlsandboys — July 22, 2011 @ 20:23 | Reply

  2. No secret visit to report yet! I’m working on it, though. I’m not sure what that means, but I’m working on it. It’s also funny to see my stock go up; this was the first week in a while that I had any positive gains related to school, and there were a few of them. Of course, the fact that school is a part of my summer shenanigans is a bad sign all by itself.

    Comment by Marcus — July 23, 2011 @ 17:38 | Reply

    • If you reported it, it wouldn’t be a secret.

      Comment by lbej — July 23, 2011 @ 17:46 | Reply


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