Mr. Sensitive

July 15, 2011

FSX Friday Update

Filed under: Uncategorized — lbej @ 16:52

The market is down (S&P -2.1%), and the punditry seems to be focused on the same old headlines.   I’m slightly handicapped in that respect because I’m ignoring the headlines.  Hyperbole and hyperventilation are not journalism; I don’t need to go to newspaper school with Justin to know that.  I think I couldn’t care less about Greece, except that then I care even less about the U.S. debt ceiling than I care about Greece, and I care less about Casey Anthony than I have ever cared about anything.  I’m just following the market and relying on my own experience and intuition in speculating on its behavior.  Stock prices are too high, not absurdly so, but so.  The financials are causing the biggest problems because their balance sheets are still terrible.  Okay, so it’s not entirely true that I don’t care about the possibility of a U.S. default if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling.  It would be very interesting.  I just don’t care about the posturing and sound-biting that has replaced meaningful negotiation in the countdown to default.  It makes my head hurt, listening to these people.  The Republicans represent two constituencies, as I have said before: rich people and crazy people.  As for the Democrats, I don’t know who they represent anymore, and I don’t think they know either.  As a result, the Republicans are clearly driving the process, or lack thereof.  If I were the President and the Democratic leadership(?) in Congress, I would just walk away from the table.  I would just say that this bickering is pointless, and if you want a deal, Republicans, here’s the deal: for every dollar in spending cuts we want a dollar of tax increases for large corporations (not small businesses) and households earning over $500,000 per year.  That’s it, that’s the framework, take it or leave it.  Honestly, I don’t know what the Republicans would do.  The rich people absolutely don’t want a default, because the carnage will be concentrated in the financial markets first and foremost, and that hurts them more than it hurts the middle class and the poor.  The crazy people absolutely do want a default, because they want whatever manner of Armageddon they can possibly engineer (this includes the crazy end-times religious people and the crazy Ayn Rand people, both of whom would welcome the end of the world as we know it, despite hating each other more than they hate all the non-crazies).  I think it would be worth the short-term economic pain to wash all these lunatics out of the political system, and after all, the economy already stinks for everyone who isn’t a hedge fund manager or investor.  A default would allow the Republican Party to tear itself apart, and there’s nothing I can think of that would be better for the country long-term.  So that’s what I would do.  Make a fair deal, half spending cuts and half tax increases, or blow it up.  Let’s just make sure that, if we can’t make all our debt payments, we pay the Chinese last.  If there’s ever been a case of predatory lending in international finance, China’s pattern of taking down U.S. Treasury issuance to manipulate their currency is that.  Of course, what will actually happen if the crazies officially scuttle a debt-ceiling deal is the same thing that happened when they refused to authorize the bank bailout in the fall of 2008: the Dow will drop 1,000 points or so, the richies will have a few of the crazies shot, and Nays will magically turn into Yays.  So maybe I do care about that.  But I really don’t care about the Casey Anthony thing.  People say things like, “If it was your child or your grandchild, you would be outraged, too!”  And that’s true, of course.  But it’s like wailing, “If it were freezing where you are, you would be wearing a parka, too!”  I would, yes, but it’s sunny and hot here, and if I walk around in a parka, people will think I’m crazy.

The Family Stock Index is trading roughly in line with the broader market this week, and for the entire month so far.  In fact, we are beating the S&P for July because we are underweight the stinkiness of the financials, as are the Dow and Nasdaq.  The breadth of last week’s strength is mirrored in this week’s comprehensive weakness; if a stock’s red—and 14 of them are—it’s pretty darn maroon.  The FSX closed Friday down 1.6% to 1261.61, off the lows of the session but only just.  We’re back to unchanged for July after this week’s decline.  Anybody feel unchanged?

Advancers

  • Justin (WOLF) +11.7%.  Remember, when you mix the concrete you’ve got about 15 minutes to work with, so stay focused.  But the market is clearly saying that it’s time to add the water.
  • Lee (MSTR LEE) +3.1%.  So there are 24 stocks in the Family Stock Index, right, and two of them are me.  Where would you suppose those two stocks are ranked, in terms of year-to-date performance, if you just had to throw out a guess?  LEE, as you probably know, is ranked 24th, dead last, down 62 percent in 2011 compared to a decline in the 30s for the next-worst performer.  And how has MSTR done in 2011?  Up 99% so far, #1 in the FSX by a wide margin.  So am I the best or am I the worst?  Yes, I am.
  • Dustin (DST) +0.4%.  The rally in Dustin continues this week, and Katie tells me he got two new jobs so it’s no wonder he’s up again.  Because I don’t know what Dustin does, or what his jobs might entail, I can only look to the market to determine whether more work for him is a good thing on balance.  One would assume that it’s good for Dustin to have more work, unless he’s an assassin or a Republican congressman.

Decliners

  • Marcus (MCS) -4.1%.  Since he paid us a visit last month, Justin is up 26%.   I’m just saying.
  • Nicole L. (COL) -5.2%.  Netflix (NFLX) hit a new all-time high above $300 this week, despite running dangerously afoul of Nicole with its new billing plan.  It seems that the market has called the fight in the Nicole-Netflix bout, and the decision doesn’t favor the FSX.  As a side note, if I were Google, Apple, Microsoft, or Amazon, I would offer $600 a share—$30 billion—for NFLX right now, and I’d be prepared to go to $900 if that’s what it takes.
  • Reagan (REGN -6.8%), Jenny (LEN -5.9%), and Katie (CATY -5.7%).  We’re going to watch every episode of TNG, and then we’re going to watch every episode of DS9 (hurry up, Netflix, or I’m coming in on Nicole’s side), and if the ladies complain even once, we’ll watch Voyager, too.  I won’t enjoy that one any more than they will, but you know that won’t stop me.  This is the history of the future, damn it.  It’s important.
  • Lisa (LSI) -8.0%.  A 40th birthday is guaranteed to move the market.  This is the age of the mid-life crisis, the time in life when you start to think back on all your favorite Motley Crue songs and realize that if you don’t take Vince Neil’s advice to heart now, it will soon be too late.  The market knows this, and you only need to listen to “Kickstart My Heart” once to realize that the risk of spontaneous naked skydiving was not fully priced into LSI.
  • Marisa (MOLX) -8.4%.  I guess we know with certainty who’s been having litter box containment issues the past few weeks.  I’m sure having an entire litter room was pleasant, but those days are over.  If I catch someone in the act of pooping outside the box, that someone’s cat hole is going to meet the business end of my caulk gun.
  • LULU -50%.  How does it taste, stupid fat cat?  One day you’re a $120 stock, the next day you’re trading at just $60, and no one deserves it more.  What do you mean, there was 2-for-1 stock split?  So Lulu was actually higher by a few cents?  Damn it, universe.  One of these days you’re going to push me too far.
Name Ticker 7/15/2011 Change
Brinkley BCO $30.23 -1.02
Charlotte ICE $127.50 -0.90
Dustin DST $55.08 +0.23
Icarus FLOW $3.44 -0.13
Jenny LEN $17.74 -1.11
Justin WOLF $3.61 +0.38
Katie CATY $15.69 -0.95
Lee MSTR $169.69 +4.97
Lee LEE $0.94 +0.03
Lisa LSI $6.69 -0.58
Lucas LEI $2.92 +0.10
Lulu LULU $60.54 +0.41
Marcus MCS $9.77 -0.42
Mario T.E. PBY $11.63 +0.07
Mario T.Y. SUP $21.81 -0.45
Marisa MOLX $24.20 -2.22
Nicole B. NI $20.44 -0.16
Nicole L. COL $58.68 -3.19
Reagan REGN $55.59 -4.05
Ruby RBY $3.43 unch
Wilson WILC $7.01 -0.07
Winston HWD $17.12 +0.04
Zero FRZ $2.57 -0.08
Zondro ZQK $5.17 +0.05
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